سناريوهاي تحليلي آينده بانكداري ايران با تركيب قابليت هاي ظرفيت جذب دانش و آينده نگاري شركتي

The Effect of Knowledge Absorptive Capacity and Corporate Foresight Capabilities on Organizational Performance (Study of Case: Iranian Banking System)

هدف اين مقاله پاسخ به اين سؤال است كه سناريوهاي آينده صنعت بانكداري ايران با تركيب قابليت هاي ظرفيت جذب دانش و آينده نگاري شركتي چيست؟ در مقاله ضمن مرور آينده صنعت بانكداري، ظرفيت جذب دانش و آينده نگاري شركتي با دو رويكرد فرايندي و محتوايي(به عنوان يك قابليت و توانايي)، به بررسي مؤلفه ها و ابعاد آينده نگاري شركتي از منظر محتوايي پرداخته شده است. روش: پژوهش از لحاظ هدف كاربردي و از حيث زماني از نوع مقطعي ميباشد. ابزار گردآوري دادهها شامل روش هاي كتابخانه اي و دلفي فازي از خبرگان دانشگاهي و صنعت ( 15 خبره) بوده و با تكنيك مدلسازي ساختاري تفسيري ( ISM ) و نرم افزار ميك مك روابط بررسي شده است. يافته ها: نتايج حاكي از آن است كه عملكرد را ميتوان با تركيب قابليتهاي ظرفيت جذب دانش و آينده نگاري شركتي ارتقاء داد. در پايان نيز از تركيب دو قابليت، چهار سناريوي محتمل شامل كعبه آمال، كانون آلام، نزول جلال و عروج بي بال، ترسيم و تحليل شده است.

Objective: This article aimed at promoting banking industry performance by combining capabilities of knowledge absorptive capacity and corporate foresight in organizations, as well as its effects on innovation and strategic decision-making. Initially, introducing knowledge absorptive capacity and corporate foresight, different dimensions of the construct are mentioned. Then, the relationship between knowledge absorptive capacity and corporate foresight and innovation and strategic decision-making is examined and its effect on organizational performance is analyzed through a structural model. Methods: Using questionnaire and financial analyses, data was collected from the banking industry of Iran including 30 banks (Commercial Government banks, Specialized Government banks, Gharzolhasaneh and Non-Government Banks). Reliability of the measurement model with 93 samples was confirmed through descriptive, inferential statistical analyses and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and Importance-Performance Map Analysis (IPMA), using SPSS and SmartPLS software. Finding: The results indicate that there is a significant relationship between knowledge absorptive capacity and corporate foresight. Knowledge absorptive capacity is also indirectly affecting organizationl performance through innovation, corporate foresight and strategic decision-making. Corporate foresight is directly affecting organizational performance and is also indirectly affecting organizational performance with mediation of innovation and strategic decision-making.