تحليل مناقشه تأمين حقابه محيط زيستي در سطح سازمان هاي تصميم گيرنده

Analyzing the Conflict of Allocating Environmental Water Share Among Rival Governmental Organizations

زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف: از آنﺟﺎ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺮآورد ﻧﯿﺎز ﻣﺤﯿﻂزﯾﺴﺘﯽ ﻫﻤﻮاره ﺑﺎ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺎﺗﯽ ﻣﯿﺎن ﺳﺎزﻣﺎنﻫﺎي ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮﻧﺪه ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﻫﻤﺮاه اﺳﺖ، ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺎت ﺑﺎ در ﻧﻈﺮﮔﯿﺮي ﺟﻮاﻧﺐ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ از ﻣﻠﺰوﻣﺎت ﻣﻬﻢ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻤﺎر ﻣﯽآﯾﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﻪ ﺗﺎﻣﯿﻦ ﺣﻘﺎﺑﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦدﺳﺖ ﺳﺪ اﯾﻼم، ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻤﺎت و اﻗﺪاﻣﺎت ﺳﺎزﻣﺎنﻫﺎي ﻣﺴﺌﻮول ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ و ﺑﺎ ﻟﺤﺎظ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﻧﻘﺎط ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﻧﻈﺮ را ﺗﺸﺮﯾﺢ ﻣﯽﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ. روش ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ: در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ، اﻗﺪاﻣﺎت و رﻓﺘﺎر ﺳﺎزﻣﺎنﻫﺎي ذيرﺑﻂ در ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ و ﺗﺎﻣﯿﻦ آب ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز ﻫﺮ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺑﺎ ﮐﻤﮏ ﻣﺪل ﮔﺮاف ﺟﻬﺖ ﺣﻞ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﻪ )+GMCR( ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺳﺎزﻣﺎنﻫﺎي ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮﻧﺪه در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﻫﺪاف ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﺳﺪ اﯾﻼم ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ اﻗﺪاﻣﺎت ﺳﺎزﻣﺎنﻫﺎي ﻣﺬﮐﻮر، ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت اﻫﺪاف و اﻗﺪاﻣﺎت ﺻﻮرتﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﭘﺲ از ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري از ﺳﺪ، از ﺳﺎل آﺑﯽ 85-84 ﺗﺎ ﺳﺎل 95-94 اﻧﺠﺎم ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺖ و ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ واﻗﻌﯽ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﺷﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ در ﻧﻘﺎط ﺗﻌﺎدل 27 و 32 ﺳﺎزﻣﺎنﻫﺎي ﺟﻬﺎدﮐﺸﺎورزي و آب و ﻓﺎﺿﻼب ﺗﻤﺎﯾﻞ دارﻧﺪ در راﺳﺘﺎي رﺳﯿﺪن ﺑﻪ اﻫﺪاف ﺧﻮد ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ درﯾﺎﻓﺖ ﺣﻘﺎﺑﻪ ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮ ﺣﺮﮐﺖ ﮐﻨﻨﺪ و ﻫﻤﯿﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع ﺳﺒﺐ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد ﮐﻪ ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن ﻣﺤﯿﻂزﯾﺴﺖ ﺑﺮاي درﯾﺎﻓﺖ ﺣﻘﺎﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﯿﻂزﯾﺴﺘﯽ اﻗﺪام ﺑﻪ ﺷﮑﺎﯾﺖ ﮐﻨﺪ و در اﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺎن ﺷﺮﮐﺖ آب ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪاي و اﺳﺘﺎﻧﺪاري ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﺑﺎزﯾﮕﺮان ﮐﻠﯿﺪي در ﺟﻬﺖ ﺑﺨﺸﯿﺪن ﺑﻪ آﯾﻨﺪه اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﻪ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬاري اﯾﻔﺎ ﻣﯽﻧﻤﺎﯾﻨﺪ. ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮي: در ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﻪ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬاري و اﻗﺪاﻣﺎت ﻫﺮ ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن ﻧﻘﺶ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺰاﯾﯽ در ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ دﯾﮕﺮ ﺳﺎزﻣﺎنﻫﺎي دﺧﯿﻞ در ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﻪ دارد.

Background and Objective: Since allocating water to satisfy environmental water share can cause a conflict among governmental organizations supplying water, withdrawing water, and protecting the ecosystem, recognizing and analyzing such situations is paramount significance and can avoid encountering serious conflicts. In this research, we analyzed the actions of involved organizations which are either using or supplying water from Ilam’s dam to find the equilibria and the possible outcomes of the conflict. Method: We used Graph Model for Conflict Resolution to study the actions and strategies of rival organizations managing water allocation and involving in water conflict. The involved organizations are determined based on uses of Ilam’s dam. To define the strategies, all the measures and decisions of these organizations have been studied since 2005. In addition, the effect of drought years on the players’ actions is taken into account. Finally, we compared the status-quo with the results of the base line strategy of the model. Findings: Equilibria results suggest that in states 27 and 32 the Jihad Agriculture Organization and the Water and Wastewater Company are interested in withdrawing more water to achieve their goals. As a result, the Department of Environment will complain against them to protect ecosystem and provide the required environmental water share. In this case, the Regional Water Authority and the Governorship can play a dominant role in accomplishing to the stable outcomes. Furthermore, it is shown that the status-quo is not stable. Discussion and Conclusion: Analyzing this conflict indicates that all players have enough power to change the game's output. Therefore, their goals and measures can effectively change the equilibria and the future of the conflict