پهنه بندي شاخص آسيب پذيري ساختاري ناشي از تغيير اقليم (SVCCI) (مطالعه موردي استان كردستان)

Zoning the Structural Vulnerability Index Due to Climate Change (SVCCI) (Case study: Kurdistan province)

زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف : ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎت اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ آﯾﻨﺪه ﯾﮑﯽ از ﺑﺰرگﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺶ روي ﺑﺸﺮ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ اﺛﺮات ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﺷﺪﯾﺪي ﺑﺮ ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻣﯽ-ﮔﺬارد. ﯾﮑﯽ از روشﻫﺎي ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺧﺴﺎرت ﻫﺎي ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺑﻮﺟﻮد آﻣﺪه، ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ آﺳﯿﺐﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎري ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﯾﺎ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ )SVCCI( اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ در ﺳﻄﺢ اﺳﺘﺎن ﮐﺮدﺳﺘﺎن ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. روش ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ : در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از دادهﻫﺎي 11 اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﻮاﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ در ﺑﺎزه زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 1395 – 1380 ﺑﺮاي 10 ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن اﺳﺘﺎن ﮐﺮدﺳﺘﺎن، ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ اﺟﺰاي ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﺎرش، ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺧﺸﮑﯽ و ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ و ﺗﻌﺮق ﭘﺘﺎﻧﺴﯿﻞ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ اﺳﺖ. در اداﻣﻪ ﺑﺮاي ﻫﺮ ﯾﮏ از اﺟﺰاي ﺷﺎﺧﺺ، روﻧﺪ و ﺑﯽﺛﺒﺎﺗﯽ در روﻧﺪ ﺑﺎ آزﻣﻮن ﻧﺎﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮي ﻣﻦ ــ ﮐﻨﺪال ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﺳﭙﺲ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ وزندﻫﯽ ﺑﻪ روشﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻗﺪام ﺷﺪ و در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺘﻔﺎوت ﺑﻮدن واﺣﺪﻫﺎي اﺟﺰاي ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺮ ﯾﮏ از اﺟﺰا ﺑﻪ ﮐﻤﮏ ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﻪ )CN( ﻣﺆﻟﻔﻪﻫﺎ ﻧﺮﻣﺎل ﺷﺪﻧﺪ و ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ، آﺳﯿﺐﭘﺬﯾﺮﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ در اﺳﺘﺎن ﮐﺮدﺳﺘﺎن ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎت ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ : ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﻣﻘﺪار ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ در ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎي اﺳﺘﺎن ﮐﺮدﺳﺘﺎن 51/41 ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. در اﯾﻦ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن دﻫﮕﻼن ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺪار آﺳﯿﺐﭘﺬﯾﺮي و ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﺳﺮوآﺑﺎد ﮐﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺪار آﺳﯿﺐﭘﺬﯾﺮي را ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎت ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ دارﻧﺪ. ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮي : ﻫﺪف از اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، اراﯾﻪ ﯾﮏ روش ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻬﯿﻪ ﻧﻘﺸﻪ آﺳﯿﺐﭘﺬﯾﺮي اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎت اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ در دﺳﺘﺮس ﺑﻮدن و ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن دادهﻫﺎ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻣﺒﻨﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي آﯾﻨﺪه ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺗﺎ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮﻧﺪﮔﺎن ﺑﺘﻮاﻧﻨﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺧﻂﻣﺸﯽﻫﺎﯾﯽ در ﻣﻘﯿﺎس ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻧﯽ ﺑﭙﺮدازﻧﺪ ﺗﺎ ﮐﻨﺘﺮل ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮي ﺑﺮ آﺳﯿﺐﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ داﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ.

Background and Objective: Future climate fluctuations are one of the greatest challenges facing humankind, which have a profound effect on soil and water as a source of agricultural production. One of the methods for assessing the caused damage is the calculation of the structural vulnerability index due to climate change or index (SVCCI). In this study, the index is calculated in Kurdistan province. Method: In this study, using data from 11 meteorological stations in the period 1380-1396 for 10 cities of Kurdistan province, the index was calculated. To calculate the components of the index, it is necessary to calculate the precipitation index, drought index and potential evapotranspiration in the region. Then, for each of the index components, the trend and instability in the trend were examined by non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Then weighting was done in different ways and finally, due to the different units of the index components of each component, the components were normalized by means of the equation (CN) and based on the results of calculating the index, the damage and the most susceptible areas in Kurdistan province to the fluctuations of climatic factors were identified. Findings: The results of this indicator showed that the mean value of the index in the cities of Kurdistan province is 51.4. Meanwhile, Dehgolan city has the highest vulnerability and Saravabad has the least amount of vulnerability compared to the climate change fluctuations. Conclusion: The purpose of this study is to provide a method for mapping the economic vulnerability of climate fluctuations which can be the basis for future planning depending on the availability and reliability of data. So that decision makers can develop urban-scale policies to control more vulnerability to climate change.