چكيده لاتين :
Rise of urbanization in last century has led to the formation of large cities and the accumulation of human population in concentrated urban areas. Commercial centers in large cities are considered as the metropolitan critical areas. Commercial centers in metropolises are prone to crisis and the accidents in these centers can lead to human, social, and economic disasters. The presence of old textures, monuments, cultural features, large numbers of visitors per day, incompatibility of traffic routes with some of these centers, weak infrastructure and facilities, etc. increase the importance of crisis management in metropolitan commercial centers. In recent years, existence of some major weaknesses in crisis management in metropolises has revealed the need for complementary approaches such as resilience engineering. Resilience engineering is a new approach to measuring and maintaining safety in complex systems, with the goal of maintaining the capacity of the organization at an acceptable level to face crisis and maintaining the ability of the organization to return to its pre-crisis state.
Methods: The purpose of this study was to design a questionnaire for crisis management assessment in commercial centers, based on resilient engineering approach. Several commercial centers of Tehran were selected for this study. Management commitment, reporting culture, learning culture, transparency, preparedness, awareness, and flexibility were considered as the main criteria of resilience engineering (RE). After identifying the main criteria, the questionnaire questions were extracted based on literature review, field studies, experts’ opinions, and the use of contextual content analysis, . Then a questionnaire with 97 questions was designed according to experts’ opinions. This questionnaire was evaluated by 17 experts of safety and crisis management, using Delphi technique. For initial screening of identified sub-criteria, a score between 1 to 5 was assigned for each of them and any sub-criteria with score of less than 3 was omitted. The Delphi technique was applied in two rounds and a questionnaire with 68 questions was approved in the second round. Kendall's coefficient of concordance was used to calculate the consistency of experts' opinions. The ANP model was then used for weighting and prioritizing the sub-criteria. The sub-criteria were compared in pairs based Saaty’s 1-9 scale. Reliability of the questionnaire was assessed by calculating the inconsistency rate. If the inconsistency rate of the pairwise comparisons is greater than 0.1, it is better to revise the comparisons. DEMATEL technique was used to identify criteria interrelationships. The matrix derived from the DEMTEL technique (Interrelationships matrix) is able to show the causal relationship between the effectiveness of the variables and their capacity to be influenced by the other factors.
The technique involved the following steps:
1. Creating the direct relationship matrix (M): When using opinions of multiple individuals, the simple average of their opinions is used and M is formed.
2. Normalization of the direct relationship matrix
3. Calculating the complete relationship matrix
4. Creating a causal diagram
5- Displaying Network Relationship Map (NRM)
In this study, we used experts’ opinions (in a 5-point scale) again to complete and evaluate the tables.
The ANP analysis consists of four steps. Step 1: Identifying the main criteria; Step 2: Identify interrelationships; Step 3: Determining the overall priorities; and Step 4: testing the consistency.
In order to determine the final priority of the criteria by the ANP technique, the unbalanced super-matrix, balanced super-matrix, and finally the limit super-matrix must be calculated. Each component of the diagram is calculated at different stages of the pairwise comparison technique and DEMATEL. Therefore, the unbalanced Super-matrix structure can be visualized by entering this data into the final model structure designed with SuperDecision software. The unbalanced super-matrix is transformed into the balanced super-matrix using normalization technique. In the balanced matrix, the sum of the elements of each column is equal to 1. Finally, the limit super-matrix is calculated. The limit super-matrix is achieved by raising the power of all elements of the balanced super-matrix. In the SuperDecision software, this operation is repeated until all the elements of the super-matrix become equal to each other. In this case, all elements of the super-matrix will be zero, and only the elements of each sub-criterion will be a number that is repeated throughout the row corresponding to that sub-criterion.
Based on the calculations and the limit super-matrix, the final priorities of sub-criteria were derived by the SuperDecision software. In this study, TOPSIS technique was used to select the best shopping center among other shopping complexes in Tehran.
The sub-criteria related to the main criteria for shopping centers were identified and evaluated.
Therefore, to identify the best shopping center, the scoring matrix for the shopping centers was created based on the sub-criteria. The 5-point Likert scale was used to score the shopping centers based on each sub-criterion. The score for each of the shopping centers was calculated based on the simple average of the experts’ opinions.
In the next step, the matrix was made dimensionless and then the dimensionless balanced matrix was created. Then the most positive and the most negative options and the distance of each option from them were calculated. In this method, the highest priority is given to the option which has the highest distance from the most negative option and the least distance from the positive option. Finally, the research data were analyzed through multiple case studies in 7 commercial complexes using a researcher-made questionnaire to determine the level of resilience. The data were analyzed using Excel and SPSS 18 software.
Results: Based on the Kendall's coefficient of concordance, the consistency rate of experts' opinions in the first and second rounds were 0.317 and 0.637, respectively. The results showed that management commitment, preparedness, awareness, culture of reporting, flexibility, culture of learning, and transparency (which had normalized weights of 0.182, 0.80, 0.178, 0.155, 0. 128, 0.100, and 0.077, respectively) had the priorities of 1 to 7 respectively. The results of the management commitment sub-criteria analysis showed that setting and communicating the policies and objectives of crisis management in the commercial complex by the manager was the first priority (with the normalized weight of 0.168). Issues such as the building structure and selecting the right people, the manager's attention to the importance of building safety, preparing the plans, and providing the resources and equipment needed for the complex were the next priorities. The inconsistency rate of the comparisons was 0.038 which is less than 0.1 and therefore the comparisons can be trusted.
For the culture of reporting sub-criterion, tendency of individuals to report errors and unsafe situations in the commercial centers was the first priority (with the normalized weight of 0.132). Therefore, organizations should always pay attention to reports provided by employees and customers. The inconsistency rate of the comparisons was 0.052 which is less than 0.1.
For the culture of learning sub-criterion, the commercial centers’ use of previous accidents and crises to better respond to future events was the first priority (with the normalized weight of 0.238). Learning from crisis simulation and practical exercises to build up teamwork experience for speeding up reactions to similar events were the next priorities. The results of this prioritization of learning culture sub-criteria indicate the importance of learning from past events to prevent similar events. The inconsistency rate of the comparisons was 0.053, which is less than 0.1.
For the transparency sub-criterion, Identification of non-conformities and deviation of commercial complexes from normal safety limits was the first priority (with the normalized weight of 0.084). The inconsistency rate of the comparisons was 0.084, which is less than 0.1.
For the preparedness sub-criterion, existence of a crisis management team in the commercial center was the first priority (with the normalized weight of 0.161) and creating and communicating the emergency response document, deploying the safety management system, identifying related risks in commercial complexes, developing and implementing the preventive programs and plans, implementing the safety rules and regulations to inspect and retrofit structural and non-structural components of commercial complexes, increasing their resistance against crisis, anticipating cooperation with foreign relief organizations, alert systems readiness, smart fire alarm systems, performing maneuvering operations, and training of employees and tradepeople were the next priorities, respectively. The inconsistency rate of the comparisons was 0.056, which is less than 0.1.
For the awareness criterion, reporting of the complex safety problems was the first priority (with the normalized weight of 0.142). Defining a transparent communication mechanism to report safety concerns, increasing intergroup coordination and collaboration at a time of crisis, and how they perform their tasks against task descriptions were the next priorities, respectively. The inconsistency rate of the comparisons was 0.084, which is less than 0.1.
For the flexibility criterion, sub-criterion of ability to control unforeseen environmental conditions by management was the first priority (with the normalized weight of 0.25). Employee decision-making without unnecessary waiting for management orders was the next priority. The inconsistency rate of the comparisons was 0.0089, which is less than 0.1.
DEMATEL technique showed that the management commitment was the most effective criterion and had the least capacity to be influenced by the other factors. The criterion of preparedness had the highest capacity to be influenced by the other factors. The criterion of transparency had the highest interaction with other criteria.
Calculation of the final priorities of the sub-criteria performed by the ANP technique showed that the sub-criterion of identifying non-conformities and deviation from safety boundaries was the first priority (with the normalized weight of 0.0448), the commercial centers’ use of previous accidents and crises to better respond to future events was the second priority (with the normalized weight of 0.34), sub-criterion manager ability to control unforeseen environmental conditions was the third priority (with the normalized weight of 0.0293), and simulating crisis and performing practical exercises to create teamwork experience and increase reaction speed was the fourth priority (with the normalized weight of 0.0278).
Conclusion: Based on the results of the research, in the crisis management of commercial complexes based on the resilience engineering approach, management commitment and preparedness are the most significant criteria and transparency is the least significant criterion in creating resilience against crises.
Assessment of the relationship between the main criteria using DEMATEL technique showed that the management commitment was the most effective criterion. The criterion of preparedness had the highest capacity to be influenced by the other factors. The criterion of transparency had the highest interaction with other criteria. Assessment of crisis management based on resilience approach by using TOPSIS technique for commercial complexes in Tehran showed that complex No. 4 among other complexes was more resilient to crises. This indicates that all aspects of crisis management in commercial complexes are considered in the proposed questionnaire. One of the differences of this study with the existing studies is the use of fuzzy logic to rank and determine the significance of each sub-criterion in the crisis assessment questionnaire based on resilience approach in commercial centers.
According to the results of the research and the final priorities of the sub-criteria in ANP technique which was derived using limit super matrix and SuperDecision software, some steps are needed to improve the crisis management situation in commercial complexes, including: creating a crisis management team for tradepeople and trade :union:s, providing financial resources and equipment needed to create and enhance safety and efficient crisis management, providing training courses for coping with crisis, simulating the crisis and performing practical exercises to create teamwork experience and increase reaction speed, encouraging the employees and tradepeople and even customers to report unsafe situations in the commercial centers, simulating fire in commercial center using software and eventually creating a template for coordination and cooperation of related groups and individuals in times of crisis.
overall, the results showed that the designed crisis assessment questionnaire based on the seven principles of resilience engineering, is efficient and appropriate for assessing crisis management in commercial complexes and this questionnaire can be used to know the current situation of crisis management in commercial complexes.
