پديد آورندگان :
صادقي، زين العابدين دانشگاه شهيد باهنر كرمان - دانشكده مديريت و اقتصاد , رضايي جعفري، مريم دانشگاه شهيد باهنر كرمان , قاسمي نژاد، امين دانشگاه شهيد باهنر كرمان
چكيده فارسي :
زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف: ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ و ﻣﺼﺮف ﺑﺮق را ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ و ﺿﺮورتﻫﺎ در رﺷﺪ و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻫﺮ ﮐﺸﻮر ﻗﻠﻤﺪاد ﮐﺮد. ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﺮق ﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﻪ اﺣﺪاث ﻧﯿﺮوﮔﺎه ﺳﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ارز ﺑﺮي ﺑﺎﻻ و ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﺑﺮ ﺑﻮدن اﺣﺪاث و راهاﻧﺪازي ﻫﺮ ﻧﯿﺮوﮔﺎه ﺟﺪﯾﺪ در ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺑﺮق، ﻻزم اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب اﯾﻦ ﻧﯿﺮوﮔﺎهﻫﺎ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻃﯿﻒ ﮔﺴﺘﺮدهاي از ﻣﻌﯿﺎرﻫﺎ ﺻﻮرت ﭘﺬﯾﺮد.
روش ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ: در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﻌﯿﺎرﻫﺎي اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي، ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺘﯽ و ﻓﻨﯽ ﺑﻪ اوﻟﻮﯾﺖﺑﻨﺪي ﻧﯿﺮوﮔﺎهﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ در ﮐﺸﻮر ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روشﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﻪ ﻣﺮاﺗﺒﯽ، ﺗﺎﭘﺴﯿﺲ و وﯾﮑﻮر ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ.
ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي ﻣﯿﺰان آﻟﻮدﮔﯽ ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ، ﻣﯿﺰان ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاري اوﻟﯿﻪ ﺑﻪ ازاي ﻫﺮ ﮐﯿﻠﻮوات ﺳﺎﻋﺖ ﺑﺮق ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪي، ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪﻫﺎي ﺗﻌﻤﯿﺮ و ﻧﮕﻬﺪاري، اﻣﮑﺎن دﺳﺘﺮﺳﯽ آﺳﺎن ﺑﻪ ﻟﻮازم ﯾﺪﮐﯽ و اﻣﮑﺎن ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻇﺮﻓﯿﺖ از ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎي اﺻﻠﯽ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار ﺑﺮ اوﻟﻮﯾﺖﺑﻨﺪي ﻧﯿﺮوﮔﺎهﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﺮق در اﯾﺮان ﻣﻄﺮح ﺷﺪ. ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮرﮐﻠﯽ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ، ﻣﯿﺰان آﻟﻮدﮔﯽ ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ را در اوﻟﻮﯾﺖﺑﻨﺪي ﻧﯿﺮوﮔﺎهﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﺮق دارد. ﻫﻢﭼﻨﯿﻦ، ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاري اوﻟﯿﻪ ﺑﻪ ازاي ﻫﺮﮐﯿﻠﻮ وات ﺳﺎﻋﺖ ﺑﺮق ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪي، ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪﻫﺎي ﺗﻌﻤﯿﺮ و ﻧﮕﻬﺪاري، اﻣﮑﺎن ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻇﺮﻓﯿﺖ و اﻣﮑﺎن دﺳﺘﺮﺳﯽ آﺳﺎن ﺑﻪ ﻟﻮازم ﯾﺪﮐﯽ از ﻣﻬﻢ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار ﺑﯿﺎن ﺷﺪ.
ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮي: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از اوﻟﻮﯾﺖﺑﻨﺪي در ﻫﺮ ﺳﻪ روش ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮي ﭼﻨﺪ ﻣﻌﯿﺎره، ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﻧﯿﺮوﮔﺎهﻫﺎي ﺑﺎدي ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان اوﻟﯿﻦ ﮔﺰﯾﻨﻪ ﺑﺮاي اﻧﺘﺨﺎب اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋﯾﮏ ﻧﯿﺮوﮔﺎه ﺑﺮق ﻣﻄﺮح اﺳﺖ و ﻧﯿﺮوﮔﺎهﻫﺎي ﺧﻮرﺷﯿﺪي، ﺑﺮﻗﺎﺑﯽ، ﻣﻘﯿﺎس ﮐﻮﭼﮏ )ﭘﺮاﮐﻨﺪه(، ﮔﺎزي، ﺑﺨﺎر، ﺳﯿﮑﻞ ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺒﯽ و دﯾﺰﻟﯽ ﺑﻪﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ در اوﻟﻮﯾﺖﻫﺎي ﺑﻌﺪي ﻗﺮار ﻣﯽﮔﯿﺮﻧﺪ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد ﮐﻪ دوﻟﺖ و ﻧﻬﺎدﻫﺎي ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺘﯽ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اوﻟﻮﯾﺖﺑﻨﺪي اﻧﺠﺎم ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ در ﻧﯿﺮوﮔﺎهﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﺮق ﺑﻪ اﯾﺠﺎد زﯾﺮﺳﺎﺧﺖ-ﻫﺎي ﻻزم ﺟﻬﺖ ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري از اﯾﻦ اﻧﺮژيﻫﺎ ﺑﭙﺮدازﻧﺪ.
چكيده لاتين :
Background and Objective: Electricity production and consumption are considered as two of the most important factors and premises in the growth and development of every country. We need to build power plants for electricity production given the high costs and investment needed for the construction of each power plant in electricity industry, it is necessary to select these power plants according to a wide range of criteria.
Method: Using economic, environmental and technical criteria, this study attempts to prioritize different power plants in Iran via AHP, TOPSIS and VIKOR method.
Findings: Environmental pollution indices, initial investment per kilowatt hour of electricity generation, maintenance costs, easy access to spare parts and the possibility of developing and increasing capacity were introduced the main indicators affecting prioritization of the power plants in Iran. In general, according to all indices studied in this study, environmental pollution has the most impact on the prioritization of power generation plants. Also, the indexes related to the amount of initial investment per kWh, maintenance costs, the possibility of developing and increasing capacity, and easy access to spare parts were considered as the most important factors.
Discussion and Conclusions: The findings from the prioritization by each methods of Multiple Attribute Decision Making show that wind plants have the top priority in the strategic selection of electricity plant, and solar energy. Hydropower, small-scale (scattered), gas, steam, combined cycle and diesel respectively are the next priorities .Therefore, it is suggested that government and political organizations start to make foundations and infrastructure required for utilization of such energies in power plants given the illustrated prioritization.
