بررسي عوامل مؤثر بر نرخ ارز در ايران از ديدگاه پست كينزين ها

Investigating the Factors Affecting the Exchange Rate in Iran from the Perspective of Keynesians

نـرخ ارز در 40سال گذشته بـا سـه جهـش فزاينده و ناهمسان در اقتصاد ايران مواجـه بوده اسـت. از آنجا كه شرايط و ساختار اقتصادي بويژه تقاضاي موثر نقش تعيين‌كننده‌اي در نوسانات ،جهت دهي و افزايش نرخ ارز دارد، در اين مقاله، با تبيين نظري و طراحي الگويي مناسب، عوامل مؤثر بر نرخ ارز در ايران از ديدگاه پست كينزين هاارزيابي شده است.بر مبناي داده هاي 1350 الي 1398 و با استفاده از الگوي رگرسيون خود برداري روابط بلندمدت ميان متغيرهاي الگو آزمون شد. متغيرها در سطح صفر وبر اساس نتايج آمارهاثرو حداكثرمقدارويژه در قالب سه رابطه بلندمدت در سطح0.95 برآورد و نتايج نشان مي دهد كه سه متغيرشاخص قيمت ، خالص صادرت و نرخ بهره بيشترين تأثير را بر افزايش نرخ ارز دارند.

A look at exchange rate developments over the past 40 years shows that the Iranian economy has experienced three major leaps during this period. While the rate of exchange rate increase was not the same in each of the three jumps, and since the economic conditions and structure of countries a decisive role in the relationship between economic variables, so the study of factors affecting the exchange rate in Iran from a postal perspective Keynesians are one of the main goals of this article. In this article, an attempt has been made; By theoretically explaining and designing a model and using econometric methods, the factors affecting the exchange rate in Iran from the perspective of Keynesians were studied. The information and statistics required for the research during the years 1350 to 1398 were collected through the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Statistics Center. In this paper, data were analyzed using self-vector regression. First, using Phillips-Perron test and Johansen static co-integration test and long-run relationships of variables were examined. There is a level of 0.95 between the variables. Using shock analysis and analysis of variance, it was shown that the price index and net exports and interest rates have the greatest impact on the exchange rate.