تاثير رفتار احساسي سرمايه گذاران با نقش تعديلگر اعتماد عمومي بر قيمت سهام

The Effect of Investors' Emotional Behavior with the Moderating Role of Public Confidence in Stock Prices

ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ رﻓﺘﺎر اﺣﺴﺎﺳﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬاران ﺑﺎ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻠﮕﺮ اﻋﺘﻤﺎد ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﺑﺮ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﺳﻬﺎم در ﺷﺮﮐﺖﻫﺎي ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان ﺑﻪ اﺟﺮا درآﻣﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ از ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﺎﻫﯿﺖ و ﻣﺤﺘﻮا از ﻧﻮع ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ 142 ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ آﻣﺎري را ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ دادهاﻧﺪ در دوره زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 1398-1390 ﻣﻮرد ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ وﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﻣﺪل ﻧﺸﺎن رﻓﺘﺎر اﺣﺴﺎﺳﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬاران ﺑﺎ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻠﮕﺮ اﻋﺘﻤﺎد ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﺑﺮ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﺳﻬﺎم در ﺷﺮﮐﺖﻫﺎي ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ دارد ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﺷﺪه ﻣﺪل ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ 0,446 ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻌﻨﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﺪل ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ 44,6 در از وارﯾﺎﻧﺲ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ واﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﺳﻬﺎم را ﺗﻮﺿﯿﺢ دﻫﺪ.

Nowadays, psychological factors of investors with cognitive aspects can influence investment decisions. Behavioral financial perspective shows that some changes in securities prices have no fundamental reason and the emotional behavior of investors plays an important role in determining prices. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of investors' emotional behavior with the role of moderator of public confidence in stock prices in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. This research is correlational in nature and content. In this research, the information related to 142 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, which have formed a statistical sample, has been analyzed in the period of 2011-2011. The results of this model show the emotional behavior of investors with the moderating role of public confidence on the stock price in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Also, the adjusted coefficient of determination of the model is 0.446. This means that the independent variables of the research model can explain 44.6% of the variances of the dependent variable stock price