پديد آورندگان :
اﻣﯿﺮﻧﮋاد، ﺣﻤﯿﺪ داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﻋﻠﻮم ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺳﺎري - ﮔﺮوه اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي , ﺣﺴﯿﻨﯽ ﯾﮑﺎﻧﯽ، ﻋﻠﯽ داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﻋﻠﻮم ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺳﺎري - ﮔﺮوه اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي , ﻣﺠﺎورﯾﺎن، ﻣﺠﺘﺒﯽ داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﻋﻠﻮم ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺳﺎري - ﮔﺮوه اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي , ﮐﺸﯿﺮي ﮐﻼﺋﯽ، ﻓﺎﻃﻤﻪ داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﻋﻠﻮم ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺳﺎري - ﮔﺮوه اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي , ﺗﺴﻠﯿﻤﯽ، ﻣﻬﺴﺎ داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﻋﻠﻮم ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺳﺎري - ﮔﺮوه اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي
كليدواژه :
اﺷﺘﻐﺎل , ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزي , ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ , داﻣﺪاري , ﻣﺎزﻧﺪران , QSPM
چكيده فارسي :
ﻘﺪﻣﻪ و ﻫﺪف: ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ داﻣﺪاري در اﺳﺘﺎن ﻣﺎزﻧﺪران داراي ﺳﻬﻢ ﻗﺎﺑﻞﺗﻮﺟﻬﯽ در اﺷﺘﻐﺎل و ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت واﺑﺴﺘﻪ در ﮐﺸﻮر اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻪﻣﻨﻈـﻮر ﺗﺤﻘـﻖ ﺗﻮﺳـﻌﻪ ي
اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي، ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎ و ﭘﺘﺎﻧﺴﯿﻞﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺶروي اﯾﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ، از ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺑﻪﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﯽرﺳﻨﺪ. ﻫﺪف از اﻧﺠﺎم اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ، ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ، ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖﻫﺎ و ﻧﻬﺎدﻫﺎي اﺳﺘﺎن ﻣﺎزﻧﺪران ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي در ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﻘﻮﯾﺖ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ و اﺷﺘﻐﺎل و ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻦ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮاي اﻓـﺰ اﯾﺶ اﺷـﺘﻐﺎل و ﺗﻮﻟﯿـ ﺪ زﯾـ ﺮﺑﺨﺶ داﻣـﺪار ي در
اﺳﺘﺎن ﻣﺎزﻧﺪران ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻣﻮاد و روشﻫﺎ: ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ ﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت داﻣﯽ در اﺳﺘﺎن ﻣﺎزﻧﺪران، در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﯾﮏ ﻧﻮع ﺗﺤﻠﯿـﻞ SWOT ﻣﺒﺘﻨـﯽ ﺑـﺮ رﻫﯿﺎﻓـﺖ AHP، ﻣﺸﮑﻼت و ﻓﺮﺻﺖﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﺟﻮد در زﯾﺮﺑﺨﺶ داﻣﺪاري در اﺳﺘﺎن ﻣﺎزﻧﺪران ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ و ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﺑﺮاي اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴـﺎت زوﺟـ ﯽ ﻋﻮاﻣـﻞ داﺧﻠﯽ و ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ، ﺑﺎ 15 ﮐﺎرﺷﻨﺎس ﺑﺎﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ زﯾﺮﺑﺨﺶ داﻣﺪاري ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن و ادارات ﺟﻬﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي اﺳـﺘﺎن ﻣﺎزﻧـﺪران در ﺳـﺎل 1397 ﻣﺼـﺎﺣﺒﻪ ﺷـﺪ . در ﻧﻬﺎﯾـ ﺖ، ﺑـﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از رﻫﯿﺎﻓﺖ ﻣﺎﺗﺮﯾﺲ ﮐﻤﯽ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي راﻫﺒﺮدي )QSPM(، ﺑﻪ اوﻟﻮﯾﺖﺑﻨﺪي راﻫﺒﺮدﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اﯾﻦ زﯾﺮﺑﺨﺶ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ. ﺑـﺮ اي ﺗﺨﻤـ ﯿﻦ ﻧﺘـﺎ ﯾﺞ از
ﻧﺮماﻓﺰارﻫﺎي Excel و GAMS اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ.
ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ SWOT در ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ داﺧﻠﯽ و ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ ﻣﺒﯿﻦ آن ﺑﻮد ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪي زﯾﺮﺑﺨﺶ داﻣﺪاري در اﺳﺘﺎن ﻣﺎزﻧﺪران، اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋيﻫﺎي ﺗﻬﺎﺟﻤﯽ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻣﻔﯿﺪ واﻗﻊ ﺷﻮد. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ، ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اوﻟﻮﯾﺖﺑﻨﺪي راﻫﺒﺮدﻫﺎ از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ رﻫﯿﺎﻓﺖ QSPM ﻧﯿﺰ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋيﻫﺎي ﺗﻬﺎﺟﻤﯽ در زﯾﺮﺑﺨﺶ داﻣﺪاري، »ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺻﺎدرات و ورود ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎي ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ«، »ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻣﺤﺼﻮل و ﺑﺎزار«، »اﯾﺠﺎد ﺗﺴﻬﯿﻼت و اﻣﮑﺎﻧﺎت ﺑﺮاي ﺻﺎدرات ﺑﻪ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﺣﺎﺷﯿﻪ درﯾﺎي ﺧﺰر« و »اﺻﻼح ﻧﮋادﻫﺎي دام در ﺟﻬﺖ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ« ﺑﻪﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﺎ اﻣﺘﯿﺎزﻫﺎي 5/442 ،6/147 ،6/467 و 4/947، ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان راﻫﺒﺮدﻫﺎﯾﯽ در ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ و اﺷﺘﻐﺎل در زﯾﺮﺑﺨﺶ داﻣﺪاري اﺳﺘﺎن ﻣﺎزﻧﺪران ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﻧﻈﺮ ﻗﺮار ﮔﯿﺮﻧﺪ..
ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮي: ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﻤﺮهي ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ داﺧﻠﯽ و ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ در ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ SWOT، راﻫﺒﺮد ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ در ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ داﻣﺪاري اﺳﺘﺎن ﻣﺎزﻧﺪران، راﻫﺒﺮد ﺗﻬﺎﺟﻤﯽ SO ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ، راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﻫﻤﭽﻮن ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ و ارﺗﻘﺎي داﻣﺪاريﻫﺎي ﺳﻨﺘﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻧﯿﻤﻪﺻﻨﻌﺘﯽ و ﺻﻨﻌﺘﯽ، ﮐﺎﻫﺶ دﻻﻟﯽ و واﺳﻄﻪﮔﺮيﻫﺎ و ﺗﻨﻈﯿﻢ ﺑﺎزار ﺑﺎ ﮔﺮدآوري آﻣﺎر و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ اﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﯽ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ، اﺻﻼح ﻧﮋادﻫﺎي دام، ﺣﻤﺎﯾﺖ از ﺻﺎدرات ﺑﻪوﯾﮋه ﺻﺎدرات ﺑﻪ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﺣﺎﺷﯿﻪ درﯾﺎي ﺧﺰر، ارﺗﻘﺎء ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ و اﺳﺘﺎﻧﺪارد ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪات ﻓﺮآوري ﺷﺪه ﺑﻪﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻓﺮوش در ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪاي و ﻓﺮاﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪاي، ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ ﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎي ﻫﺪف و ﻣﻮاردي از اﯾﻦ ﻗﺒﯿﻞ ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﻣﯽﺷﻮد.
چكيده لاتين :
Introduction and Objective: Livestock activity in Mazandaran province has a significant share
in employment and production of related products in the country. To achieve economic
development, identifying the challenges and potentials for progress in this sector are important
factors. The purpose of this study is to analyze the resources, activities and institutions of
Mazandaran province with an economic approach to strengthen production and employment and
find a suitable strategy to increase the employment and production of livestock in Mazandaran
province.
Material and Methods: in this study, by considering the production capabilities of livestock
products in Mazandaran province, and using a SWOT analysis based on the AHP approach, the
problems, and opportunities in the livestock sub-sector in Mazandaran province were identified
and examined. To extract pairwise comparisons of internal and external factors, 15 experienced
experts in the livestock subdivision of the Agricultural Jihad Organization and Departments of
Mazandaran Province were interviewed in 2018. Finally, using the Quantitative Strategic
Planning Matrix (QSPM) approach, strategies for developing this subsector were prioritized.
Excel and GAMS software were used to estimate the results.
Results: The results of SWOT analysis in the analysis of internal and external factors showed
that to develop the livestock sub-sector in Mazandaran province, aggressive strategies can be
useful. Also, the results of prioritizing strategies through the QSPM approach showed that
according to the aggressive strategies in the livestock sub-sector, "export development and entry
into global markets", "product and market development", " Creating facilities for the export of
Caspian Sea littoral states " and " Modified breeds of livestock to increase production " with
scores of 6.467, 6.147, 5.442 and 4.947, respectively, can be considered as strategies for
developing production and employment in the livestock sub-sector of Mazandaran province .
Conclusion: According to the results of internal and external factors in SWOT analysis, the
optimal strategy in livestock activity in Mazandaran province is the aggressive strategy of SO.
According to the results of this study, strategies such as development and promotion of
traditional livestock to semi-industrial and industrial, reducing mediation and intermediation
and regulating market by collecting accurate statistics and information sources, Modifying
breeds of livestock, supporting exports especially exports to Caspian Sea littoral states,
improving the quality and standard of processed products for sale in regional and trans-regional
markets, recognizing the needs of target markets and Such cases are suggested.
