تحليل الگوي فضايي تاب‌آوري منطقه‌اي در سيستم اطلاعات جغرافيايي با رويكرد برنامه‌ريزي در منطقه‌ي حاشيه‌ي شرقي درياچه‌ي اروميه

Spatial Analysis of Regional Resilience in Geographic Information Systems with a Planning Approach Eastern Region of Urmia Lake

روﯾﮑﺮد ﺗﺎب آوري، ﺑﺮآﯾﻨﺪ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺎراداﯾﻢ ﭘﺎﯾﺪاري در ﺣﻮزه ي ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي در اﺑﻌﺎد و ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﻣﺘﻔﺎوت ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان رﻫﯿﺎﻓﺘﯽ ﻧﻮﯾﻦ، ﺳﺎﯾﻪ در ﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﻣﺤﻠﯽ ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮدي ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ در ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪاي دارد. ﺑﺎاﯾﻦ ﺣﺎل، ﻣﻔﻬﻮم ﺗﺎب آوري ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان روﯾﮑﺮدي ﻧﻮﻇﻬﻮر در ادﺑﯿﺎت ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي و ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﭘﺪﯾﺪار ﮔﺸﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﻮرﯾﺖ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي در ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﺗﺎبآوري ﻫﺪف اﺻﻠﯽ آن، ﺗﺸﺮﯾﺢ اﻟﮕﻮي ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ ﺣﺎﮐﻢ ﺑﺮ ﯾﮏ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ اﺳﺖ؛ ازاﯾﻦ رو ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ي ﮐﺮاﻧﻪ ي ﺷﺮﻗﯽ درﯾﺎﭼﻪ ي اروﻣﯿﻪ )در ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﺤﺪوده ﻫﺎي ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ 8 ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن( ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ي ﻣﻮردﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. روش ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪي ﺣﺎﺿﺮ، ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ و ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮي از روشﻫﺎي ﮐﻤﯽ GIS-ﻣﺒﻨﺎ و اﺑﺰارﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ زﻣﯿﻦآﻣﺎري در ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎﯾﯽ اﺳﺖ. ﭘﺲ از اراﺋﻪي وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﺗﺎبآوري ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪاي در ﺳﻪ ﻣﻌﯿﺎر ﺗﺎب آوري اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ، زﯾﺮﺳﺎﺧﺖﻫﺎ و اﺳﺘﺤﮑﺎم ﺑﻨﺎي ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻧﯽ در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ، درﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﮐﻠﯽ ﺗﺎبآوري ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪاي )ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از 19 ﻣﻌﯿﺎر( اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ي ﺑﻌﺪ، ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻣﻮران و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻟﮑﻪﻫﺎي داغ اﻟﮕﻮي ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﺗﺎبآوري ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎي ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ اﻟﮕﻮي ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻃﺒﻘﺎت ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺗﺎب آوري ﮐﻠﯽ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از آﻣﺎرهي ﻣﻮران از ﻧﻮع اﻟﮕﻮي ﺧﻮﺷﻪاي اﺳﺖ. ﻣﻘﺪار ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻣﻮران در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ 0/282 اﺳﺖ و ازآﻧﺠﺎﯾﯽ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻘﺪار آن ﻣﺜﺒﺖ و ﻧﺰدﯾﮏ ﺑﻪ ﯾﮏ اﺳﺖ، ﻟﺬا ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﮐﻪ داده ﻫﺎ داراي ﺧﻮدﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻨﺎد ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺑﻮدن اﻣﺘﯿﺎز اﺳﺘﺎﻧﺪارد Z و ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ ﺑﻮدن ﻣﻘﺪارP-value ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﻓﺮﺿﯿﻪي ﻋﺪم وﺟﻮد ﺧﻮدﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺗﺎبآوري در ﭘﻬﻨﻪ ي ﻣﻮردﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ را رد ﻧﻤﻮد.

The resiliency approach has the potential to pay attention to the sustainability paradigm in the area of planning in different dimensions and sectors as a new shadow approach to local policies with a global approach to regional development. However, the concept of resilience has emerged over the past years as an emerging approach to environmental planning and management literature. In this research, with the focus of planning in the explanation of the resilience, the main objective is to describe the spatial pattern of study region. Therefore, the eastern part of Lake Urmia (in the form of political districts of 8 counties) was selected as the study area. The research method is analytical and utilizes quantitative GIS-based methods and spatial analysis tools as well as geospatial techniques. After presenting regional resilience status in three dimensions of social resilience, infrastructures and building strength in rural areas, finally the overall regional resilience index (using 19 criteria) were presented.The findings of this study showed that the distribution pattern of the general resonance index using Moran statistics is a cluster pattern type. The value of the Moran index in this analysis is 282/0 and since its value is positive and close to one, it can be concluded that the data have spatially correlated self-correlation. Also, based on the high standard Z score and the very small amount of P-value, it is possible to reject the hypothesis of the lack of self-correlation between the distributions of vibration in the studied area.