واكاوي چرخش جديد سياست خارجي تركيه در قبال خاورميانه

An analysis of the new turn of Turkish foreign policy towards the Middle East

ﺑﺎ ﺟﻠﻮس ﺣﺰب ﻋﺪاﻟﺖ و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺗﺮﮐﯿﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻨﺪﻟﯽ ﻗﺪرت در ﺳﺎل 2002، ﻻﺟﺮم ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ اﯾﻦ ﮐﺸﻮر ﻫﻢ ﮔﺎم در ﻣﺴﯿﺮ ﻧﻮﯾﯽ ﮔﺬاﺷﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺮ دو دﮐﺘﺮﯾﻦ »ﺗﻨﺶ ﺻﻔﺮ ﺑﺎ ﻫﻤﺴﺎﯾﮕﺎن« و »ﻋﻤﻖ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋﯾﮏ« اﺳﺘﻮار ﺑﻮد. اﻣﺎ از ﺳﺎل 2012و ﻫﻤﮕﺎم ﺑﺎ ﻗﯿﺎم ﻫﺎي ﻣﺮدﻣﯽ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ و ﺟﻬﺎن اﺳﻼم، ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎورﻣﯿﺎﻧﻪ اي ﺗﺮﮐﯿﻪ از روﯾﮑﺮد ﭘﯿﺸﯿﻦ ﻋﺪول ﮐﺮد و ﺑ ﺎ ﻣﻮﻟﻔﻪ ﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ درك ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪات، رﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻗﺪرت ﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ اي، اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﯿﺮوي ﻧﻈﺎﻣﯽ و اﺗﺨﺎذ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﯾﮏ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﻪ ﮔﺮاﯾﯽ ، ﻫﻤﺮاه ﺷﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﻧﻮ، ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻤﺮﮐﺰ ﺷﺪﯾﺪ ﺑﺮ اﻣﻨﯿﺖ ﻣﻠﯽ، ﺗﻼش ﺑﺮاي اﺳﺘﻘﻼل اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋﯾﮏ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ و ﻧﻈﺎﻣﯽﺷﺪن ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در ﺑﺎب اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻮل، ﺑﺮﺧﯽ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ روﯾﮑﺮد ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻃﻠﺒﯽ ﻧﻮﻋﺜﻤﺎﻧﯽ ﮔﺮي ﺗﺎﮐﯿﺪ ﮐﺮده، ﺑﻌﻀﯽ دﯾﮕﺮ ﺑﯿﺪاري اﺳﻼﻣﯽ و ﺗﺤﻮﻻت ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻗﺐ آن را ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﭼﺮﺧﺶ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ ﺗﺮﮐﯿﻪ ﻣﯽ داﻧﻨﺪ. ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﺎت دﯾﮕﺮ ﺑﺮ ﮐﻮدﺗﺎي ﺳﺎل 2016و رﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﻧﺨﺒﮕﺎن ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان رﯾﺸﻪ ﻫﺎي اﯾﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻣﯽ ﻧﮕﺮﻧﺪ. اﻣﺎ اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ در ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﭘﺮﺳﺶ ﮐﻪ »رﯾﺸﻪ ﻫﺎي ﭼﺮﺧﺶ ﺟﺪﯾﺪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ ﺗﺮﮐﯿﻪ در ﻗﺒﺎل ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺧﺎروﻣﯿﺎﻧﻪ از ﺳﺎل 2012ﺑﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ ﭼﯿﺴﺖ؟«، ﺑﺎ ﮐﺎرﺑﺴﺖ روش ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ -ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ و اﺗﺨﺎذ ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﯿﻮﺳﺘﮕﯽ ﺟﯿﻤﺰ روزﻧﺎ، اﻗﺘﺪارﮔﺮاﯾﯽ اردوﻏﺎن، دﯾﻮان ﺳﺎﻻري ﺣﮑﻮﻣﺘﯽ، ﻣﺤﯿﻂ ﭘﺮﺗﻨﺶ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ، ﺑﺎز ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺗﺮﮐﯿﻪ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ و ﺗﺤﻮل ﻗﺪرت در ﻧﻈﺎم ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻠﻞ را ﭘﻨﺞ ﻣﻮﻟﻔﻪ اﺻﻠﯽ و ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار ﺑﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎورﻣﯿﺎﻧﻪ اي ﺗﺮﮐﯿﻪ ﻣﯽ داﻧﺪ. از ﻣﯿ ﺎن ﻣﻮﻟﻔﻪ ﻫﺎي ﻓﻮق، ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻣﻮازﻧﻪ ﻗﺪرت در ﺳﻄﺢ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻠﻞ و ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺎه ﺷﺨﺺ اردوﻏﺎن در ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﻗﺪرت، ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ را ﺑﺮ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎورﻣﯿﺎﻧﻪ اي ﺗﺮﮐﯿﻪ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. اﺑﺰار ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ، ﮐﺘﺐ و ﻣﻘﺎﻻت ﻣﻌﺘﺒﺮ و دﺳﺘﻪ اوﻟﯽ ﺑﻮده ﮐﻪ از ﮐﺘﺎﺑﺨﺎﻧﻪ و وب ﺳﺎﯾﺖ ﻫﺎي اﯾﻨﺘﺮﻧﺘﯽ ﺗﻬﯿﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ.

With the rise of the AKP to power in 2002, the country's foreign policy inevitably embarked on a new path based on the two doctrines of "zero tension with neighbors" and "strategic depth." But since 2012, in line with popular uprisings in the region and the Muslim world, Turkey has gradually shifted away from its former foreign policy in the Middle East, increasing its understanding of threats, competing with other regional powers, increasing its use of force, risky behavior, and Prioritizing the policy of unilateralism has been accompanied. This new approach has led to a strong focus on national security, efforts for greater strategic independence, and the militarization of foreign policy. Regarding this development, some researches have emphasized the expansionist approach of neo-Ottomanism, while others consider the Islamic Awakening and the subsequent developments as the cause of the turn of Turkey's foreign policy. Other research looks at the 2016 coup and the rivalry of political elites as the root of this change. The tense environment of society considers the redefinition of Turkey's role in the region and the transformation of power in the international system as the five main and influential components in changing the foreign policy of this country towards the Middle East region. Among the above components, the change in the balance of power at the international and regional levels and the increasing position of Erdoğan himself in the power structure have had the greatest impact on Turkey's Middle East policy.