آينده پژوهي پيشران‌ها و عوامل كليدي مؤثر بر توسعۀ حرفه‌اي مديران آموزشگاهي

Identifying the drivers and key factors affecting the professional development of school principals in the 2025 horizon with a Futures Study approach

اين پژوهش از لحاظ هدف كاربردي و از نظر روش، تركيبي از روش‌هاي اسنادي و پيمايشي و از نظر ماهيت، بر اساس روش‌هاي جديد علم آينده‌‌پژوهي، تحليلي و اكتشافي است كه با به كارگيري تركيبي از مدل‌هاي كيفي و كمي انجام گرفت. با توجه به ماهيت اين پژوهش، از روش تحليل ساختاري ميك‌‌مك و تكنيك‌هاي تحليل اثرات متقاطع بهره گرفته شد. در اين راستا، پس از برگزاري جلسات اوليۀ بحث با 12 نفر از خبرگان و متخصصان مديريت آموزشي، به عنوان جامعۀ آماري تحقيق كه از طريق روش نمونه‌‌گيري هدفمند و گلوله‌‌برفي انتخاب شده بودند، پنجاه‌‌و‌‌دو متغير اوليه در قالب هشت بعد كلي شناسايي شد. در ادامه، متغيرهاي اوليه در چارچوب ماتريس اثر متقاطع در نرم‌‌افزار آينده‌‌نگار ميك‌‌مك تعريف شد. در نهايت، با توجه به يافته‌هاي پژوهش و امتياز بالاي تأثيرگذاري مستقيم و غيرمستقيم، عوامل اصلي كليدي در آيندۀ توسعۀ حرفه‌اي مديران مدارس در افق 1404 شناسايي شدند. از بين اين عوامل، وجود برنامه‌هاي توسعۀ حرفه‌اي تأثيرگذارترين عامل كليدي در توسعۀ حرفه‌اي مديران مدارس در افق 1404 است. ارتباط مداوم نظام آموزشي با نظام‌هاي آموزشي موفق دنيا و استفاده از تجارب آنان، داشتن چشم‌‌انداز و راهبرد، آينده‌‌نگري و تفكر راهبردي سياست‌‌گذاران و برنامه‌ريزان و حمايت دولت و مجلس در درجات بعدي اهميت قرار دارند.

This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method, a combination of documentary and survey methods and in terms of nature, is based on the new methods of futures scientific, analytical and exploratory methods that have been done using a combination of qualitative and quantitative models. According to the nature of this research, Mic Mac structural analysis method and cross-impact analysis techniques have been used. In this regard, after holding the initial meetings of discussion with experts and specialists of educational management, as the statistical population of the study, selected through Targeted sampling and snowball sampling method, fifty - two primary variables were identified in eight dimensions. In the following, the initial variables were defined in the framework of the cross - impact matrix in Mic Mac futures software. Finally, according to the findings of the study and the high score of direct and indirect impact, the main key factors in the future of professional development of school Principals identified on the 2025 horizon. Among these factors, the existence of professional development programs is the most influential key factor in the professional development of school principals on the 2025 horizon. The continuous connection of the educational system with the successful educational systems of the world and the use of their experiences, having a vision and strategy, foresight and strategic thinking of policymakers and planners and the support of the government and parliament are in the next degrees. This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method, a combination of documentary and survey methods and in terms of nature, is based on the new methods of futures scientific, analytical and exploratory methods that have been done using a combination of qualitative and quantitative models. According to the nature of this research, Mic Mac structural analysis method and cross-impact analysis techniques have been used. In this regard, after holding the initial meetings of discussion with experts and specialists of educational management, as the statistical population of the study, selected through Targeted sampling and snowball sampling method, fifty - two primary variables were identified in eight dimensions. In the following, the initial variables were defined in the framework of the cross - impact matrix in Mic Mac futures software. Finally, according to the findings of the study and the high score of direct and indirect impact, the main key factors in the future of professional development of school Principals identified on the 2025 horizon. Among these factors, the existence of professional development programs is the most influential key factor in the professional development of school principals on the 2025 horizon. The continuous connection of the educational system with the successful educational systems of the world and the use of their experiences, having a vision and strategy, foresight and strategic thinking of policymakers and planners and the support of the government and parliament are in the next degrees. This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method, a combination of documentary and survey methods and in terms of nature, is based on the new methods of futures scientific, analytical and exploratory methods that have been done using a combination of qualitative and quantitative models. According to the nature of this research, Mic Mac structural analysis method and cross-impact analysis techniques have been used. In this regard, after holding the initial meetings of discussion with experts and specialists of educational management, as the statistical population of the study, selected through Targeted sampling and snowball sampling method, fifty - two primary variables were identified in eight dimensions. In the following, the initial variables were defined in the framework of the cross - impact matrix in Mic Mac futures software. Finally, according to the findings of the study and the high score of direct and indirect impact, the main key factors in the future of professional development of school Principals identified on the 2025 horizon. Among these factors, the existence of professional development programs is the most influential key factor in the professional development of school principals on the 2025 horizon. The continuous connection of the educational system with the successful educational systems of the world and the use of their experiences, having a vision and strategy, foresight and strategic thinking of policymakers and planners and the support of the government and parliament are in the next degrees. This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method, a combination of documentary and survey methods and in terms of nature, is based on the new methods of futures scientific, analytical and exploratory methods that have been done using a combination of qualitative and quantitative models. According to the nature of this research, Mic Mac structural analysis method and cross-impact analysis techniques have been used. In this regard, after holding the initial meetings of discussion with experts and specialists of educational management, as the statistical population of the study, selected through Targeted sampling and snowball sampling method, fifty - two primary variables were identified in eight dimensions. In the following, the initial variables were defined in the framework of the cross - impact matrix in Mic Mac futures software. Finally, according to the findings of the study and the high score of direct and indirect impact, the main key factors in the future of professional development of school Principals identified on the 2025 horizon.