كليدواژه :
تغيير اقليم , تحليل روند , آزمون زمين آمار , محدوده ساري
چكيده فارسي :
ﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف: ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮي ﮐﻪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺑﺮ ﮐﺮه زﻣﯿﻦ دارد ودر ﺣﺎل ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﻬﻢ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﻫﺎي ﻓﺮاروي ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ ﻣﻄﺮح ﺑﻮده، ﺗﻼش در ﺟﻬﺖ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ ﻫﺮ ﭼﻪ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ رﺧﺪادﻫﺎي ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ، اﻣﺮي ﻣﺴﻠﻢ اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ آﺷﮑﺎرﺳﺎزي و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ روﻧﺪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺑﻮﯾﮋه ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺑﺎرش و دﻣﺎ در ﻣﺤﺪوده ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﺳﺎري در اﺳﺘﺎن ﻣﺎزﻧﺪران ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
روش ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ: روش ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ روﻧﺪ آﻣﺎري ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺑﺎرش و دﻣﺎ در 4 اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه )ﺳﺎري، آﻣﻞ، ﻗﺮاﺧﯿﻞ و ﺑﺎﺑﻠﺴﺮ( در ﺑﺎزه زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 20 و30 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ )1987- 2017( ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از آزﻣﻮن ﻧﺎ ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﯾﮏ ﻣﻦ - ﮐﻨﺪال و ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار آﺷﮑﺎرﺳﺎز ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن ﻫﻮاﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ ﮐﺸﻮر ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻧﻤﻮدن دﻗﯿﻖ ﺗﺮ ﻣﮑﺎن ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ، از روش زﻣﯿﻦ آﻣﺎر در ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار Arc GIS
اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ.
ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻫﺎي آزﻣﻮن ﻣﻦ - ﮐﻨﺪال ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻧﻤﻮد ﮐﻪ 3 اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه )ﻗﺮاﺧﯿﻞ، ﺑﺎﺑﻠﺴﺮ و ﺳﺎري( از ﮐﻞ اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎي ﻣﻮردﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ در ﺑﺎزه زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 30 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﺎ U+ )1/75 ،3/80 ،3/87( داراي روﻧﺪ ﺟﻬﺸﯽ ﻣﻌﻨﺎدار ازﻧﻈﺮ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ دﻣﺎ ﺑﻮده وﻟﯽ ازﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﺎرش، روﻧﺪ ﻣﻌﻨﺎداري را ﻧﺸﺎن ﻧﻤﯽ دﻫﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار آﺷﮑﺎرﺳﺎز ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ ﻧﮑﺘﻪ ﺗﺄﮐﯿﺪ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ ﮐﻪ روﻧﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ دﻣﺎ در اﯾﻦ اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎ ﻣﺤﺴﻮس ﺑﻮده و ﻫﻤﯿﻦ اﻣﺮ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ در اﯾﻦ ﻣﺤﺪوده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. آزﻣﻮن زﻣﯿﻦ آﻣﺎر ﻧﯿﺰ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻧﻤﻮد ﮐﻪ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ در ﺣﻮزه ﺷﻬﺮ ﺳﺎري رخ داده و از ﺣﺎﻟﺖ دﻣﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﻼﯾﻢ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺧﺸﮏ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ داده اﺳﺖ.
ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮي: ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮردﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ دﭼﺎر ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺷﺪﯾﺪي ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ و اﯾﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻢ ﺑﺮ ﺑﯿﻼن آﺑﯽ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ، اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻧﯿﺎز آﺑﯽ، ﮐﺎﻫﺶ رﻃﻮﺑﺖ ﺧﺎك، ﺗﺮاﮐﻢ ﭘﻮﺷﺶ ﮔﯿﺎﻫﯽ، ﻇﺮﻓﯿﺖ ﻣﺮاﺗﻊ و ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﮐﺸﺎورزي اﺛﺮ ﻣﯽ ﮔﺬارد و ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺒﻊ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﮐﻨﻨﺪه ي آب ﻣﻮردﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ، اﻓﺖ ﺳﻄﺢ اﯾﺴﺘﺎﺑﯽ و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ را ﻧﯿﺰ در ﭘﯽ دارد. ﺿﻤﻦ اﯾﻦ ﮐﻪ ﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﺷﺮاﯾﻄﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﺎي ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻓﺮاواﻧﯽ ﺑﺎرش، اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺑﺎرش ﻫﺎي ﺳﯿﻼﺑﯽ، ﻓﺮﺳﺎﯾﺶ ﺧﺎك و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
چكيده لاتين :
Background and Objective: Given the impact that climate change has on the planet, which is currently one of the most important challenges facing the international community, efforts to understand climate change events as much as possible are certain. The purpose of this study is to detect and analyze the trend of climate change, especially climatic elements of precipitation and temperature in the city of Sari in Mazandaran province.
Method: The method of this study was to analyze the statistical process of climatic factors of precipitation and temperature at 4 stations (Sari, Amol, Gharakhil and Babolsar) in the period of 20 and 30 years (1987-2017) using non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and climate sensing software of the Meteorological Organization of Iran. Also, to determine the location of climate change more precisely, Arc statistics was used in Arc GIS software.
Findings: The Kendall test showed that 3 stations (Gharakhil, Babolsar and Sari) had a significant leakage trend in terms of temperature rise over the 30-year period with U + (3.87, 3.80, 1.75). But it does not show significant trends in precipitation. The Climate Change Detector also emphasizes that the temperature rise at these stations is tangible and this has led to climate change in this area. Earth statistic test also revealed that most climate change occurred in the area of Sari and changed from a mild to moderate state.
Dissection and Conclusion: The area under study has undergone severe climate change, and this climate change directly affects the water balance of the region, increasing water requirements, decreasing soil moisture, vegetation density, rangeland capacity and agricultural products, and considering that groundwater resources are the most important source of supply Water is needed in different parts of the region, it also reduces the level of water table and reduces the quality of groundwater resources. In addition, this means reducing the frequency of precipitation, increasing rainfall, soil erosion and natural resources.
