كاربست آينده پژوهي در برنامه ريزي حفاظتي بافت تاريخي (مورد مطالعه: عرصۀ ثبت جهاني يزد)

Foresight Application in conservation planning for urban Historical Context - The Case of world heritage core zone Yazd city

ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ از ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﻫﺎي ﺑﺎ ارزش ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي، اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ، زﯾﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ و ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار دارد ﮐـﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ اﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮان ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮات واردﺷﺪه ﺑﺮ ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﻫﺎي ﺑﺎ ارزش ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ را ﺷـﻨﺎﺧﺖ و ﺑـﺮا ي ﻫـﺮ ﺷـﺮا ﯾﻄﯽ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰي ﮐﺮد. ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ از ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﻫﺎي ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ و ﻣﯿﺮاﺛﯽ، از ﺿﺮورت ﻫﺎي ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰي ﺑﺮاي اﯾﻦ ﻧﻮع ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﻫﺎ اﺳﺖ، اﻣﺎ وﺟﻮد ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪه و در ﺣﺎل ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ، ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ را دﭼﺎر ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ ﮐﻪ ازﺟﻤﻠﮥ اﯾﻦ ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﻫﺎ ﻣـ ﯽ ﺗـﻮان ﺑـﻪ ﺗـﺪاوم ﻓﺮﺳﻮدﮔﯽ و ازدﺳﺖ دادن ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﺑﻮﻣﯽ اﺷﺎره ﮐﺮد. اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﻫﺎي ﻧﻮآوراﻧﮥ آﯾﻨﺪه ﭘﮋوﻫﯽ، اﯾـ ﻦ اﻣﮑـﺎن را ﺑـﺮا ي ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰان ﺷﻬﺮي ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺎ ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﻫﺎ و ﻋﺪم ﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﮐﻨﻨﺪ؛ ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ، ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈـﻮر ﺗـﺪو ﯾﻦ ادﺑﯿﺎﺗﯽ آﯾﻨﺪه ﻣﺤﻮر ﺑﺮاي ﻣﻮاﺟﻬﻪ و ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ از ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﻫﺎي ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ، اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺼﻮﯾﺮﮐﺸـ ﯿﺪن آﯾﻨـﺪه ﻫـﺎ ي ﺑﺎﻓـﺖ ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ ﺷﻬﺮ، اﺑﺘﺪا ﺑﻪ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﮐﻠﯿﺪي ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ ﯾﺰد ﻣﯽ ﭘﺮدازد. ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ وﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ و اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﺛﺮ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ، ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي آﯾﻨﺪة ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ را ﺗﺪوﯾﻦ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ. روش ﺟﻤـﻊ آوري اﻃﻼﻋﺎت، اﺳﻨﺎدي و ﻣﯿﺪاﻧﯽ )ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ( اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﮔﯿـ ﺮي ﻫﺪﻓﻤﻨـﺪ ، 10 ﻧﻔـﺮ از ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼـ ﺎن ﺷﻨﺎﺳـﺎ ﯾﯽ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ داراي داﻧﺶ و ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ در ﻣﻮﺿﻮع ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ. اﯾﻦ اﻓﺮاد ﺷﺎﻣﻞ اﻋﻀﺎي ﻫﯿﺌﺖ ﻋﻠﻤﯽ )در ﺣﻮزة ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺎزي، ﻣﺮﻣﺖ و آﯾﻨﺪه ﭘﮋوﻫﯽ(، ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﺎن ﻣﺸﺎور در ﺣﻮزة ﺑﺎزآﻓﺮﯾﻨﯽ و ﻣﺮﻣﺖ ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ ﯾﺰد، اﻋﻀﺎي ﭘﺮوﻧﺪة ﺛﺒﺖ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ و ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻻن در ﭘﺎﯾﮕﺎه ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ ﯾﺰد و ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻻن ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ در ﺷـﻬﺮدار ي ﯾـ ﺰد ﻫﺴـﺘﻨﺪ. ﺑـﺎ ﺑﺮرﺳـ ﯽ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌـﺎت اﺳﻨﺎدي و ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ، ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﮐﻠﯿﺪي ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ ﯾﺰد ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ و ﺑﺎ ﻧﻈـﺮ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼـ ﺎن ﺗﺤﻘﯿـ ﻖ، اﯾـ ﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﮐﻠﯿﺪي ﺗﺪوﯾﻦ و ﺗﻨﻈﯿﻢ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. 22 ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﮐﻠﯿﺪي ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺪه ﺑﻪ وﺳﯿﻠﮥ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﺎن ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ، ارزش ﮔﺬاري ﺷـﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪ ﮐﻤﮏ ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار ﻣﯿﮏ ﻣﮏ، داده ﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ از ﻧﻈﺮ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬاري و ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ وﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸـﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﭘﯿﺸﺮان ﻫﺎي ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ آﯾﻨﺪة ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ، ﻣﯿﺰان واﺑﺴﺘﮕﯽ درآﻣﺪ دوﻟـﺖ ﺑـﻪ اﻗﺘﺼـﺎد ﻧﻔﺘـ ﯽ، ﺗـﻮان رﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻠﻠﯽ و اﻟﮕﻮي ﻣﺼﺮف اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ از ﺑﺮﺧﻮرد اﯾﻦ ﭘﯿﺸﺮان ﻫﺎ، ﻫﺸﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﺗـﺎر ﯾﺨﯽ ﯾـ ﺰد ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮان ﻣﺘﺼﻮر ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺎ درﻧﻈﺮداﺷﺘﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻖ ﻫﺮ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ، ﻓﻀﺎي ﻣﻮﺟﻮد در آن ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ ﺗﺪوﯾﻦ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﮐـﻪ در ا ﯾـ ﻦ ﻣﯿﺎن، ارﮐﺎن ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺎزي ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ ﯾﺰد )ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ، دﺳﺘﺮﺳﯽ، ﺣﻔﻆ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮدﻫﺎي ﺑﺎ ارزش، ﺗﻮﺳﻌﮥ ﮐﺎﻟﺒﺪي، ﭘﻮﯾـ ﺎﯾﯽ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ-ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮕﯽ، ﺑﻬﺒﻮد اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي، ﻫﻢ زﯾﺴﺘﯽ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ و ﺣﻔﻆ ارزش ﻫﺎي اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ( در ﻫﺮ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺪ.

The preservation of historical texture is affected by economic, social, environmental, and political factors that can identify the impacts on historical valuable tissues and can be programmed to identify these factors. Using Innovative Future Methods Research enables urban planners to address environmental challenges and uncertainties. This study attempts to depict the future of the historical context of the city, first identifying the key factors influencing the development and formulate future scenarios of the historical context by analyzing these factors using the cross-impact analysis method. The method of data collection is the Literature Review and interview. Targeted sampling identified 10 experts who have knowledge and experience in the field of research and analyzed the data with the help of Micmac software. The results show that the factors affecting the future of the historical context are the extent of the government's dependence on the oil economy, international competitiveness, and consumption patterns. Eight scenarios for the historical context of Yazd can be deduced from the impact of these key factors. With the logic of each scenario, the atmosphere in that scenario has been developed, among which the urban planning elements of Yazd historical context (conservation, access, preservation of valuable functions, physical development, socio-cultural dynamics, economic recovery, coexistence with the environment an‎d the preservation of human values) in each scenario.