رفتار جريان ورودي به سد سيمره در مواجهه با اثرات تغيير اقليم

The Behavior of Inflow to the Seimareh Dam in the Face of Climate Change Impacts

زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف: اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﺣﻔﻆ ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ ﺳﺒﺐ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ و ﭘﺎك در ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﺮق ﺑﻬﺮه ﺑﺒﺮﻧﺪ. اﯾﻦ اﻣﺮ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ي ﻧﯿﺮوﮔﺎه ﻫﺎي ﺑﺮق آﺑﯽ در ﻧﻘﺎط ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ دﻧﯿﺎ را ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﺮان ﻫﻢ ﻃﺮح ﻫﺎي ﺑﺮق آﺑﯽ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﯽ وﺟﻮد دارد ﮐﻪ ﻃﺮح ﺳﺪ و ﻧﯿﺮوﮔﺎه ﺳﯿﻤﺮه ﯾﮑﯽ از آن ﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻤﺎر ﻣﯽ آﯾﺪ. از آﻧﺠﺎ ﮐﻪ ﭘﺪﯾﺪه ي ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺳﺒﺐ ﺑﺮوز ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻫﯿﺪروﻟﻮژﯾﮑﯽ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ و ﺑﻪ ﺗﺒﻊ آن ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻃﺮح ﻫﺎي آﺑﯽ ﺷﻮد، اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺗﻼش ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺛﺮات اﯾﻦ ﭘﺪﯾﺪه ﺑﺮ رﻓﺘﺎر ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ورودي ﺑﻪ ﺳﺪ ﺳﯿﻤﺮه ﺑﭙﺮدازد. روش ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ: ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ در دوره ي آﺗﯽ )2040 ﺗﺎ 2069( ﺑﺮاي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ي ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل HadCM3 ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي A2 و B2 و ﻧﯿﺰ ﻣﺪل CanESM2 ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي RCP4.5 ،RCP2.6 و RCP8.5 ﺑﻪ روش رﯾﺰﻣﻘﯿﺎس ﻧﻤﺎﯾﯽ آﻣﺎري ﻣﺪل SDSM( ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ از ﻣﺪل ﻫﯿﺪروﻟﻮژﯾﮑﯽ HEC-HMS ﺟﻬﺖ ﺷﺒﯿﻪ ﺳﺎزي ﺟﺮﯾﺎن رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎ: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻧﺸﺎن دﻫﻨﺪه ي اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ دﻣﺎي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ در دوره ي آﺗﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﺳﺖ، ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮري ﮐﻪ ﺑﯿﺶ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ دﻣﺎﻫﺎي ﺑﯿﺸﯿﻨﻪ و ﮐﻤﯿﻨﻪ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي RCP8.5 و ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ در ﺣﺪود 1/2 و 1/3 درﺟﻪ ي ﺳﺎﻧﺘﯽ ﮔﺮاد ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد ﻣﯿﺰان ﺑﺎرش ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﺑﺪ. ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﺷﺒﯿﻪ ﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪه ي رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻧﯿﺰ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ورودي ﺑﻪ ﺳﺪ ﺳﯿﻤﺮه در دوره ي آﺗﯽ ﺣﺪود 5/2 ﺗﺎ 13/4 درﺻﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ داﺷﺖ. ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮔﯿﺮي: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻧﺸﺎن دﻫﻨﺪه ي اﻫﻤﯿﺖ و ﺿﺮورت در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ اﺛﺮات ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ در ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ ﺳﺎزه ﻫﺎي آﺑﯽ ﻣﻬﻢ ﻧﻈﯿﺮ ﺳﺪ و ﻧﯿﺮوﮔﺎه ﻫﺎي ﺑﺮق آﺑﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.

Background and Objective: The importance of environment protection has caused different countries benefit from renewable and clean sources to generate electricity. This has led to the development of hydropower plants around the world. Also, there are different hydroelectric projects in Iran that the Seimareh Dam & Hydropower Plant is amongst them. Since climate change can alter the hydrologic conditions of different areas and the performance of hydraulic structures, this study aims to examine the impacts of this phenomenon on the inflow to the Seimareh Dam. Method: Climate conditions in the future period (2040 to 2069) are predicted for the study area using HadCM3 model under A2 and B2 scenarios as well as CanESM2 model under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the Statistical DownScaling Method (SDSM model). Also, this study uses HEC-HMS hydrologic model to simulate river flow. Findings: The results of the present study show that temperature of the area increases in the future period to different scenarios, in such a way that the highest amount of increase for maximum and minimum temperature in the future period has been predicted for RCP8.5 respectively about 1.2 and 1.3 Centigrade. It is predicted that the mean annual amount of rainfall will reduce as well. Also, the assessment of simulated river flow shows that inflow to the Seimareh Dam will decrease about 5.2 to 13.4 percent in the future period. Discussion and Conclusion: The results of the present study show the importance and necessity of considering the climate change impacts in designing important hydraulic structures such as dams and hydropower plants.