تعيين و آشكارسازي كاربري‌هاي اكوسيستم و پيش‌بيني تغييرات آنها در جنگل‌هاي شمال ايران (مطالعه موردي: حوضه جنگلي دوهزار-سه هزار البرز مركزي)

Determining and identifying ecosystem uses and forecasting their changes in the forests of northern Iran (Case study: Dohezar and Sehezar Basin, Central Alborz Forest)

ﭼﮑﯿﺪه ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮيﻫﺎي اﮐﻮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ، ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻧﻬﺎدﻫﺎي داﻧﺸﮕﺎﻫﯽ، ﺣﺎﻓﻈﺎن ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ، ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﺳﺎزان و ﻣﺘﻮﻟﯿﺎن ﺑﻪ ﺧﺪﻣﺎت اﮐﻮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻤﯽ ﺑﺎ رﺷﺪ ﻓﺰاﯾﻨﺪهاي ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ و ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﮐﻤﯽ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪات و ﺧﺪﻣﺎت اﮐﻮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻤﯽ، ﺗﺮﺳﯿﻢ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﮐﻨﻮﻧﯽ و ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺧﺪﻣﺎت اﮐﻮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻤﯽ اﻫﺪاف اﺻﻠﯽ اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻪﻣﻨﻈﻮر اﻧﺠﺎم اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ، ﺑﺮاي ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺷﻤﺎري از ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ ﺑﺮاي ﺣﻮﺿﻪ ﺟﻨﮕﻠﯽ دو ﻫﺰار-ﺳﻪ ﻫﺰار از ﺗﻠﻔﯿﻘﯽ از روشﻫﺎي ﻣﺸﺎرﮐﺘﯽ و ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاي اﻧﺠﺎم ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺧﺪﻣﺎت اﮐﻮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻤﯽ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد در ﻣﺤﺪوده ﺣﻮﺿﻪ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺷﺪه، ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﻗﻠﻤﺮوي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ، ﺗﻌﻬﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮي در ﻗﺒﺎل ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬاري و ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﺳﺎزي، ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻗﻠﻤﺮوي اوﻟﯿﻪ، ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي ﺑﺮاي ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺧﺪﻣﺎت، اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﺷﯿﻮهﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮاي زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺪه در ﺳﺎﯾﺖ، ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﺑﺪﯾﻞ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﯾﺎ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي ﺷﺪه، اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﺷﯿﻮهﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮاي ﻫﺮ ﯾﮏ از ﺧﺪﻣﺎت اﮐﻮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻤﯽ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺪه و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ و اﻃﻼعرﺳﺎﻧﯽ در ﻣﻮرد آﻧﻬﺎ اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي اراﺿﯽ دو ﻫﺰار-ﺳﻪ ﻫﺰار ﺑﺮاي ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 1987 و 2014 ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي اراﺿﯽ در ﭼﻬﺎر ﮔﺮوه اﺻﻠﯽ ﺟﻨﮕﻞ، ﻣﺮﺗﻊ، زﻣﯿﻦﻫﺎي زراﻋﯽ و اراﺿﯽ ﻋﺎري از ﭘﻮﺷﺶ ﻃﯽ 27 ﺳﺎل دﭼﺎر ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮاﺗﯽ ﺷﺪهاﻧﺪ. ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮرﮐﻠﯽ، ﺑﻪ ازاي ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺳﻄﻮح ﺟﻨﮕﻠﯽ، در ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮيﻫﺎ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮاﺗﯽ اﯾﺠﺎد ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه از ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ ﺗﺼﺎوﯾﺮ ﻣﺎﻫﻮارهاي در ﺗﻠﻔﯿﻖ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺎزدﯾﺪﻫﺎي ﻣﯿﺪاﻧﯽ و ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻨﺪات ﻣﻮﺟﻮد، ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ وﺳﻌﺖ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي اراﺿﯽ ﺟﻨﮕﻞ از 33348 ﻫﮑﺘﺎر در ﺳﺎل 1987 ﺑﻪ 24248 ﻫﮑﺘﺎر در ﺳﺎل 2014 ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﮐﻤﯽ ﻧﯿﺰ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ در ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي آﯾﻨﺪه، ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺣﺪود 0/8درﺻﺪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺟﻨﮕﻞﻫﺎي ﻣﺘﺮاﮐﻢ و 0/58 درﺻﺪ ﺟﻨﮕﻞﻫﺎي ﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﻣﺘﺮاﮐﻢ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ اﺳﺖ.

The attention of academic institutions, environmentalists, decision-makers, and trustees to ecosystem services has grown exponentially by increasing attention to ecosystem uses. Quantitative identification and evaluation of the most important ecosystem products and services, mapping the current situation, and predicting changes related to the ecosystem services are the main objectives of this study. In order to conduct this study, a combination of participatory and modeling methods was used to evaluate several selected land-use changes for the Dohezar-Sehezar forest basin. To evaluate the most important ecosystem services in the designated basin area, determination of the study area, commitment to policy and decision making, initial area assessment, planning to evaluate services, selection appropriate methods for the field identified on the region, determination of the alternative status appropriate to the management change or planned policy, selecting of appropriate practices for each of the identified ecosystem services, and the results have been analyzed and informed. The land use map of Dohezar-Sehezar for 1987 and 2014 showed that the use of land has changed in the four main groups of forests, grassland, agricultural lands and lands without cover for 27 years. Generally, in exchange for the reduction of forest levels, changes have been made in other uses. The results obtained from the interpretation of satellite images in combination with field visits and other available documents showed that the extent of forest land use was decreased from 33,348 hectares in 1987 to 24,248 hectares in 2014. The results of the quantitative evaluation showed that in the future scenario, the decline of about 0.8% of the density of dense forests and 0.58% of the semi-dense forests is predictable.