كليدواژه :
تاب‌آوري شهري , آمادگي در برابر زلزله , مديريت بحران , كلان‌شهر تهران
چكيده فارسي :
آسيب‌پذيري ناشي از زلزله يكي از مهم‌ترين چالش‌هاي پيش روي شهرهاي بزرگ خصوصاً در ايران است. لذا با توجه به اينكه در ميان مخاطرات و حوادث مختلف طبيعي و غيرطبيعي زلزله به‌عنوان غافلگيركننده‌ترين سانحه شناخته مي‌شود و قاعدتاً تدابير خاصي در جهت پيشگيري خاصي در زمينه جلوگيري از وقوع آن نمي‌توان انديشيد و تاكنون هيچ ابزار و فنّاوري توانايي پيش‌بيني وقوع زلزله نداشته‌است، ازاين‌رو آنچه ذكر شد بيشترين آسيب‌پذيري‌ها در زمان وقوع بحران خصوصاً زلزله ناشي از عدم آمادگي لازم در سطوح مختلف جامعه است و افزايش خسارات جاني و مالي در زمان وقوع بحران ناشي از همين عدم آمادگي است، حفظ اين آمادگي‌ها در شهر زلزله‌خيز تهران بسيار حائز اهميت است. تهران به‌عنوان بزرگ‌ترين كلان‌شهر و پايتخت كشور، در معرض خطر شديد زلزله قرار دارد. بنابراين هدف از انجام اين پژوهش سنجش و ارزيابي شاخص‌هاي ميزان آمادگي شهر تهران در مقابله با زلزله است. ابعاد موردبررسي در اين تحقيق با رويكرد تئوري تاب‌آوري در برابر حوادث طبيعي، شامل ابعاد كالبدي - محيطي، اجتماعي - فرهنگي، نهادي - مديريتي و اقتصادي موردبررسي قرار گرفته‌است. در اين تحقيق از روش توصيفي - تحليلي با رويكرد پيمايشي و براي بررسي و پاسخگويي به سؤالات تحقيق تأكيد شده‌است. جامعه آماري موردبررسي در اين تحقيق شامل: مديران، خبرگان و كارشناسان مديريت بحران شاغل در منطقه 4 شهرداري تهران است. پس از بررسي و تجربه و تحليل استنباطي اسناد و با استفاده از آزمون كلموگروف اسميرنوف و نظرات مديران و خبرگان حاصل از جمع‌آوري اطلاعات پرسشنامه‌اي يافته‌هاي اين تحقيق نشان داد كه شاخص‌هاي آمادگي اجتماعي و شاخص‌هاي آمادگي نهادي - مديريتي منطقه 4 شهر تهران در مقابله با زلزله در وضعيت متوسطي از آمادگي در برابر وقوع زلزله قرار دارند؛ اما آمادگي كالبدي - محيطي و آمادگي اقتصادي منطقه 4 شهر تهران در برابر حادثه زلزله در وضعيت مناسبي قرار ندارد.
چكيده لاتين :
Earthquake vulnerability is one of the most important challenges faced by metropolises in Iran. Earthquakes are the most unexpected disasters among various natural and unnatural hazards. They cannot be prevented in any special way, and so far no tools and technology have been able to predict their occurrence. In fact, unpreparedness in times of crisis, especially in earthquakes, causes vulnerability in different levels of a society and increases human and financial losses.
Therefore, it can be acknowledged that “assessing and measuring the level of preparedness” in order to improve the processes of crisis management cycle is a primary action that effectively reduces the effects and complications of manmade and natural crisis. In Tehran, however, this issue is still in a state of ambiguity
The existence of numerous faults and the geographical distribution of earthquakes in Iran indicate that almost a vast area of this country, full of inhabitants, is at risk of earthquakes.
Carpenter's definition of resilience, which has been accepted as a comprehensive definition in many studies, is: (1) the amount of damage that a system is able to absorb, without going out of balance; (2) the amount of ability of a system to organize and reorganize themselves in different conditions; and (3) the ability of the system to create and increase the learning capacity and strengthen adaptation to critical conditions. A resilient city is a city that has the components of readiness, strength, adaptability, stability and durability. In fact, the resilient city is a stable network of physical systems and human societies.
Tehran, as the largest metropolis and the capital city of Iran, is at high risk of earthquakes. Therefore, the study aims to measure and analyze the level of earthquake preparedness in Tehran. The different dimensions of this research, including physical, environmental, social, cultural, institutional, managerial and economic dimensions, were studied with the Resilience Theory. In this research, the descriptive-analytical method with a survey approach has been emphasized to review and answer the research questions. Among the risk reduction programs, resilience can be considered as a more accurate and successful program due to its attention to social and economic dimensions.
Due to the importance of the above principle and the vulnerability of Tehran, especially in areas with dilapidated structures such as parts of District 4, and due to the imminence of earthquake, there are two questions. Whether the city of Tehran is sufficiently prepared for earthquake? Considering the theory of resilience, how effective this preparedness is in different physical, social, economic and institutional and managerial dimensions?
The statistical population studied in this study includes: managers, experts and crisis management experts working in District 4 of Tehran Municipality. After reviewing and analyzing the documents and opinions of managers and experts, which were obtained through questionnaire, the findings of this study showed that the level of social, institutional and managerial preparedness for earthquake in District 4 of Tehran is moderate, and the level of physical, environmental and economic preparedness is not good.
