بررسي نقش گرمايش جهاني بر نوسانات فراسنج هاي باد و فشار تراز دريا در منطقه سيستان

Investigating the Role of Global Warming on Wind Speed and Sea Level Pressure Fluctuations in Sistan Region

زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف: ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮﭘﺬﯾﺮي زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﺑﺎدﻫﺎي ﻣﺤﻠﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن در دورهي ﺗﺸﺪﯾﺪ ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ اﺳﺖ. در دﻫﻪﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ، ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ ﺳﺒﺐ ﺑﺮوز ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﻣﺤﺴﻮس در دﻣﺎي ﮐﺮهي زﻣﯿﻦ و ﻋﺎﻣﻠﯽ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار ﺑﺮ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻓﺮاﺳﻨﺞﻫﺎي ﺟﻮي از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺑﺎد ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪي ﻓﺮاﺳﻨﺞﻫﺎي ﺟﻮي، ﺗﺨﻤﯿﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬاري ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ ﺑﺮ روي اﯾﻦ ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎ از اﻫﻤﯿﺖ زﯾﺎدي ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار اﺳﺖ. روش ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺑﺎد ﻣﺤﻠﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و ﻓﺸﺎر ﺗﺮاز درﯾﺎ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ دو ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ A2 و B2 ﺧﺮوﺟﯽ ﻣﺪل ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ Hadcm3 رﯾﺰﮔﺮداﻧﯽ ﺷﺪه و ﺑﺮاي ﺳﻪ دوره زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 30 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﺗﺎ 2099 ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﯾﻦ دو ﻓﺮاﺳﻨﺞ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ و ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن دادﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮر ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺑﺎد ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪه ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي B2 ﺑﺮاي دورهﻫﺎي زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 2010- 2039 و 2069-2040 و 2099-2070 ﻣﯿﻼدي ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﻪ 0/88 ،0/67 و 1/15 ﻣﺘﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺛﺎﻧﯿﻪ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ دوره ﭘﺎﯾﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺑﺎد ﺗﺤﺖ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي A2 ﮐﻪ ﯾﮏ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي ﺑﺪﺑﯿﻨﺎﻧﻪ اﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ 1/36 و 1/57 و 1/79 ﻣﺘﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺛﺎﻧﯿﻪ ﺑﺮاي دورهﻫﺎي زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 2010- 2039 و 2069-2040 و 2099-2070 ﻣﯿﻼدي ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ دوره ﭘﺎﯾﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان ﻓﺸﺎر ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪه ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي B2 ﺑﺮاي دورهﻫﺎي زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 2010- 2039 و 2069-2040 و 2099-2070 ﻣﯿﻼدي ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﻪ 0/10 ،0/04 و 0/16 ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ دوره ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ. ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮔﯿﺮي: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻓﺸﺎر ﻫﻮا و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺑﺎد در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ در ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎل ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﯾﮑﻨﻮاﺧﺖ ﭘﺮاﮐﻨﺪه ﻧﺸﺪه اﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺤﻮي ﮐﻪ ﻃﯽ ﻓﺼﻮل زﻣﺴﺘﺎن و ﺑﻬﺎر و ﺗﺎﺑﺴﺘﺎن اﻓﺖ ﻓﺸﺎر روﻧﺪ ﻣﻨﻈﻢﺗﺮي ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺼﻞ ﭘﺎﯾﯿﺰ دارد.

Background and Objective: The temporal variability of local winds of Sistan during the period of global warming is the subject of this research. In recent decades, global warming has brought about tangible changes in the temperature of the planet and has influenced other atmospheric parameters such as wind speed. Method: In the study of atmospheric parameters, estimating the effect of global warming on these parameters is important. For this purpose, variations in the Sistan wind speeds and sea level pressure in the study area under the conditions of the two scenarios A2 and B2 from the output of the global Hadcm3 model were downscaled and for three periods of 30 years up to 2099, the changes in these two parameters were generated and examined. Findings: The results showed that the average wind speed calculated by scenario B2 for the period 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2070 respectively 0.67, 0.88 and 1.15 m / s Relative to the Basic course will increase. Also, the average wind speed variation under A2 scenario Conditions, which is a pessimistic scenario, is 1.36 and 1. 57 and 1.79 m / s for the periods 2039-2039 and 2069-2070 and 2070-2070 Also, the pressure calculated by scenario B2 for the period 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2070 will be reduced to 0.04, 0.10, and 0.16, respectively, compared to the base period. Discussion and Conclusions : The results showed that the decline in pressure and increase in wind speed has not been uniformly distributed throughout the year. However, during the winter and spring and summer, pressure drop is more regular than the autumn season.