بررسي عليت متقابل تغيير اقليم و مصرف انرژي در بخش هاي اصلي اقتصاد ايران با روش تودا- ياماماتو

Investigating the Causality of Climate Change and Energy Consumption in the Main Sectors of the Iranian Economy by Toda-Yamamato Method

اﮐﻮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﯾﮑﯽ از ارﮐﺎن ﺑﻨﯿﺎدﯾﻦ زﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﺑﺸﺮ ﻣﺤﺴﻮب ﻣﯽﺷﻮدﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﭘﯿﺸﺮﻓﺖ و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ در ﺟﻬﺎن ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮاﺗﯽ در آن ﺑﻪ وﺟﻮد آﻣﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﭘﺪﯾﺪة ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﮐﻪ ﻋﻤﺪﺗﺎ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ آﻻﯾﻨﺪهﻫﺎي ﻫﻮا در ﺟﻮ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ، از ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﻫﺎي ﺑـﺎرز در اﯾﻦ زﻣﯿﻨﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﻋﺒﺎرت اﺳﺖ از ﻫﺮ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات در ﻣﺆﻟﻔﻪﻫﺎي اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ از ﻗﺒﯿﻞ دﻣﺎ، ﺑﺎرش و ﺑـﺎد ﮐـﻪ در ﻃﻮل ﭼﻨﺪﯾﻦ دﻫﻪ اﺗﻔﺎق ﻣﯽاﻓﺘﺪ. ﻣﺼﺮف ﺣﺎﻣﻞﻫﺎي اﻧﺮژي ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﺻﻠﯽ اﻧﺘﺸﺎر آﻻﯾﻨﺪهﻫـﺎي ﻫـﻮا ﺑـﻮده و از اﯾـﻦ ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ اﺛﺮ ﻣﯽﮔﺬارد؛ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪﻫﺎﯾﯽ را ﺑﺮ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد دارد ﮐﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي از ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﻫﺎي آن اﺳﺖ. از آﻧﺠﺎﯾﯽﮐﻪ ﮐﺸﻮر اﯾﺮان در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ در ﻣﻌﺮض ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺷﺪﯾﺪ اﻗﻠﯿﻤـﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ و ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي در ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي آن رو ﺑﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﮔﺬاﺷﺘﻪ و ﯾﮑﯽ از ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻣﻬﻢ در زﻣﯿﻨﻪ اﻧﺘﺸﺎر آﻻﯾﻨﺪهﻫﺎي ﻫﻮاﺳﺖ، ﻟﺬا در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻋﻠﯿﺖ اﺛﺮات ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ و ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧـﺮژي در ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﺑﺪﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر از دادهﻫﺎي دﻣﺎ و ﺑﺎرش و ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي 28 اﺳـﺘﺎن ﺑﺮاي دورة زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 1370-1395 اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻋﻠﯿﺖ دو ﻃﺮﻓﻪ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ و ﻣﺼـﺮف اﻧـﺮژي ﮐﻞ در ﻃﻮل دورة زﻣﺎﻧﯽ از روش ﻋﻠﯿﺖ ﺗﻮدا-ﯾﺎﻣﺎﻣﻮﺗﻮ ﮐﻪ ﯾﮏ var ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻋﻠﯿﺖ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ و اﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﻮر در ﻃﻮل دورة زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﻣﺬﮐﻮر از روش ﻋﻠﯿﺖ ﮔﺮﻧﺠﺮ اﺳـﺘﻔﺎده ﮔﺮدﯾﺪهاﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺨﻤﯿﻦ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ در ﻃﻮل دورة ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻋﻠﯿﺘﯽ دو ﻃﺮﻓـﻪ ﺑـﯿﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿـﺮ اﻗﻠـﯿﻢ و ﻣﺼـﺮف اﻧﺮژي در ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي اﺻﻠﯽ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﺮان وﺟﻮد ﻧﺪاﺷﺘﻪ و ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﯿﺘﯽ ﯾﮏ ﻃﺮﻓﻪ از ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺑﻪﺳﻮي ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي، ﺧﺎﻧﮕﯽ و ﺗﺠﺎري وﺟﻮد دارد و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺑﺮاي اﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎي ﺑﺎ دﻣﺎي ﺑـﺎﻻﺗﺮ از ﻣﺘﻮﺳـﻂ ﻋﻠﯿـﺖ دو ﻃﺮﻓﻪ و ﻗﻮيﺗﺮي ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي و ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ)دﻣﺎ و ﺑـﺎرش( وﺟـﻮد دارد و از ﺳـﻮي دﯾﮕـﺮ اﻓـﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي ﺑﺎﻋﺚ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯿﺰان co2 ﺟﻮ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖآﻣﺪه ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﻣـﯽﺷـﻮد ﺑـﻪ ﻣﻨﻈـﻮر ﮐﺎﻫﺶ آﻻﯾﻨﺪهﻫﺎي زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ، اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﮐﺎراﯾﯽ و ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ اﻧﺮژي ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳـﯽ ﻗـﺮار ﮔﯿـﺮد. ﺑﻬﯿﻨـﻪﺳـﺎزي ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي و اراﺋﻪ ﻣﺤﺮكﻫﺎﯾﯽ در ﺟﻬﺖ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ از اﻧﺮژي ﭘﺎك و ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ در اﯾـﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﯿﺮد. و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬاري ﺑﺮاي ﮐﺎﻫﺶ اﺛﺮات ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ، ﺑـﻪ ﺻـﻮرت اﺳـﺘﺎﻧﯽ و ﺑـﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ اﺳﺘﺎن ﻣﻮرد ﻧﻈﺮ اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﻮد.

An ecosystem is considered to be one of the cornerstones of human life, with its evolution and development in the world. The phenomenon of climate change, which is mainly related to the increase of air pollutants in the atmosphere, is one of the most prominent examples in this regard. Climate change is any change in the climate component such as temperature, precipitation and wind that occurs over many decades. The use of energy carriers is a major contributor to the emission of air pollutants and thus affects climate change. Climate change also has costs for different sectors of the economy, which increase energy consumption from its examples. Since Iran has been exposed to severe climate change in recent years and energy consumption in its various economic sectors has risen and is one of the most important countries in the field of air pollutants emission, in this study, Investigating causality The interactions between climate change and energy consumption in different economic sectors are addressed. For this purpose, temperature and precipitation data and energy consumption of 28 provinces have been used for the period 1370 to 1395. To investigate the two-way causality between climate change and energy consumption, the Toda-Yamamoto causality method, which is an adjusted Var, is used. The estimated results showed that during the studied period, there is no causal relationship between climate change and energy consumption in the main sectors of Iran's economy, and there is only one-way uncertainty about temperature on energy consumption in the agricultural sector and energy consumption in the domestic and commercial sectors, an‎d also for provinces with higher than average temperatures there is a stronger and more bilateral causality between energy consumption and climate change variables (temperature and precipitation), and on the other hand, increasing energy consumption increases the amount of 〖co〗_2(carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere