توسعه‌ مدل ريسك ايمني شبكه ريلي مبتني بر ريزش تونل به كمك شبكه بيزي

Developing a safety risk model for railway network considering tunnel fall using Bayesian network

ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﯾﻤﻨﯽ ﺷﺒﮑﻪي ﺣﻤﻞ و ﻧﻘﻞ رﯾﻠﯽ، ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﺑﺨﺶ زﯾﺮﺑﻨﺎﯾﯽ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد، ﺑﺎزﺗﺎﺑﯽ از ﺳﻄﺢ اﯾﻤﻨﯽ ﮐﻞ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﺣﻤﻞ و ﻧﻘﻞ ﮐﺸﻮر ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﯾﮑﯽ از ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎي ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪﮐﻨﻨﺪهي اﯾﻤﻨﯽ در ﺷﺒﮑﻪي رﯾﻠﯽ، وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﺗﻮﻧﻞﻫﺎي راهآﻫﻦ ﮐﺸﻮر ﺑﻪ ﻟﺤﺎظ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد در دورهي ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻋﻮاﻗﺐ ﺧﻄﺮات آن اﺳﺖ. اﻣﺮوزه، ﺷﺒﮑﮥ ﺑﯿﺰي، روش ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪهاي ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﮔﺮاﻓﯿﮑﯽ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ در رﺧﺪاد ﺣﻮادث و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت ﺷﺮﻃﯽ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر اراﺋﻪي ﻣﺪﻟﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ رﯾﺴﮏ و اﻧﻄﺒﺎق ﻫﺮﭼﻪ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ آن ﺑﺎ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد ﺗﻮﻧﻞﻫﺎي رﯾﻠﯽ ﮐﺸﻮر، ﻣﺮاﺣﻞ ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي اﺛﺮ رﯾﺴﮏ رﯾﺰش ﺗﻮﻧﻞ در دو ﺑﺨﺶ اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در ﺑﺨﺶ ﻧﺨﺴﺖ، ﻋﻠﻞ و ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﺻﻠﯽ و ﻣﻮرد اﺗﻔﺎق ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن در رﯾﺰش ﺗﻮﻧﻞ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ و ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﺗﻮاﺗﺮ رﺧﺪاد، اﻣﺘﯿﺎزدﻫﯽ ﺷﺪه و ﺷﺒﮑﻪي ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ اﺟﺮا ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. در ﺑﺨﺶ دوم، ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﭘﺲ از رﯾﺰش ﺗﻮﻧﻞ، ﻋﻮاﻗﺐ ﺣﺎدﺛﻪ و ﺑﺮﺧﯽ اﻗﺪاﻣﺎت اﺻﻼﺣﯽ ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي، ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ و در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ اراﺋﻪ ﻣﺪل رﯾﺴﮏ اﯾﻤﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻫﺮ ﮐﺪام از درﺟﺎت ﺷﺪت ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﺷﺪه، ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس آﻣﺎر ﺣﻮادث رﯾﻠﯽ ده ﺳﺎل اﺧﯿﺮ و ﺑﺎ اﻟﮕﻮرﯾﺘﻢ ﺷﺒﮑﮥ ﺑﯿﺰي در ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار ﻣﺘﻠﺐ اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺧﺮوﺟﯽ ﻣﺪل ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﻧﻔﻮذ آب در ﺗﻮﻧﻞﻫﺎي ﺑﺪون ﭘﻮﺷﺶ داﺋﻤﯽ، ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﺷﺪﯾﺪﺗﺮﯾﻦ رﯾﺴﮏ ﺑﺎ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺗﻮاﺗﺮ، ﮐﻪ ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﺗﻌﺎرﯾﻒ دﺳﺘﻮراﻟﻌﻤﻞﻫﺎي ﻣﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻋﻠﺖ و ﺷﺪت درﺟﻪ اول" ﻃﺒﻘﻪﺑﻨﺪي ﻣﯽﺷﻮد، ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ذﮐﺮ اﺳﺖ.

Evaluating the safety of the railway network as the fundamental part of the economy development reflects the safety of the entire transportation network of a country. One of the challenges threatening the railway safety is the railway tunnel conditions in terms of safe operating during operation period and analyzing the consequences of its hazards. Today, Bayesian network are the most identified methods to graphically model the causes of accidents and their conditional probabilities. In order to develop a model that best matches the real condition of the railway tunnels risks, modeling process divided in to two sections; in the first section, the compromised causes that identified and concluded by the specialists scored according to their frequency of happening and the related network constructed. Second section joints the cause and consequence analysis of different scenarios offering remedial actions and concluding the final model based on severity degrees defined. Outcome of the model shows the high probability for water penetration in tunnels without permanent lining as the most important cause and the first degree of the accident severity according to the guideline as the most frequent consequence of the risks identified.