نابرابري تورمي و تأثير واكنش خانوار بر ميزان آن: شواهدي از ايران

Inflation Inequality and Household Response Effect: Evidence from Iran

در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻧﺎﺑﺮاﺑﺮي ﺗﻮرﻣﯽ ﺑﯿﻦ دﻫﮏ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي 1374 ﺗﺎ 1398 ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪﮐﻪ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻬﻢ در اﯾﺠﺎد ﻧﺎﺑﺮاﺑﺮي ﺗﻮرﻣﯽ، ﻣﺘﻔﺎوت ﺑﻮدن اﻟﮕﻮي ﺧﺮﯾﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎ در دﻫﮏ ﻫﺎي درآﻣﺪي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺗﻔﺎوت در واﮐﻨﺶ ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎ در دﻫﮏ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮرم اﺳﺖ. ﻣﺘﻔﺎوت ﺑﻮدن اﻟﮕﻮي ﺧﺮﯾﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎ در دﻫﮏ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺳﺒﺐ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد ﺗﺎ ﺑﻪ ازاي ﻫﺮ واﺣﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﻮرم ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ، ﻣﯿﺰان ﻧﺎﺑﺮاﺑﺮي ﺗﻮرﻣﯽ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﺸﺮ ﺛﺮوﺗﻤﻨﺪ و ﻓﻘﯿﺮ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ، ﺑﻪ اﻧﺪازه 12 درﺻﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﺑﺪ. از ﺳﻮي دﯾﮕﺮ، ﺗﻔﺎوت در ﻗﺪرت ﺧﺮﯾﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎ ﺳﺒﺐ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد ﺗﺎ آﻧﻬﺎ واﮐﻨﺶ ﻣﺘﻔﺎوﺗﯽ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮرم ﺗﺤﻤﯿﻠﯽ ﻧﺸﺎن دﻫﻨﺪ، ﺑﺪﯾﻦ ﺻﻮرت ﮐﻪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻟﮕﻮي ﻣﺼﺮف ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎي ﺛﺮوﺗﻤﻨﺪ ﺳﺒﺐ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد اﺛﺮ ﺗﻮرم ﺗﺤﻤﯿﻠﯽ ﺑﺮ آﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان 5 درﺻﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﺑﺪ، وﻟﯽ اﺟﺒﺎر ﺑﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺳﻬﻢ ﮐﺎﻻﻫﺎي ﺿﺮوري ﺟﻬﺖ ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎي ﻓﻘﯿﺮ، ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﻮرم ﺗﺤﻤﯿﻠﯽ ﺑﻪ آن ﻫﺎ را ﺗﺎ 4% اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ، ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮري ﮐﻪ در ازاي ﻫﺮ واﺣﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﻮرم ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ، ﻣﯿﺰان ﻧﺎﺑﺮاﺑﺮي ﺗﻮرﻣﯽ اﺣﺴﺎس ﺷﺪه ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺗﺎ 20 درﺻﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﺑﺪ، ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎرت دﯾﮕﺮ واﮐﻨﺶ ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮرم ﺳﺒﺐ رﺷﺪ 66 درﺻﺪي ﻧﺎﺑﺮاﺑﺮي ﺗﻮرﻣﯽ ﺑﻪ ازاي ﻫﺮ واﺣﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﻮرم ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد.

In this paper, I study the inflation inequality across different income deciles of the Iranian economy for the years 1374-1398. The results show that the different pattern of household purchases in different income deciles and the difference in their response to inflation is an important factor in creating inflation inequality. The heterogeneity in household purchases causes the rate of inflation inequality between the rich and the poor to increase by 12 percent per unit of average inflation. High-income households by changing their consumption baskets are able to reduce the adverse effects of inflation by 5%. On the other hand, low-income families face higher inflation rates by up to 4% because of an increase in their consumption of essential goods. As a result, for every unit of average inflation increase, the rate of inflation inequality felt by households increases by up to 20% compared to the previous case. In other words, the response of households to inflation causes a 66% increase in inflation inequality per unit of average inflation. Also, the evidence suggests that the difference in the inflation across provinces causes, firstly, the rate of inflation inequality per unit increase in average inflation to increase significantly compared to the case where provincial heterogeneity was not considered; Second, inflation inequality is observed within each decile.