بررسي ناتوانگري مالي در نظام بانكي ايران و تعيين كننده‌هاي آن

Investigation of Financial Insolvency in the Iranian Banking System and Its Determinants

ورﺷﻜﺴﺘﮕﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻳﻚ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻤﺎﺗﻴﻚ ﻣﻲﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﺮاي ﻧﻬﺎدﻫﺎ و ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎت ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎ، زﻳﺎن ﻫﺎي ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﻬﻲ را ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل داﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ، ﺗﺨﺼﻴﺺ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ را ﻣﺨﺘﻞ ﻛﺮده و رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي را ﻛﻨﺪ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ. ﺑﺮ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ اﺳﺎس، ورﺷﻜﺴﺘﮕﻲ ﺑﺎﻧﻚﻫﺎ ﭘﺪﻳﺪهاي اﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﻧﻚﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﻛﺰي، ﺑﺎﻧﻚﻫﺎ و ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎت ﻣﺎﻟﻲ و اﻋﺘﺒﺎري ﺑﻪ آن ﺗﻮﺟﻪ وﻳﮋهاي دارﻧﺪ. ﻧﺸﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎي ورﺷﻜﺴﺘﮕﻲ ﻗﺒﻞ از وﻗﻮع آن ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺎن ﻣﻲﺷﻮد. ﻧﺎﺗﻮاﻧﮕﺮي ﻳﺎ اﻋﺴﺎر ﻳﻚ زﻧﮓ ﺧﻄﺮ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺑﺮاي ورﺷﻜﺴﺘﮕﻲ اﺳﺖ و ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﻗﺒﻞ از وﻗﻮع آن ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﻣﻲ ﺷﻮد. در اﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺗﻼش ﺷﺪه ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺻﻮرتﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﺎﻧﻚﻫﺎي اﻳﺮان ﻃﻲ دوره زﻣﺎﻧﻲ 1396-1385 و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺑﻪ ﻛﻤﻚ ﻣﺪل ﻻﺟﻴﺖ ﺑﺎﻧﻚﻫﺎي ﻣﻌﺴﺮ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻲ ﺷﻮد و ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل وﻗﻮع اﻋﺴﺎر در ﻧﻈﺎم ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ اﻳﺮان ﺑﺎ ﻃﺮاﺣﻲ ﻳﻚ ﻣﺪل اﻗﺘﺼﺎدﺳﻨﺠﻲ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ و ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻗﺮار ﮔﻴﺮد. ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﻛﻲ از آن اﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺑﻪ درآﻣﺪ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ و ﻣﻌﻨﺎدار ﺑﺮ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل وﻗﻮع اﻋﺴﺎر داﺷﺘﻪ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد ROE ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﻌﻜﻮس و ﻣﻌﻨﺎدار ﺑﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ واﺑﺴﺘﻪ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﻳﻦ ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ و رﺻﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ اﻳﻦ دو ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺎﻧﻚﻫﺎ ﻣﻲﺗﻮاﻧﺪ، ﻫﺸﺪار ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﻲ را از اﻣﻜﺎن وﻗﻮع اﻋﺴﺎر در ﻳﻚ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ نشان دهد

Bankruptcy as a systematic issue can cause significant losses for financial institutions and countries, disrupt resource allocation and slow economic growth. Accordingly, bankruptcy is a phenomenon that all central banks, financial and credit institutions pay particular attention to it. Signs of bankruptcy appear before it occurs. Disability or failure is an important warning sing before bankruptcy which is known as the stage before it occurs. In this paper, we attempted to identify pole banks by using the financial statements of Iranian banks over the period 2006-2017 and also by using Logit model and to analyze the factors affecting the probability of occurrence of fraud in the Iranian banking system by designing an econometric model. The results indicate that the cost to income ratio has a positive and significant effect on the probability of failure and the performance index ROE had on inverse and significant effect on the dependent variable. Therefore, continuous monitoring and observation of these two variables for banks can provide an appropriate warning of the possibility of a bank failure.