بهينه سازي الگوي كشت مبتني بر مديريت ريسك در شبكه آبياري پاياب سد يامچي اردبيل

Optimization of Cultivation Pattern Based on Risk Management in the Downstream Irrigation Network of Ardabil Yamchi Dam

ﮏ راﻫﺒﺮد ﻣﻬﻢ در ﻣﺼﺮف ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ آب در ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﺿـﺮ ﺗﻼﺷـﯽ ﺑـﺮاي ﺗﻮﺳـﻌﻪ و ارزﯾـﺎﺑﯽ ﭼﻬـﺎر ﻣـﺪ ﻫﯿﺒﺮﯾﺪي ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎي ﺑﯿﺸﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزي ﻧﺮخ ﺑﺎزدﻫﯽ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و ﮐﻤﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزي رﯾﺴﮏ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب اﻟﮕﻮي ﮐﺸﺖ ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ اﺳـﺎس ﺷـﺎﺧﺺ ﻫـﺎي رﯾﺴـﮏ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ وارﯾﺎﻧﺲ )ﻣﺪل MVar(، ﻧﯿﻢ وارﯾﺎﻧﺲ )ﻣﺪل MSVar(، ﻗﺪر ﻣﻄﻠﻖ اﻧﺤﺮاف از ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ )ﻣﺪل MADev( و ارزش در ﻣﻌﺮض رﯾﺴﮏ ﺷﺮﻃﯽ )ﻣﺪل MCOVaR( و ﺑﺎ رﻋﺎﯾﺖ ﻗﯿﻮد ﺣﺎﮐﻢ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﻧﺪ و در ﯾﮏ ﺳﻄﺢ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﯽ اﻣﮑﺎن ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي اﻟﮕﻮي ﮐﺸﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻧﺮخ ﺑﺎزدﻫﯽ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و ﮐﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ رﯾﺴﮏ ﮐﻪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ اﻧﺪازه ﮔﯿﺮي اﺳﺖ، را در ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ ﮔﯿﺮي ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﻣﯽآورﻧﺪ. داده ﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرداﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ آﺑﯿﺎري ﭘﺎﯾﺎب ﺳـﺪ ﯾﺎﻣﭽﯽ اردﺑﯿﻞ و ﺑﺮاي ﺳﺎل زراﻋﯽ 1397-98 ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎ در ﻣﺤﯿﻂ MATLAB ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰي ﻏﯿﺮﺧﻄﯽ و ﺣﻞ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ ﺳﺎزي ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از اﻟﮕﻮرﯾﺘﻢ ازدﺣﺎم ذرات و ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﭼﻨﺪﻫﺪﻓﻪ اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺪار ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ در رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎ ﺑـﺎ ﻣﻌﺎدﻟـﻪ ﻓﻮرﯾـﻪ ﺑـﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان R2=0/9997 ﺑﺎ دﻗﺖ )0/0011=RMSE( ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺪل MADev ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺑﺎزدﻫﯽ ﺑﻪ 0/31 ﻣﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻪ ﺳـ ﯿﺐ زﻣﯿﻨـ ﯽ ﺑﺎ ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ رﯾﺴﮏ 58% و ﮐﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺪار ﺑﺎزدﻫﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺪار 0,13 ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﮔﯿﺎه ذرت ﺑﺎ ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ رﯾﺴﮏ 63% اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ 50 ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي ﺑﻬﺘﺮﯾﻦ اﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﺖ ﻣﻤﮑﻦ ازﻧﻈﺮ ارﺿﺎي ﺗﻮاﺑﻊ ﻫﺪف و ﻗﯿﻮد ﺣﺎﮐﻢ، ﺟﺒﻬﻪ ﮐﺎراي ﺗﮏ ﺗﮏ ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎ ﺗﺮﺳﯿﻢ و ﺟﺪول ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ درآﻣﺪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺮاي ﺳﻄﻮح رﯾﺴﮏ 20% و 30% اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج و اراﺋﻪ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه در ﺗﻤﺎم ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺑﺎزدﻫﯽ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺳـﻄﺢ رﯾﺴـﮏ ﭘـﺬﯾﺮي ﺳﯿﺴـﺘﻢ در اﻧﺘﺨـﺎب اﻟﮕـﻮي ﮐﺸﺖ ﻫﺎي ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ ﺑﻮده و اﯾﻦ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ در ﻣﺪلMADev ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺑﻘﯿﻪ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎ از ﺷﯿﺐ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮي ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار اﺳﺖ و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ رﯾﺴﮏ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي، اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮ ﮐﺸﺖ ﮔﯿﺎﻫﺎن ﺑﺎ ﻣﺼﺮف آب ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ را در ﭘﯽ دارد.

Cropping pattern optimization is an important strategy in the optimal use of water in agriculture. The present study attempted to develop and evaluate four hybrid models based on maximizing economic return rate and minimizing risk based on risk indices including variance (MVar model), semi-variance (MSVar model), absolute value deviation from mean (MADev model) and conditional value at risk (MCOVaR model). The MCOVaR model is governed by observing the rules, which at a selective confidence level allows determining the best cropping pattern scenario with selective return rate and the lowest risk that can be measured in the decision-making stage. The data used are related to the downstream irrigation network of Ardabil Yamchi Dam and for the 1397-98 crop year. The development of the model in MATLAB is based on nonlinear programming and optimization problem solving using particle swarm algorithm in a multi-objective solution. The highest correlation coefficient in regression of the models with Fourier equation was R2=0.9997 with accuracy (RMSE=0.0011) for MADev model, The results showed that the highest yield of 0.31 belonged to potatoes with a maximum risk of 58% and the lowest yield of 0.13 belonged to the maize plant with a maximum risk of 63%. By calculating 50 scenarios of the best possible cropping patterns in terms of satisfying the target functions and governing conditions, the pareto front of each model was drawn and the table of system income values for risk levels of 20% and 30% was extracted and presented. The results obtained in all models indicate an increase in economic efficiency by increasing the risk level of the system in selecting the optimal cropping pattern and this increase in MADev model is more steep than other models and increasing risk-taking leads to increasing the area under cultivation of plants with more water consumption.