نقش تعديل كننده درآمدهاي نفتي بر رابطه درآمدهاي مالياتي و رشد اقتصادي

The moderating role of oil revenues on the relationship between tax revenues and economic growth

در ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﺗﺌﻮريﻫﺎي اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻣﺘﻌﺎرف، ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎت اﺻﻠﯽ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺒﻊ درآﻣﺪ دوﻟﺖ ﻫﺎ اﺳﺖ. ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎت ﻫﺎ از اﺑﺰارﻫﺎي ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫـﺎي ﻣـﺎﻟﯽ دوﻟـﺖ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﮐﻪ از ﻣﻬﻢ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ارﮐﺎن ﻫﺮ ﻧﻈﺎم ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺗﻠﻘﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ. در ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﺻﺎدر ﮐﻨﻨﺪه ﻧﻔﺖ، ﻓـﺮوش ﻧﻔـﺖ ﻋﻤﺪه ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺒﻊ درآﻣﺪي دوﻟﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺴﺎب ﻣـﯽ آﯾﺪ. ﺑﻪ دﻻﯾﻞ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ازﺟﻤﻠﻪ، ﻧﻮﺳـﺎن ﻫـﺎي ﻗﯿﻤﺘﯽ ﻧﻔﺖ و از دﺳﺖ رﻓﺘﻦ ﯾﮏ ذﺧﯿﺮه ﻣﻠﯽ ﺑﺎارزش، اﯾﻦ روش ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺄﯾﯿﺪ ﻧﯿﺴـﺖ و اﯾﻦ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎﺗﯽ اﯾﻦ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫـﺎ ا ﺻﻼح ﮔﺮدد ﺗﺎ ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺰﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻣﺨﺎرج دوﻟﺖ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ، اﺟﺘﻨﺎب ﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﯽ رﺳﺪ. ﻫﺪف اﺻﻠﯽ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﻧﻮاع درآﻣﺪﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﺑﺮ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي در ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺣﻀﻮر و ﻋﺪم ﺣﻀﻮر درآﻣـﺪﻫﺎي ﻧﻔﺘـﯽ اﺳـﺖ. ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌـﻪ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑـﺮ اﺳﺎس روش ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮدي اﺳﺖ. ﺟﻬﺖ ﺑﺮآورد ﻣﺪل از داده ﻫﺎي ﺑﺎزه زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 1399-1388 اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳـﺖ. ر ﺑﺮآورد در ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ روش ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎت ﺟﺰﺋﯽ اﺳﺖ. ﺗﺨﻤﯿﻦ ﻣـﺪل در ﻓﻀـﺎي ﻧـﺮم اﻓـﺰار Smart PLS ﺻـﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ اﯾﻦ واﻗﻌﯿﺖ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ در ﺻﻮرت ﻋﺪم ﺣﻀﻮر ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ درآﻣـﺪﻫﺎي ﻧﻔﺘـﯽ در ﻣـﺪل ، ﻣﺘﻐﯿـﺮ درآﻣﺪ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎت ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ارزش اﻓﺰوده ﺑﯿﺶ از ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎت ﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻣﺆﺛﺮ اﺳـﺖ و ﺑـﺎ ورود ﻣﺘﻐﯿـﺮ درآﻣـﺪﻫﺎي ﻧﻔﺘﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪل اﺛﺮات ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ اﻧﻮاع ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎت ﺑـﺮ رﺷـﺪ اﻗﺘﺼـﺎدي ﮐـﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘـﻪ و اﯾـﻦ ﮐـﺎﻫﺶ در ﻣﺎﻟﯿـﺎت ﺑـﺮ ارزش اﻓـﺰود محسوس ﺗﺮ از ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎت ﻫﺎ اﺳﺖ.

In terms of economic theory tax is important main the Government income. . Taxes are one of the instruments of government financial institutions that are considered to be the most important pillars of any financial system. In oil-exporting countries, oil sales are the governmentchr('39')s main source of revenue. Due to various reasons, such as oil price fluctuations and the loss of a valuable national reserve, this method is not tolerable and the issue that the tax system of these countries should be corrected to be a suitable alternative to cover government expenditures seems inevitable. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of various types of tax revenues on economic growth in the presence and absence of oil revenues. The present study is based on applied research method. To estimate the model, data from the period of 1395-1384 have been used. The present research model is the partial least squares method. Model estimation has been done in Smart PLS software space. The research results indicate the fact that with the inclusion of oil revenues in the model, the impact of tax revenues on economic growth has decreased and the role of taxes in creating economic growth and development has decreased. The moderating effect of oil revenues is -0.07 percent, which reduces economic growth by reducing tax revenues