شبيه سازي آثار اقتصادي و رفاهي سناريو هاي نحوه سرمايه گذاري درآمد هاي نفتي در اقتصاد ايران، رهيافت الگوي تعادل عمومي محاسبه پذير پوياي بازگشتي

Economic and Welfare Effects of investing Oil Revenue in the Iranian Economy: A Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) Approach

تحقيق حاضر با هدف شبيه‌سازي آثار اقتصادي و رفاهي تخصيص درآمدهاي نفتي در اقتصاد ايران انجام شده است. براي دستيابي به اين هدف از رهيافت الگوي تعادل عمومي محاسبه‌پذير بازگشتي، با استفاده از ماتريس حسابداري اجتماعي سال 1390، بهره گرفته شده است. در اين ميان تغييرات در شاخص توليد بخش‌هاي مختلف اقتصادي، تغييرات مصرف و سطح قيمت‌ها، در قالب 4 سناريوي مختلف ذخيره درآمدهاي نفتي در صندوق ذخاير ارزي و يا سرمايه‌گذاري براي دوره 1400-1390 مورد بررسي قرار گرفته است. نتايج نشان داده در سناريوي ذخيره 20 درصدي از درآمدهاي نفتي در صندوق ارزي كشور، اگر 30 درصد از منابع صندوق در بخش صنعت سرمايه‌گذاري شود به علت وجود ارتباطات قوي بين بخش صنعت و ساير بخش‌ها از جمله بخش كشاورزي و خدمات، بيشترين رشد توليد و مصرف در اين بخش‌ها خواهد بود. به اين ترتيب با سرمايه‌گذاري در بخش صنعت تمام بخش‌هاي اقتصادي از اين موضوع منتفع شده و با افزايش توليد ضمن رشد تقاضاي سرمايه‌گذاري، رفاه بيشتري نصيب مصرف‌كنندگان مي‌گردد.

In the present study, the approach of a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium was used in order to simulate the economic and welfare effects of the allocation of oil revenues in the Iranian economy. Accordingly, changes in the production index of different economic sectors, changes in consumption and price levels in the form of 4 scenarios of different combinations of depositing oil revenues to the National Development Fund of Iran, and using the social accounting matrix (SAM) related to the year 2011 were considered. The results showed that by using different scenarios of oil revenue allocation, the highest growth of production and consumption of the studied sectors compared to the basic scenario of the fourth scenario (save 20% of oil revenues in the country's foreign exchange fund and invest 30% of the fund's resources in the industry) will be. Meanwhile, the highest rate of price reduction in the production sector is related to the fact that 20% of oil revenues are saved in the country's foreign exchange fund and no amount has been invested in the economic sectors. In fact, the increase in production and boom is due to the increase in investment in the industrial sector of inflation and will lead to the growth of prices of manufactured products. Therefore, by allocating the fund's resources in the industrial sector, the goal of economic growth and increasing household welfare will be achieved. In fact, due to the strong links between the industrial sector and other sectors, including agriculture and services, by investing to improve the productivity of the industrial sector, all economic sectors have benefited from this issue and by increasing production while growing demand for investment and increasing household consumption will bring greater welfare to consumers.