تعامل بلندمدت سرمايه گذاري و صادرات غيرنفتي ايران

Long-run Interaction of Investment and Non- oil Exports in Iran

Although Iranian economy has been well-known as an oil-exporting one, recently the emphasis on promoting non-oil exports has become Iranʹs crucial strategy for its development goals. Undoubtedly, this new conducted strategy can reduce fluctuations in foreign exchange earnings, improve the balance of payments and positively affect employment. Meanwhile, there is a need to make investment in different era of economic sectors. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of the total investment on the supply of Iranʹs non-oil exports during 1961 - 2001. The paper tests the assumption that investment in long-run has a positive effect on non-oil exports, while in the short-run its effect is limited. Specifying a theoretical framework, we can estimate the long-run equation of the non-oil exports by applying the ARDL and estimate the short-run equation by applying ECM. Overall results reveal that all variables of investment, effective export exchange rate and the relative export price have significantly positive effects on exports in the long-run, while the effect which consumption has is negative. In addition, a research based upon the error correction method (ECM) shows that the aforementioned variables including aggregate investment can significantly affect non-oil exports in the short-run but in the long-rim their effects are much greater.