بررسي رابطه‌ رشد اقتصادي، مصرف انرژي و انتشار گازهاي گلخانه اي (مطالعه موردي: كشورهاي منتخب سازمان همكاري اسلامي)

Study of the Relation among Economic Growth, Energy Using and Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Case study: Selected Countries of the OIC)

زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف: ﺣﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﺎي اﻧﺮژي ﺟﺰو ﻣﻬﻢ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﻮده و دﺳﺘﺮﺳﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ اﻧﺮژي ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻓﺮاﯾﻨﺪ رﺷﺪ و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ را ﻫﻤﻮار ﮐﻨﺪ. ﺗﻤﺎﯾﻞ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ ﺑﺮاي دﺳﺖ ﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺑﻪ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺼﺮف ﺑﯿﺶ ﺗﺮ ﺣﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﺎي اﻧﺮژي ﻫﻤﺮاه ﺑﻮده و ﺑﺎﻋﺚ اﻧﺘﺸﺎر اﻧﻮاع ﮔﺎزﻫﺎي ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪ اي ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. اﯾﻦ اﻣﺮ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺑﻪ وﺟﻮد آﻣﺪن ﻣﺸﮑﻼت زﯾﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﺷﺪه و ﺣﯿﺎت ﺑﺸﺮ را ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ. از اﯾﻦ رو ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ راﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﯿﻦ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي، ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي و اﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﮔﺎزﻫﺎي ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪ اي اﻫﻤﯿﺖ وﯾﮋه اي داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. روش ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ: ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ اﺳﺎس اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻗﺼﺪ دارد ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از داده ﻫﺎي 16 ﮐﺸﻮر ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن ﻫﻤﮑﺎري اﺳﻼﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺶ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﯿﻦ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي، ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي و اﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﮔﺎز CO2 را ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﮐﻨﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ و ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎ: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺑﺮآورد ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎ ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮏ ﭘﺎﻧﻞ دﯾﺘﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ در ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﻌﻨﺎداري 5 درﺻﺪ، وﺟﻮد ﻓﺮﺿﯿﻪ u ﻣﻌﮑﻮس ﮐﻮزﻧﺘﺲ در ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺻﺎدق ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. زﯾﺮا ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ رﺷﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ و ﻣﺠﺬور آن ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﻋﻼﻣﺖ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ و ﻣﻨﻔﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي در ﺑﺎزه زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 2015-1995 ﺑﺮ اﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﮔﺎز CO2 ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ و ﺑﻪ ﻟﺤﺎظ آﻣﺎري ﻣﻌﻨﺎدار داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮔﯿﺮي: ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ وﺟﻮد راﺑﻄﻪ ﻋﻠﯿﺖ ﯾﮏ ﻃﺮﻓﻪ ﺑﯿﻦ رﺷﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ و اﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﮔﺎز CO2، ﯾﻌﻨﯽ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي در ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ اﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﮔﺎز CO2 را ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺮاه داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ و ﻫﻢ ﭼﻨﯿﻦ راﺑﻄﻪ u ﻣﻌﮑﻮس رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و ﻣﯿﺰان اﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﮔﺎز CO2، ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﮐﻪ در ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ اﺑﺘﺪا ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻧﺮخ رﺷﺪ، ﻣﻘﺪار اﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﮔﺎز دي اﮐﺴﯿﺪ ﮐﺮﺑﻦ ﻧﯿﺰ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽ ﯾﺎﺑﺪ. ﺑﻌﺪ از ﯾﮏ ﻧﺮخ رﺷﺪ ﻣﻌﯿﻦ و ﺑﺎ ﻋﺒﻮر از آن، ﺑﺎ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ اﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﮔﺎز CO2 ﻧﯿﺰ در اﯾﻦ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ، ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﻣﯽ ﮔﺮدد ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﺑﺎﻻي ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ، در ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻧﻬﺎدﻫﺎ و ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن ﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ اﻗﺪام ﺑﻪ وﺿﻊ ﻗﻮاﻧﯿﻦ و ﻣﻘﺮرات زﯾﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﮐﺮده و ﺗﮑﻨﻮﻟﻮژي ﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺗﮑﻨﻮﻟﻮژي ﻫﺎي دوﺳﺖ دار ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ ﭘﯿﺸﺮﻓﺖ ﮐﺮده و ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻓﻦ آوري ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﻓﻦ آوري دوﺳﺖ دار ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ و ﻧﯿﺰ ﭘﺮداﺧﺖ ﻋﻮارض و ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎت ﻻزم ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ اﻣﮑﺎن ﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺷﻮد.

Background and Objective: Energy carriers are one of the most important factors in production and accessing to energy resources can smooth countries economic growth and development process. Also, countries inclination in order to achieving higher economic growth has accompanied with higher using of energy carriers and has led to emission of Greenhouse gas. This leads to create environmental problems threatening human life. Therefore, studying the relation among economic growth, energy using and Greenhouse gas emissions is of particular importance. Method: Accordingly, the aim of this study is to analysis the interaction among economic growth, energy using and CO2 gas using data from 16 selected countries of the OIC. Findings: The results from estimated model with data panel technique showed that in significant level of 5%, existence the Kuznets inverted U hypothesis is valid in the under-studied countries. Since, the coefficient related to GDP growth variable and its square has positive and negative sign, respectively. Furthermore, the results showed that energy using has statistically positive impact on CO2 gas emission in time period 1995-2015. Discussion and Conclusion: Given the existence of a one-way causality relationship between GDP growth and CO2 emissions, the economic growth in the studied countries has led to an increase in CO2 emissions and as well as the U reverse relation of economic growth and CO2 emissions, so that in the studied countries, by increasing the growth rate, the amount of carbon dioxide emissions will increase as well. After a certain growth rate and passing through it, with higher economic growth CO2 emissions have also declined in these countries, It is recommended that, in view of the high importance of the environment, the environmental authorities and environmental organizations have adopted appropriate environmental laws and regulations, and technologies have progressed towards eco-friendly technologies and cost financing related to changing technology to environmentally friendly technology, as well as paying taxes which taxes to improve the environment