كليدواژه :
اعداد راف , ويكور , روش AHP , فرآيند دلفي , مديريت ريسك
چكيده فارسي :
سرمايه‌هاي عظيمي در توسعه منابع آب براي احداث سيستم‌هاي ذخيره و انتقال آب شبكه‌هاي آبياري كشاورزي به كار گرفته مي-شود. از آنجاييكه هر پروژه بر حسب منطقه و مكان جغرافيايي منحصر بفرد مي‌باشد در هنگام اجراي پروژه ريسك‌هاي بالقوه شناسايي نشده‌اي بوجود مي‌آيند، به طور قطع نمي‌توان يك برآورد مالي نسبتا دقيقي را محاسبه نمود. وجود اين ريسك‌ها باعث هدر رفت در سرمايه‌گذاري مي‌شود. از اقدامات موثري كه براي كم كردن اين استهلاك مي‌توان انجام داد، مديريت ريسك است. مديريت ريسك در استاندارد PMBOK دربرگيرنده‌ي شناسايي ريسك‌ها براساس نظرات كارشناسي و رتبه‌بندي ريسك برمبناي دو معيار احتمال وقوع و شدت تأثير است. آبياري كشاورزي دشت سيستان كه از سازه‌هاي مختلفي جهت ذخيره آب و آبياري مزارع استفاده مي‌نمايد جهت مطالعه موردي در اين تحقيق مورد بررسي قرار گرفته شده است. در اين تحقيق از روش دلفي، براي شناسايي ريسك‌ها و از روش فرآيند تحليل سلسله مراتبي به رتبه‌بندي آنها پرداخته شده است كه ريسك‌هاي شرايط جوي و عدم تعهد در انجام كار دقيق اجراي سازه‌هاي آبياري با كيفيت تعريف شده، بالاترين امتياز را به خود تخصيص داده‌اند. در ادامه براي اولويت‌بندي چندين پروژه در منطقه سيستان با در نظر گرفتن ريسك‌هاي شناسايي شده، از روش ويكور استفاده شده كه نتايج نشان مي‌دهد احداث سازه هاي ابياري تحت فشار رتبه اول، احداث ايستگاه پمپاژ و لوله كشي خط انتقال رتبه دوم، اجراي سازه هاي آبياري گلخانه‌اي رتبه سوم و سازه هاي ابياري كانال بتني رتبه چهارم را جهت اجرا با كمترين هزينه ريسك در اين منطقه را به خود اختصاص دادند.
چكيده لاتين :
Huge investments are being made in the development of water resources for the construction of water storage and transmission systems for agricultural irrigation networks. Since each project is unique in terms of region and geographical location, and potential unrecognized risks arise during project implementation, a relatively accurate financial estimate cannot be calculated with certainty. The existence of these risks is a waste of investment. One of the effective measures that can be taken to reduce this depreciation is risk management. Risk management in PMBOK standard includes risk identification based on expert opinions and risk rating based on two criteria: probability of occurrence and severity of impact. Agricultural irrigation of Sistan plain, which uses different structures to store water and irrigate fields, has been studied in a case study in this study. In this research, the Delphi method is used to identify the risks and the hierarchical analysis process method is used to rank them. The risks of weather conditions and lack of commitment to perform accurate work on defined quality irrigation structures are assigned the highest score. have given. In order to prioritize several projects in Sistan region, taking into account the identified risks, Vickor method has been used, which shows the construction of first-class pressure irrigation structures, construction of pumping station and second-line transmission pipeline, construction of structures Irrigation greenhouses ranked third and irrigation structures of concrete canal ranked fourth for implementation with the lowest risk cost in this area.
Introduction
The return on investment in the construction of irrigation structures is achieved in the long run. These projects involve multiple stakeholders and their scope is influenced by many factors. The management of these projects is difficult and complex and requires multiple coordination to overcome these limitations [1]. Also, increasing investment in irrigation sectors, in addition to meeting basic needs, can have a positive impact on advancing strategic goals. [2] One of the most important issues in defining the types of irrigation structures is the uncertainty that they face due to the large size of the project or its uniqueness [3]. Existence of risk causes problems in project implementation, cost estimation, decline in quality and productivity of the project, as well as its delay [4]. Therefore, identifying uncertainties and analyzing risks play an important role in achieving the project's goals. Therefore, risks are performed according to the PMBOK standard and by probability-effect diagram, which is one of the pillars of risk management [5]. On the other hand, the impact of risks on structures is very important for their prioritization. Structural prioritization is also one of the most important factors of financial success for the Agricultural Jihad Organization [6]. For this purpose, multi-criteria decision-making strategy can be used to identify less risky structures [2]. Vickor method is one of the multi-criteria decision making tools that can determine the best and worst project with different criteria [7]. Since there is a kind of uncertainty in identifying and evaluating risks that includes personal comments or insufficient information in that field, the theory of rough number sets can be used to eliminate these types of uncertainties. [6]
Methodology
Existence of various and influential factors has caused uncertainties in choosing the most appropriate irrigation structure and also one of the topics that is less practically used within organizations is risk management. Therefore, in this study, the identification and scientific evaluation of risks in the construction of irrigation structures has been done. Risk management is used to execute the project on time and to prevent the estimated price increase, as well as to prevent excessive losses. Then, in order to evaluate the risks in the studied irrigation structures, the risks were identified and their importance was determined by using the combinations of Delphi and AHP methods. Ruff number theory has also been used to incorporate uncertainty into problems. The results obtained from the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method indicated that the risks of weather conditions and lack of commitment to perform the exact work of the project with the defined quality have the highest score. In the following research, the risks are assigned to the irrigation structures of the studied organization with the help of VIKOR multi-criteria decision making method. The results obtained from VIKOR method include a list of ranking of irrigation structures based on the degree of risk impact on their construction performance. These rankings are as follows: construction of pressurized irrigation structures in the first place, construction of pumping station and pipeline in the second place, construction of greenhouse irrigation structures in the third place and concrete canal irrigation structures in the fourth place. This ranking can help to manage risks and select projects with less risk, and managers can also prioritize low-risk projects to build, and avoid high-risk projects.
