فرامطالعه پژوهش هاي عوامل موثر بر سرقت در طول سال هاي 85 تا 96 در كلانشهر تهران و راهكارهاي مقابله با آن

Meta-study of Researches Factors influencing theft during years 85 to 96 in Tehran metropolis and strategies to deal with it

ﻫﺪف ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ اﻧﺠﺎم ﻓﺮاﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﭘﯿﺮاﻣﻮن ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻫﺎي ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ در راﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺮﻗﺖ در ﻃﻮل ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي 85 ﺗﺎ 96 در ﮐﻼﻧﺸﻬﺮ ﺗﻬﺮان و راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎي ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ آن ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. 10 ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ در ﺣﻮزه وﻗﻮع ﺳﺮﻗﺖ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﻓﺮاﻧﻈﺮي و ﻓﺮاروش ﻧﺸﺎن دادﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻫﺎي ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ در زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺠﺰء در ﻣﻮارد )ﻣﺪل ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺮج از ﭼﺎرﭼﻮب ﻧﻈﺮي و ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﭘﯿﺸﯿﻨﻪ، آزﻣﻮن ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎﺗﯽ وﺳﯿﻠﻪ اﻧﺪازه ﮔﯿﺮي، ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎﺗﯽ، ﺳﻨﺠﺶ ﭘﺎﯾﺎﯾﯽ و رواﯾﯽ، ذﮐﺮ ﻣﺤﺪودﯾﺖ و ﻣﻮاﻧﻊ ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﯽ و ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎت اﺧﻼﻗﯽ( در ﺣﺪ ﻧﺴﺒﺘﺎً ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﯽ ﻗﺮار دارﻧﺪ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﻓﺮاﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ اﻧﺪازه اﺛﺮ ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺒﯽ در ﺣﻮزه ي ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ وﻗﻮع ﺳﺮﻗﺖ در ﻣﺪل ﺛﺎﺑﺖ 0/438 و ﺗﺼﺎدﻓﯽ 0/414 ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻌﯿﺎر ﮐﻮﻫﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان اﻧﺪازه اﺛﺮ، زﯾﺎد ﺑﻮد. اﻣﺎ در ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺟﺪاﮔﺎﻧﻪ، در ﺣﻮزه ي ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ وﻗﻮع ﺳﺮﻗﺖ اﻧﺪازه اﺛﺮ ﻣﻘﻮﻟﻪ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻓﺮدي ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ از ﻣﻘﻮﻟﻪ ﻫﺎي ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺧﺎﻧﻮادﮔﯽ و ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮕﯽ- اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﺑﻮد. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﮐﯽ از ﻋﺪم ﺳﻮﮔﯿﺮي اﻧﺘﺸﺎر در ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﻓﺮاﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺑﻮد. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺎﻫﻤﮕﻨﯽ در ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت، ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﮐﻨﻨﺪه ﻫﺎ ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﮐﻨﻨﺪه ي ﺳﺎل اﻧﺠﺎم و روش ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﮔﯿﺮي ﺑﻮد.

The purpose of the present study was don meta-study about research done in relation to the theft during the years 85 to 96 in Tehran metropolis. 10 studies were identified in the field the occurrence of theft. The results part of the meta-theory and meta-method showed that the researches carried out on the subject of the research except in cases (the analytical model extracted from the theoretical framework and basics review, preliminary test of measuring instrument, operational definition, assess reliability and validity, the mention of research limitations and barriers and ethical considerations) are at a rather favorable level and also, the results of meta-analysis showed that the combined effect size index in the field of factors affecting of theft in the fixed model is 0.438 and randomized model 0.414,which according to Cohen's criterion, had a large amount of effect size. But in a separate survey, in the area of effective factors in the occurrence of theft effect size of individual factors was more than family and cultural-social factors. Results demonstrated that the publication bias in meta-analysis sample. Due to the heterogeneity in the studies, the moderators were analyzed which showed the moderating effect of the year and the sampling method.