تحليل راهبردهاي بيابان‌زدايي منتج از مدل‌هاي تصميم‌گيري با استفاده از توابع انتخاب اجتماعي، (مطالعه موردي: منطقه خضر آباد يزد)

Analysis of the Alternatives to Combat Desertification Derived from the Decision-Making Models Using the Social Choice Functions (Case Study of Khezerabad Region in Yazd Province)

زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف: ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ و اراﯾﻪ راﻫﺒﺮدﻫﺎي ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ ﺑﯿﺎﺑﺎنزداﯾﯽ ﺑﺎ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮع ﻣﻌﯿﺎرﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﺛﺮ از ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮي اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻣﯽﺷﻮد ﮐﻪ ﮔﺎﻫﺎً ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اوﻟﻮﯾﺖﺑﻨﺪي اﯾﻦ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻫﻢ ﻫﻢﺧﻮاﻧﯽ ﻧﺪارد. اﯾﻦ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ ﺑﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺎﻫﯿﺖ ﻣﺪل، ﻣﻌﯿﺎرﻫﺎي در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه و ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﯽ وزندﻫﯽ ﻣﻌﯿﺎرﻫﺎ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﺎن ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮوﻫﯽ دارد. ﻟﺬا ﻻزم اﺳﺖ ﺗﻮاﺑﻌﯽ اراﯾﻪ ﺷﻮد ﮐﻪ از ﻣﯿﺎن راﻫﺒﺮدﻫﺎي اراﯾﻪ ﺷﺪه در ﻫﺮ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ، ارﺟﺤﯿﺖ راﻫﺒﺮدﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮوﻫﯽ و ﻧﻬﺎﯾﯽ اراﯾﻪ ﺷﻮد. روش ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ: در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺳﻌﯽ ﺷﺪ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺗﻮاﺑﻊ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﺑﻪ اﻧﺠﺎم رﺳﺪ. ﺗﻮاﺑﻊ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﯾﮏ روش دﺳﺘﺮﺳﯽ ﺑﻪ ﯾﮏ ﺗﻮاﻓﻖ ﺟﻤﻌﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺑﺮﻃﺮف ﮐﺮدن ﭘﺎرادوﮐﺲ رايﮔﯿﺮي و ﻧﺎﺳﺎزﮔﺎري اوﻟﻮﯾﺖﺑﻨﺪي از ﯾﮏ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﮔﺰﯾﻨﻪﻫﺎي ﻣﻔﺮوض ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ، ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﻧﻬﺎﯾﯽ در ﭼﺎرﭼﻮب ﺗﻮاﺑﻊ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ از ﺳﻪ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻧﺎﻧﺴﻮن، ﮐﯿﻢﻧﯽ و ﮐﻮﭘﻠﻨﺪ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. و راﻫﺒﺮدﻫﺎي ﺑﯿﺎﺑﺎن-زداﯾﯽ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺧﻀﺮآﺑﺎد ﯾﺰد ﻣﻮرد ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎي ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺷﺪه، از دﯾﺪﮔﺎه ﻫﺮ ﺳﻪ روش ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﯾﺖ ﻧﻬﺎﯾﯽ، راﻫﺒﺮدﻫﺎي ﺟﻠﻮﮔﯿﺮي از ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻞ و ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻧﺎﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي اراﺿﯽ )A18(، ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ و اﺣﯿﺎء ﭘﻮﺷﺶ ﮔﯿﺎﻫﯽ )A23( و ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ در ﺑﺮداﺷﺖ از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ )A31( ، ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ راﻫﺒﺮدﻫﺎي ﺑﯿﺎﺑﺎنزداﯾﯽ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺗﺸﺨﯿﺺ داده ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮي: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻠﻪ از ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ راﻫﺒﺮدﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن داد رﺗﺒﻪﺑﻨﺪيﻫﺎي ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه ﺗﺎ ﺣﺪودي ﺑﺎ ﻫﻢ اﺧﺘﻼف دارﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ اﻣﺮ ﻋﻤﺪﺗﺎً ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر روشﻫﺎ ﺑﺮﻣﯽﮔﺮدد. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪﯾﺮان ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺑﯿﺎﺑﺎﻧﯽ اﯾﻦ اﻣﮑﺎن را ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ اﻣﮑﺎﻧﺎت و ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﻫﺎي ﻣﺤﺪود اﺧﺘﺼﺎص ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﮐﻨﺘﺮل روﻧﺪ ﺑﯿﺎﺑﺎنزاﯾﯽ را ﺑﻪ ﺷﯿﻮهﻫﺎي ﺻﺤﯿﺢ و ﮐﺎرآﻣﺪ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎرﺑﻨﺪﻧﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺿﻤﻦ دﺳﺖﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ، از ﻫﺪر رﻓﺘﻦ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﻫﺎي ﻣﻠﯽ ﺟﻠﻮﮔﯿﺮي ﮐﻨﻨﺪ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ در ﻃﺮحﻫﺎي ﮐﻨﺘﺮل و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ اﺛﺮات ﺑﯿﺎﺑﺎنزاﯾﯽ و اﺣﯿﺎء اراﺿﯽ ﺗﺨﺮﯾﺐ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ، ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ و رﺗﺒﻪﺑﻨﺪي ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه ﻣﻮرد ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻗﺮار ﮔﯿﺮد.

Background and Purpose: Different decision-making models are applied for assessing and providing the desertification optimal strategies through taking into account the total effective measures that sometimes the results of the prioritization of these models are not consistent. This issue depends on the nature of the model, the considered criteria, and the way of weighing the criteria as a group by the experts. So, there is need for presenting some functions in some groups to prioritize the strategies offered in each region by the different models on the basis of logic and strong principles and theoretical foundations. Methods: In this paper, it has been tried to do so by using the Social Choice functions. The Social Choice functions are a counting method from a set of given alternatives to resolve the voting paradox and the inconsistency of prioritizing. Therefore, for the final selection from the Nanson, Kemeny and Gopeland functions are used and the desertification strategies were analyzed. Findings: The obtained results from functions indicated that, the alternatives of prevention of unsuitable land use changes (A18), vegetation cover development and reclamation (A23) and modification of ground water harvesting (A31) respectively were identified as the most important alternatives for combating desertification in the region. Discussion and Conclusion: The results of the evaluation of the strategies showed that the obtained rankings are somewhat different from each other, which is mainly due to the structure of the methods. The results of this study enable the managers of desert areas to use the limited facilities and funds allocated to control the desertification process in correct and efficient ways in order to achieve better results, to avoid wastage. Prevent the outflow of national funds. Therefore, it was suggested that in the plans to control and reduce the effects of desertification and rehabilitation of degraded lands, the results and rankings obtained should be considered.