رابطه بين مصرف انرژي تجديد پذير و رشد اقتصادي در ايران

The Relationship between Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Iran

زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف: ﮐﺸﻮر اﯾﺮان ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﺼﺎدﯾﻖ اﻟﮕﻮي رﺷﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﮑﯿﻪ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ و ﺑﻪ ﺧﺼﻮص ﺳﻮﺧﺖﻫﺎي ﻓﺴﯿﻠﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺎنﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺑﻮدن ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻧﻔﺘﯽ و ﮔﺎزي ﮐﺸﻮر از ﻫﻢ اﮐﻨﻮن ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻓﮑﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺰﯾﻦ ﺑﻮد. ﯾﮑﯽ از اﯾﻦ راهﻫﺎ، اﯾﺠﺎد زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﺑﺮاي اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از اﻧﺮژيﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪ ﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎي ﺳﻮﺧﺖﻫﺎي ﻓﺴﯿﻠﯽ اﺳﺖ. از دﯾﺪﮔﺎه اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻧﺮژي، اﯾﺠﺎد ﺗﻨﻮع در ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ اﻧﺮژي و ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮي از ﺳﺒﺪي ﻣﺘﺸﮑﻞ از ﺳﻮﺧﺖﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻣﺮي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ، اﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻣﯽرود آﻟﻮدﮔﯽ ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از اﻧﺮژيﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪ ﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﺑﺪ. ﻫﺪف ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ راﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪ ﭘﺬﯾﺮ و رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي در ﮐﺸﻮر اﯾﺮان ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روﯾﮑﺮد ﮐﺮاﻧﻪ ﻫﺎي ARDL و ﻣﺪل VECMﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. روش ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ: در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار Eviews 9 و روش اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﮐﺮاﻧﻪ ﻫﺎي ARDL و ﻣﺪل VECM ﺑﻪ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻣﻮردي ﮐﺸﻮر اﯾﺮان ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 1360 ﺗﺎ 1393 ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎ: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ در ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت راﺑﻄﻪ ﻋﻠﯿﺖ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪ ﭘﺬﯾﺮ و رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي وﺟﻮد ﻧﺪارد و ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻧﯿﺮوي ﮐﺎر و رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي راﺑﻄﻪ ﯾﮏﻃﺮﻓﻪ ﺑﺮﻗﺮار اﺳﺖ. وﻟﯽ در ﮐﻮﺗﺎه ﻣﺪت راﺑﻄﻪ ﯾﮏﻃﺮﻓﻪاي از رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﻪ ﺳﻮي ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژيﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪ ﭘﺬﯾﺮ، ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ راﺑﻄﻪ ﯾﮏﻃﺮﻓﻪ اي از ﻧﯿﺮوي ﮐﺎر ﺑﻪ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي، ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪ ﭘﺬﯾﺮ و ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ در ﺣﺎل اﺟﺮا اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽﻫﺎي ﮐﻮﺗﺎه ﻣﺪت اﻟﮕﻮ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺗﻮاﺑﻊ ﻋﮑﺲاﻟﻌﻤﻞ آﻧﯽ، ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﺷﻮكﻫﺎ درﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ اﺛﺮﺷﺎن از ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﯽ رود و ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎً روي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﭘﺎﺳﺦ اﺛﺮ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ دارﻧﺪ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ در ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت، ﺷﻮكﻫﺎي وارده از ﻃﺮف ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﻣﺼﺮف ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ اﻧﺮژيﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪ ﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺑﺮ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻣﯽرﺳﺪ. ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮔﯿﺮي: ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ و از ﻟﺤﺎظ آﻣﺎري، در اﻏﻠﺐ ﻣﻮارد ﻣﻌﻨﯽ دار ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪ ﭘﺬﯾﺮ، ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ و ﻧﯿﺮوي ﮐﺎر ﺑﺮ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي در ﮐﺸﻮر اﯾﺮان، ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺻﺮﻓﻪ ﺟﻮﯾﯽ در ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي، ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﺗﮑﻨﻮﻟﻮژي ﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ، ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ در اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از اﻧﺮژي ﻫﺎي ﻧﻮ، ﺗﻘﻮﯾﺖ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﮔﺬاري ﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ و ﮐﺎرآﻣﺪ و اﯾﺠﺎد ﻗﻮاﻧﯿﻦ ﺣﻤﺎﯾﺘﯽ، ﺑﺎﻋﺚ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از اﻧﺮژي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪ ﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﮐﻪ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺑﺴﺰاﯾﯽ در اﻗﺘﺼﺎد و ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ دارﻧﺪ، ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. واژهﻫﺎي ﮐﻠﯿﺪي: ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪ ﭘﺬﯾﺮ، رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي، ﮐﺮاﻧﻪﻫﺎي VECM ،ARDL، ﮐﺸﻮر اﯾﺮان.

Background and Objective: Iran is one of the examples of growth patterns relying on natural resources, especially fossil fuels. Considering the end of the oil and gas resources of the country, from now on, there should be alternative sources of thought. One way of doing this is to using renewable energies instead of fossil fuels. From the point of view of energy economy, it is logical to create diversification in energy sources and utilize a basket of different fuels. Also, production-related pollution is expected to decrease as well by increasing the use of renewable energy. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Iran using ARDL bounds and VECM. Method: In this study, using the Eviews 9 software and the ARDL Bounds econometric method and the VECM model, a case study of Iran in the years 1981 to 2014 has been conducted. Findings: The results show that there is no causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in the long run, and there is only one-way relationship between labor force and economic growth. But in the short run, there is a one-way relationship between economic growth and renewable energy use, as well as a one-way relationship between labor force and economic growth, renewable energy consumption and capital. Investigating the short-run dynamics of the pattern using instantaneous response functions showed that the shock eventually vanishes and often affects the response variable positively. Therefore, in the long run, shocks from independent variables, such as renewable energy consumption per capita, will be balanced against economic growth. Discussion and Conclusion: Considering the positive and statistically significant effects of renewable energy, capital and labor force variables on economic growth in Iran, it is suggested that by saving energy consumption, improving production technologies, reducing costs, the use of new energies, the promotion of appropriate and efficient policies and the creation of supportive laws will increase the use of renewable energy, which has a major role in the economy and the environment.