برآورد تابع تقاضاي برق خانگي استان خوزستان

Residential Electricity Use Demand Estimation in Khuzestan Province

In contrast with other source of energy, electricity besides having great importance in production and consumption, plays an important role in economic & social decision – making process. During last years, the variations procedure of residential electricity use has an increasing scale. Through 1977 to 2001, total residential use of electricity in Khuzestan province had increased tenfold and annual use of every subscriber increases threefold. The article tends to estimate residential electricity use demand based on studies from 1951 to 2002 in iran and those in other countries through 1978 to 2000. Both long and short run equations are estimated by (OLS) (ordinary least squares) method and ECM (error correction model) method in turn. Time series, considered in this article, are between 1988 and 2001. In this study, Time series are stationary, moreover estimated models consist with classical hypothesis. Regression of the model shows that long-run price elasticity is - 0.97 and long-run income elasticity is 1.22, in short – run, they are - 0.22 and 0.54. Gas as a substitution for electricity has negative coefficient in the model, therefore, the less the price of gas, the more the electricity use and then, both gas & electricity will be used simultaneously. One of the reasons may be rising of temperature in buildings because of using gas for cooking, boiling water or using lamps (which produce heat), and thereafter, using air – conditioning and cooling appliances to lower the temperature in hot months of year (about 7 months). These are the most using electricity appliances. Comparing income and price elasticities of residential electricity demand in Khuzestan province, it can be concluded that electricity demand is affected by price and income policies Income policies have more influence than price policies.