پديد آورندگان :
دادرس مقدم، امير دانشگاه سيستان و بلوچستان - گروه اقتصاد و مديريت , حسيني، مهدي دانشگاه سيستان و بلوچستان - گروه اقتصاد و مديريت , حميديان پور، محسن دانشگاه سيستان و بلوچستان - گروه جغرافيا طبيعي- اقليم شناسي , سياحي، مهسا فاقد وابستگي
كليدواژه :
توريسم , اقليم , اقتصاد , DOLS , GMM
چكيده فارسي :
ﻨﻌﺖ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي ﯾﮑﯽ از ﺑﺰرگﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺻﻨﺎﯾﻊ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺗﯽ و از ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖﻫﺎي اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي در ﺟﻬﺎن ﺑﻪ ﺷﻤﺎر ﻣﯽرود. ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت زﯾﺎدي در راﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه ﮐﻪ اﻏﻠﺐ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ و اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﻣﺠﺰا ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ. ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎن ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ و اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺮ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﯾﺮان ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از دادهﻫﺎي ﭘﺎﻧﻞ در ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 1385 ﺗﺎ 1397 اﺳﺖ.ﮐﺸﻮر اﯾﺮان ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻃﺒﻘﻪﺑﻨﺪي اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺑﻪ 8 ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ دﺳﺘﻪﺑﻨﺪي ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ در ﺻﻮرت ﻋﺪم ﻫﻢاﻧﺒﺎﺷﺘﮕﯽ دادهﻫﺎ از روش GLS اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه و در ﺻﻮرت وﺟﻮد ﻫﻢاﻧﺒﺎﺷﺘﮕﯽ دادهﻫﺎ ﺑﺮاي ﻫﺮ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ از روشﻫﺎي DOLS ﯾﺎ GMM اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ در ﺑﺴﯿﺎري از اﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ در ﮐﻨﺎر ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي اﺛﺮ ﻣﻌﻨﯽداري ﺑﺮ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي دارﻧﺪ. در واﻗﻊ در ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ اﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﮐﻪ ارزش اﻓﺰوده اﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎ ﻣﻌﻨﯽدار ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ارزش اﻓﺰوده ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﻌﺪاد ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮان در ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ دﻣﺎ ﺗﻌﺪاد ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮان در اﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎي ﺧﺮاﺳﺎن رﺿﻮي، ﺧﺮاﺳﺎن ﺟﻨﻮﺑﯽ، ﺗﻬﺮان، ﺳﻤﻨﺎن، اﺻﻔﻬﺎن، ﮐﺮﻣﺎن و ﻣﺮﮐﺰي (اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﮐﻮﻫﭙﺎﯾﻪﻫﺎي ﺷﺮﻗﯽ) اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺑﺎ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ اﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎي ﻓﺎرس، اﯾﻠﺎم، ﻟﺮﺳﺘﺎن، ﮐﻬﮑﯿﻠﻮﯾﻪ و ﺑﻮﯾﺮاﺣﻤﺪ، ﺧﺮاﺳﺎن رﺿﻮي، ﺧﺮاﺳﺎن ﺟﻨﻮﺑﯽ، ﺗﻬﺮان، ﺳﻤﻨﺎن، اﺻﻔﻬﺎن، ﮐﺮﻣﺎن و ﻣﺮﮐﺰي)اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﮐﻮﻫﭙﺎﯾﻪﻫﺎي ﺷﺮﻗﯽ و ﻏﺮﺑﯽ( ﺗﻌﺪاد ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮان ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮي را ﭘﺬﯾﺮا ﺧﻮاﻫﻨﺪ ﺑﻮد. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﮔﻔﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎﯾﺴﺘﯽ در ﻫﻨﮕﺎم ﺟﺬب ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮ ﻋﻠﺎوه ﺑﺮ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﻪ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ داﺷﺘﻪ و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺳﻔﺮ را ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪاي ﺗﻨﻈﯿﻢ ﻧﻤﻮد ﮐﻪ در زﻣﺎن ﺳﻔﺮ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﮐﻤﺘﺮ و دﻣﺎ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده را از زﻣﺎن ﺳﻔﺮ ﮐﺴﺐ ﻧﻤﻮد و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﻣﯽﺷﻮد در ﻓﺼﻮل ﮔﺮم ﮐﻪ دﻣﺎ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ و ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﮐﻤﺘﺮ اﺳﺖ اﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎي ﺧﺮاﺳﺎن رﺿﻮي، ﺧﺮاﺳﺎن ﺟﻨﻮﺑﯽ، ﺗﻬﺮان، ﺳﻤﻨﺎن، اﺻﻔﻬﺎن، ﮐﺮﻣﺎن و ﻣﺮﮐﺰي(اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﮐﻮﻫﭙﺎﯾﻪﻫﺎي ﺷﺮﻗﯽ) ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي در ﮐﺸﻮر اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﺷﻮد.
چكيده لاتين :
The tourism industry is one of the largest service industries and one of the most important economic activities in the world. There are many studies on this subject, most of which have studied the climatic and economic factors seperately. In this study, we want to examine the simultaneous effects of economic and climatic factors on tourism. In this regard, panel data was collected for 30 provinces of Iran during the years 2006 to 2018. These provinces were classified in seven regions and each region is individually examined. Given the cointegration analysis results, we were using panel data or DOLS or GMM procedures, for each region. In general, according to the results, in many provinces, climate variables have a significant effect on tourism along with economic variables. In fact, in all provinces where provincial value added has been significant, value added leads to an increase in the number of tourists in the long run. Results for climate variables show that with increasing temperature, the number of tourists in provinces of Khorasan Razavi, South Khorasan, Tehran, Semnan, Isfahan, Kerman, Markazi, Sistan and Baluchestan, Yazd, Qom, Bushehr, Hormozgan, Khuzestan provinces increases. The increase in raining in the autumn and winter seasons in the provinces of Mazandaran and Gilan are among the provinces with the highest number of tourists and Fars, Ilam, Lorestan, Kohkiloyehr and Boyer Ahmad provinces will have fewer tourists in these seasons.
