بررسي تأثير عوامل اقتصادي و اجتماعي بر مصرف خانوارهاي روستايي و شهري

Investigating the effect of economic and social factors on household consumption

ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﯽ ﺧﺎﻧﻮار در اﯾﺮان ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﺎﺗﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ از ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ و اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑـﻪ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﺗﺨﺼﯿﺺ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺤﺪود ﮐﺸﻮر و ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺘﯽ اﻟﮕﻮي ﻣﺼﺮف ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﻮر ﺳﺒﺐ ﺷﺪه ﺗﺎ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﻣﺼﺮف و ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣـﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ آن از اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﺑﺎﻻﯾﯽ ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻫﺪف اﺻﻠﯽ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ، ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ و ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗـﺄ ﺛﯿﺮات ﻋﻮاﻣـﻞ اﻗﺘﺼـﺎد ي ﺑـﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿـ ﺮات ﻣﺼﺮف ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎي روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ و ﺷﻬﺮي ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻧﯿﻞ ﺑﻪ اﻫﺪاف اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ از روش ﭘﺎﻧﻞ دﯾﺘﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺗﮑﯿﻪ ﺑـﺮ اﻃﻼﻋـﺎت درآﻣـﺪ و ﻫﺰﯾﻨـﻪ و ﻣﺼﺮف ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﻃﯽ دوره 1395- 1385 اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺑﯿﮑﺎري و ﺗﺤﺼﯿﻼت راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﻌﮑﻮس ﺑـ ﺎ ﻣﺼـﺮف ﺧـﺎﻧﻮار دارﻧﺪ ﺑﻄﻮريﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﮏ درﺻﺪ در اﯾﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ، ﻣﺼﺮف ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان 5/36 و 9/57 درﺻـﺪ ﮐـﺎﻫﺶ ﻣـ ﯽﯾﺎﺑـﺪ . ﻫﻤﭽﻨـ ﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫـ ﺎي ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ، درآﻣﺪ و ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ ﮐﻞ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺼﺮف ﺧﺎﻧﻮار راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ دارﻧﺪ ﺑﻄﻮريﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﮏ درﺻﺪ در اﯾﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ، ﻣﯿﺰان ﻣﺼﺮف ﺑـﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿـ ﺐ ﺑـﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان 8/6 ، 0/06 و 0/05 درﺻﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﻣﯽﺷﻮد ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬاريﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺗﻮﺳـﻂ دوﻟـﺖ در ﺟﻬﺖ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ اﺷﺘﻐﺎل و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ درآﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎ ﺻﻮرت ﭘﺬﯾﺮد.

Changing the pattern of household consumption in Iran is one of the most important issues influencing social and economic changes. Considering the issue of allocation of limited resources of the country and the management of demographic patterns of household consumption patterns, it is important to study the changes in the pattern of consumption and the factors affecting it. The main purpose of this paper is to study the effects of population dynamics and the impact of economic factors on the patterns of rural and urban consumption patterns. In order to achieve the objectives of this paper, panel data has been used with income data and household expenses during the period of 1385-1395. The results of this study showed that the variables of unemployment and education have an inverse relationship with household consumption so that with a one percent increase in these variables, household consumption decreases by 5.36 and 9.57 percent. Also, the variables of population, income and total expenditure have a positive relationship with household consumption, so that with an increase of one percent in these variables, the amount of consumption increases by 8.6, 0.06 and 0.05 percent, respectively. According to the obtained results, it is suggested that appropriate policies be taken by the government to increase employment and increase household income.