تحليل ناپايداري سكونت گاه هاي انساني در پهنه سرزمين با تأكيد بر مديريت ريسك خطر زلزله (مورد پژوهشي: شهرستان گچساران)

Analysis of Instability of Human Settlements in Land Area with Emphasis on Earthquake Risk Management (Case study: Gachsaran County)

ﺳﮑﻮﻧﺘﮕﺎهﻫﺎي ﺷﻬﺮي و روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﮔﭽﺴﺎران ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ ﻗﺮارﮔﯿﺮي ﺑﺮ روي ﮐﻤﺮﺑﻨﺪ ﮔﺴﻞ ﻓﻌﺎل و ﻏﯿﺮﻓﻌﺎل و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺑﺮﺧﻮرداري از ﻧﻘﺎط ﻟﺮزهﺧﯿﺰ، ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺧﻄﺮ وﻗﻮع زﻣﯿﻦﻟﺮزه اﺳﺘﺎن ﺑﻪ ﺣﺴﺎب آﯾﻨﺪ. از اﯾﻦ رو ﻫﺪف از ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ، ﭘﻬﻨﻪﺑﻨﺪي و ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﯿﺰان آﺳﯿﺐﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺳﮑﻮﻧﺘﮕﺎهﻫﺎي ﺷﻬﺮي و روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﮔﭽﺴﺎران در ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﺧﻄﺮ وﻗﻮ ع زﻣﯿﻦﻟﺮزه ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻣﺠﻤﻮع ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ، ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﮔﭽﺴﺎران داراي ﻧﻘﺎط ﻟﺮزهﺧﯿﺰي ﺑﺴﯿﺎري اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﺷﻤﺎل ﻏﺮﺑﯽ ﻣﺘﻤﺮﮐﺰ و داراي 69 ﮐﯿﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮ ﮔﺴﻞ ﻓﻌﺎل ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ از ﻧﻮع ﮔﺴﻞ ﻓﻌﺎل ﺗﺮاﺳﺘﯽ و روراﻧﺪه ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ از ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺖ 3036 ﮐﯿﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﮔﭽﺴﺎران، 812/07 ﮐﯿﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮﻣﺮﺑﻊ، داراي ﺧﻄﺮ ﻟﺮزهﺧﯿﺰي ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﺑﺎﻻ، 815/15 ﮐﯿﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮﻣﺮﺑﻊ از ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﮔﭽﺴﺎران داراي ﺧﻄﺮ ﻟﺮزهﺧﯿﺰي ﺑﺎﻻ، 780/97 ﮐﯿﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮﻣﺮﺑﻊ داراي ﺧﻄﺮ ﻟﺮزهﺧﯿﺰي ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ، 441/78 ﮐﯿﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻣﻌﺎدل 14/55 درﺻﺪ از ﮐﻞ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن داراي ﺧﻄﺮ ﻟﺮزهﺧﯿﺰي ﮐﻢ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ 186/11 ﮐﯿﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮ از ﮐﻞ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﺑﺪون ﺧﻄﺮ زﻟﺰﻟﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺷﻬﺮ دوﮔﻨﺒﺪان ازﻧﻈﺮ وﻗﻮع زﻟﺰﻟﻪ در ﭘﻬﻨﻪ ﺧﻄﺮ ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﺑﺎﻻ ﻗﺮار دارد ﮐﻪ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺧﻄﺮآﻓﺮﯾﻦ و ﻣﺸﮑﻞزا ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ ﺧﻄﺮ زﻟﺰﻟﻪ در ﺳﮑﻮﻧﺘﮕﺎهﻫﺎي روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ ﻧﯿﺰ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ 42/29 درﺻﺪ از روﺳﺘﺎﻫﺎي ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن، در ﻧﻮاﺣﯽ ﺑﺎ ﺧﻄﺮ ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﺑﺎﻻي زﻟﺰﻟﻪ، 28/17 درﺻﺪ در ﭘﻬﻨﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺧﻄﺮ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﯾﺎد، 2/36 درﺻﺪ در ﭘﻬﻨﻪ ﺑﺪون ﺧﻄﺮ و 9/45 درﺻﺪ در ﭘﻬﻨﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺧﻄﺮ ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ زﻟﺰﻟﻪ ﻗﺮار دارﻧﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ راﻫﺒﺮدي ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ داﺧﻠﯽ و ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻣﺠﻤﻮع ﻧﻘﺎط ﺿﻌﻒ ﺑﺎ وزن 0/491 داراي ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ اﻣﺘﯿﺎز و اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋي ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮏ S-HP، راﻫﺒﺮد ﺗﺪاﻓﻌﯽ WT ﺑﺎ وزن 0/912 ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. درﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ ﺑﺮاي ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺧﺴﺎرت ﺟﺎﻧﯽ و ﻣﺎﻟﯽ، اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋيﻫﺎ و راﻫﺒﺮدﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺑﺤﺮان در ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﮔﭽﺴﺎران ﺑﻪ ﭼﻬﺎر راﻫﺒﺮد ﺗﻬﺎﺟﻤﯽ، ﺗﻨﻮع، ﺑﺎزﻧﮕﺮي و ﺗﺪاﻓﻌﯽ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ ﺷﺪ.

Gachsaran urban and rural settlements Due Put on Active and passive fault belt and also Having Seismic points, Has caused One of the most important areas of risk for earthquakes in the province. The aim of the present study, Gachsaran city zoning and Vulnerability Assessment is the danger of earthquakes. Based on studies,Gachsaran city has many points of seismicity is concentrated in the northwest and With 69 km fault is active That kind of thrust and thrust fault is active.The aim of the present study, Gachsaran city zoning and Vulnerability Assessment is the danger of earthquakes. Based on studies,Gachsaran city has many points of seismicity is concentrated in the northwest and Has 69 active fault That kind of thrust and thrust fault is active. The results show An area of 3036 square kilometers of the city of Gachsaran, 07/812 km, It has a very high seismic risk, 15/815 square kilometers of the city of Gachsaran a risk of high seismicity, 97/780 square kilometers of seismic risk average, 78/441 square kilometers, equivalent to 55/14 percent The whole city has a low seismic risk Also 11/186 km of the city without the risk of earthquakes. Also Dogonbadan of earthquake risk zone is very high which can be dangerous and problematic. The spatial analysis of earthquake In rural and village settlements Shows that 29/42% of the villages and towns of the city, in areas with very high risk of earthquake, 17/28% in the high risk zone average, 36/2 percent and 45/9 percent in areas without risk of hazard earthquakes are low The strategic evaluation of internal and external factors show that a total of weaknesses 491/0 rated weight and the proposed strategy of the techniques S-HP, WT defensive strategy is 912/0 by weight.