پديد آورندگان :
موحدي، محمد دانشگاه شهيد چمران اهواز - دانشكده مهندسي آب و محيط زيست - گروه هيدرولوژي و منابع آب , زارعي، حيدر دانشگاه شهيد چمران اهواز - دانشكده مهندسي آب و محيط زيست - گروه هيدرولوژي و منابع آب , شهبازي، علي سازمان آب و برق خوزستان
كليدواژه :
حوضه مارون-جراحي , مدل‌سازي , مديريت منابع آب , WEAP
چكيده فارسي :
ﺳﺎﺑﻘﻪ و ﻫﺪف: ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اراﺿﯽ ﮐﺸﺎورزي، وﻗﻮع ﺧﺸﮏ ﺳﺎﻟﯽ ﻫﺎ و ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺳﺒﺐ ﺷﺪه ﺗﺎ ﺣﻮﺿﻪ ﻣﺎرون- ﺟﺮاﺣﯽ ﺑﻪ ﯾﮑﯽ از ﭘﺮﺗﻨﺶ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺣﻮﺿﻪ ﻫﺎي آﺑﺮﯾﺰ ﻫﻢ ازﻧﻈﺮ ﮐﻤﯽ و ﻫﻢ ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻞ ﮔﺮدد. ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ وﺟﻮد ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﺎي آﺑﯿﺎري و زﻫﮑﺸﯽ ﻣﺘﻌﺪد در اﯾﻦ ﺣﻮﺿﻪ، ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺛﺮ زﻫﺎب ﻫﺎي ﺑﺮﮔﺸﺘﯽ اﯾﻦ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ اي ﺑﺴﯿﺎر داراي اﻫﻤﯿﺖ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ دارا ﺑﻮدن ﭘﺘﺎﻧﺴﯿﻞ آﺑﯽ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ، ﺣﻮﺿﻪ ﻣﻮردﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻫﻤﻮاره ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﺎي آﺑﯿﺎري و زﻫﮑﺸﯽ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ؛ ﻫﻢ ﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﺗﺎﻻب ﺷﺎدﮔﺎن در اﻧﺘﻬﺎي اﯾﻦ ﺣﻮﺿﻪ، اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﮐﻤﯽ و ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب را دوﭼﻨﺪان ﻧﻤﻮده اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﯿﻦ دﻟﯿﻞ در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ زﻫﺎب ﻫﺎي ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﺎي آﺑﯿﺎري و زﻫﮑﺸﯽ و ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻫﺎي ﺳﻨﺘﯽ ﺑﺮ ﮐﻤﯿﺖ و ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ و ﻣﻬﻢ ﺗﺮ از آن ﻧﻘﻄﻪ اﻧﺘﻬﺎﯾﯽ رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺟﺮاﺣﯽ و ورودي ﺑﻪ ﺗﺎﻻب ﺷﺎدﮔﺎن ﻣﻮردﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﺷﺒﯿﻪ ﺳﺎزي ﮐﻤﯽ و ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﺣﻮﺿﻪ ﺑﺮاي دوره 60 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺪل WEAP اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﮐﻪ ﺗﺎﮐﻨﻮن ﻫﯿﭻ ﯾﮏ از ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه در ﺣﻮﺿﻪ ﻣﺎرون- ﺟﺮاﺣﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺟﺎﻣﻊ و دﻗﯿﻖ ﮐﻞ زﻫﮑﺶ ﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﻧﻘﺎط ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﯽ ﺣﻮﺿﻪ از ﻣﻨﻈﺮ ﮐﻤﯽ و ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﻧﭙﺮداﺧﺘﻪ اﻧﺪ، ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ در اﯾﻦ راﺳﺘﺎ اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪ.
ﻣﻮاد و روش ﻫﺎ: در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ از ﻣﺪل WEAP ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان اﺑﺰاري ﺟﺎﻣﻊ، ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻣﺪل ﺳﺎزي ﮐﻤﯽ و ﮐﯿﻔﯽ زﻫﺎب ﻫﺎ و ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ آن ﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ دﺳﺖ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. اﺑﺘﺪا ﻣﺪل WEAP در ﯾﮏ دوره 5 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ )2012-2016( ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﺛﺒﺖ ﺷﺪه ﺣﻮﺿﻪ واﺳﻨﺠﯽ و اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﺷﺪ. ﺟﻬﺖ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ واﺳﻨﺠﯽ و اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﻣﺪل ﮐﻤﯽ از ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي آﻣﺎري ﺟﺬر ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎت ﺧﻄﺎ
2
)RMSE(، ﻣﺠﺬور ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ )𝑅 ( و آﻣﺎره ﻧﺶ )NASH( اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﻣﺪل ﺑﺮاي ﯾﮏ دوره ﺷﺒﯿﻪ ﺳﺎزي 60 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ )2017 اﻟﯽ 2077( ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ ﮐﻨﺘﺮل زﻫﺎب ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﺎ ازﻧﻈﺮ ﮐﻤﯽ و ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻫﺮ زﻫﮑﺶ ﺑﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ اي ﺣﻮﺿﻪ اﺟﺮا ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎ: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﺪل ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺷﻮري در ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﺑﺎ 3/6 دﺳﯽ زﯾﻤﻨﺲ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺘﺮ ﺑﻮده ﮐﻪ در ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ، ﺗﻨﻬﺎ در ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ اﻧﺘﻘﺎل زﻫﮑﺶ ﻣﻄﺒﮓ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ 34 درﺻﺪي ﺷﻮري )1/2 دﺳﯽ زﯾﻤﻨﺲ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺘﺮ( ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﻣﯽ ﮔﺮدد. اﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﺷﻮري آن ﻫﻢ در اﻧﺘﻬﺎي رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺟﺮاﺣﯽ و اﺑﺘﺪاي ورودي ﺑﻪ ﺗﺎﻻب ﺷﺎدﮔﺎن ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﻣﻬﻢ ﺑﻮده و ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺰاﯾﯽ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ داﺷﺖ. ﺿﻤﻨﺎً ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ اﻋﺘﻤﺎدﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻧﯿﺎز ﮔﺮه زﯾﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺟﺮاﺣﯽ، اﺧﺘﻼف ﺑﯿﻦ اﻋﺘﻤﺎدﭘﺬﯾﺮي در دو ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﻣﺮﺟﻊ و اﻧﺘﻘﺎل زﻫﮑﺶ ﻣﻄﺒﮓ ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﺑﺎ 0/4 درﺻﺪ ﺑﻮده ﮐﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻧﺎﭼﯿﺰ زﻫﮑﺶ ﻣﻄﺒﮓ ﺑﺮ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺟﺮاﺣﯽ را ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ و ﻫﻢ ﭼﻨﯿﻦ اﻋﺘﻤﺎدﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮔﯿﺮي: ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﺪل ﺳﺎزي ﮐﻤﯽ و ﮐﯿﻔﯽ در ﺣﻮﺿﻪ ﻣﺎرون- ﺟﺮاﺣﯽ، ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي اﻧﺘﻘﺎل زﻫﮑﺶ ﻣﻄﺒﮓ )زﻫﮑﺶ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﭼﭗ راﻣﺸﯿﺮ( از ﻧﻈﺮ ﮐﯿﻔﯽ، ﺑﯿﺶ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ را ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ دارد. در ﺻﻮرت اﻧﺘﻘﺎل اﯾﻦ زﻫﮑﺶ، ﻣﯿﺰان ﺷﻮري در اﻧﺘﻬﺎي ﺣﻮﺿﻪ در دوره ﺷﺒﯿﻪ ﺳﺎزي 1/2 دﺳﯽ زﯾﻤﻨﺲ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺘﺮ )34 درﺻﺪ( ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ
چكيده لاتين :
Background and purpose: Development of agricultural lands, the occurrence of droughts, and climate change have made the Maroon-Jarahi basin to become one of the most stressful basins both quantitatively and qualitatively. Due to the existence of numerous irrigation and drainage networks in this basin, it is very important to investigate the effect of returned drainages on the river. Due to having suitable water potential, the study basin has always been suitable for the development of irrigation and drainage networks, also Shadegan Wetland at the end of the basin has increased the importance of quantitative and qualitative water resources management. Therefore, in this study, the effect of drainage from irrigation and drainage networks and traditional agriculture on the quantity and quality of rivers, and more importantly, the endpoint of the Jarahi River and the entrance to Shadegan wetland was investigated. Quantitative and qualitative simulation of the basin for a period of 60-year was performed by the WEAP model. Considering that none of the studies conducted in the Maroon-Jarahi basin has comprehensively and accurately examined all agricultural drains and critical points of the basin from a quantitative and qualitative perspective, so the study was conducted in this regard.
Materials and methods: In this study, the WEAP model was used as a comprehensive tool for quantitative and qualitative Modeling and their effect on downstream. First, the WEAP model was calibrated and validated in a period of 5-year (2012-2016) using the observed data. In order to evaluate the results of calibration and validation of the quantitative model, the statistical indices of root mean square error (RMSE), squared correlation coefficient (R2), and NASH model efficiency coefficient were used. The model was implemented for a 60-year simulation period (2017 to 2077) under the control management scenarios of network drainage in terms of quantity and quality to determine the effect of each drainage on the river system of the basin.
Results: The results of the model showed that the amount of salinity in the reference scenario is 3.6 (dS m-1) which in comparison with other scenarios only in Matbag drainage transmission scenario with a decrease of 34% (1.2 (dS m-1)) salinity compared to the reference scenario. This rate of salinity improvement is very important at the end of the Jarahi River and the entrance of the Shadegan Wetland and will have an excessive effect on the environment. Also, according to the reliability values of the environmental node of the Jarahi River, the difference between the reliability in the two references and the Matbag drainage transmission scenarios is 0.4%, which shows the minor effect of the Matbag drainage on the flow of the Jarahi River and also the reliability of other scenarios is equal to the reference scenario.
Conclusion: According to the results of quantitative and qualitative modeling in the Maroon-Jarahi basin, the Matbag drainage transmission scenario (left drainage network of Ramshir) has the maximum effect in terms of quality compared to other scenarios. If this drain is transferred, the salinity at the end of the basin during the simulation period will decrease by 1.2 (dS m-1) (34%)
