ارائه مدلي كيفي براي بررسي رابطه سطوح مهاجرت با امنيت

Provide a qualitative model to examine the relationship between migration levels and security

اﻣﺮوزه ﺑﺎ ﺗﻘﻮﯾﺖ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻤﻬﺎي ﺣﻤﻞوﻧﻘﻞ و اﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﯽ، ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت در ﺳﻄﻮح ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺗﺴﻬﯿﻞ و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮات آن در ﺟﻮاﻣﻊ ﻣﺒﺪا و ﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﻧﯿﺰ ﻧﯿﺰ ﻣﻮرد ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻣﺤﻘﻘﺎن زﯾﺎدي ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﺮان، ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت از دو ﺟﻨﺒﻪ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮان ورودي و ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮان ﺧﺮوﺟﯽ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ دارد. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻮﻗﻌﯿﺖ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋﯾﮏ اﯾﺮان و ﻧﺎاﻣﻨﯽﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻣﺠﺎور، ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﯾﻦ ﭘﺪﯾﺪه از ﻧﻈﺮ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﺑﺮ اﻣﻨﯿﺖ اﻫﻤﯿﺖ وﯾﮋهاي دارد؛ ﻟﺬا ﻫﺪف از اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ اراﺋﻪ ﻣﺪﻟﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت ﺑﺎ ﻣﻮﻟﻔﻪﻫﺎي اﺻﻠﯽ اﻣﻨﯿﺖ اﺳﺖ. اﻣﻨﯿﺖ ﻣﻠﯽ ﺑﺎ ﭼﻬﺎر ﻣﻮﻟﻔﻪ اﻣﻨﯿﺖ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ و ﻧﻈﺎﻣﯽ، اﻣﻨﯿﺖ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ، اﻣﻨﯿﺖ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و اﻣﻨﯿﺖ ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮕﯽ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ و ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت در ﺳﻄﻮح ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻠﯽ، درون ﮐﺸﻮري و ذﻫﻨﯽ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. روش ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﮐﺘﺎﺑﺨﺎﻧﻪاي ﺑﻮد ﮐﻪ ﭘﺲ از ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ، ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ و ﻣﺪل ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻣﯽ ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ ﺷﺪ و ﺑﺎ ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار وﻧﺴﯿﻢ2 ﺗﺮﺳﯿﻢ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت در ﺳﻄﺢ ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻠﯽ ﻋﻤﺪﺗﺎً ﺑﻪ ﺷﮑﻞ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت ﻧﯿﺮوﻫﺎي ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺺ و ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪدار از ﮐﺸﻮر و ورود ﻧﯿﺮوﻫﺎي ﺑﺪون ﺷﻐﻞ و ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺸﻮر اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاي ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮﯾﻦ ورودي ﺑﻪ ﮐﺸﻮر، ﻻزم اﺳﺖ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت ﺗﺤﺖ ﮐﻨﺘﺮل ﻗﺮار ﮔﯿﺮد و ﻗﻮاﻧﯿﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ روﻧﺪ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت و اﺛﺮات اﻣﻨﯿﺘﯽ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮﯾﻦ را ﮐﺎﻫﺶ دﻫﺪ. ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪه ﮔﻮﯾﺎي ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮات ﻧﺎﻣﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻠﯽ و ذﻫﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ اﻣﻨﯿﺖ ﮐﺸﻮر اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ روﻧﺪ ﺻﻌﻮدي اﯾﻦ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮﺗﻬﺎ ﻻزم اﺳﺖ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ آن در اوﻟﻮﯾﺖ اﻗﺪام ﻗﺮار ﮔﯿﺮد. ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت در ﺳﻄﺢ درون ﮐﺸﻮري از ﺟﻨﺒﻪﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﯽ اﺛﺮات ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﯽ ﺑﺮ اﻣﻨﯿﺖ ﮐﺸﻮر دارد. ﺟﻨﺒﻪ ﻧﺎﻣﻄﻠﻮب آن ﺣﺎﺷﯿﻪ ﻧﺸﯿﻨﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎﯾﺴﺘﯽ ﮐﻨﺘﺮل ﺷﻮد و اﺛﺮات ﺳﻮء اﻣﻨﯿﺘﯽ آن ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﺑﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﺟﺮﯾﺎﻧﻬﺎي ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮﺗﯽ در ﺳﻄﻮح ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻠﯽ و ﻓﺮدي ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﺗﺒﻠﯿﻐﺎت رﺳﺎﻧﻪاي و ﺟﻨﮓ ﻧﺮم و اﯾﺠﺎد ﺗﻤﺎﯾﻞ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت ﺗﺸﺪﯾﺪ ﺷﺪه و ﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﻧﺮم و ﻫﻨﺮﻣﻨﺪاﻧﻪ دارد و ﺑﺎﯾﺴﺘﯽ ﺗﻤﺎﯾﻞ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت ﮐﻨﺘﺮل ﮔﺮدد.

Strengthening transportation and information systems has facilitated and increased migration . The study of its effects has also been considered by many researchers. Immigration in Iran can be examined from two aspects: incoming immigrants and outgoing immigrants. Special strategic position of Iran and the insecurities of neighboring countries caused the study of this phenomenon in terms of impact on security has become particularly important; so the purpose of this research is to provide a qualitative model to investigate the relationship between migration and the main components of security. National security was considered with four components of political and military security, social security, economic security and cultural security, and migration was analyzed at international, domestic and subjective levels. The research method was library which led to find effective variables and after analyzing led to develop the conceptual model that was drawn with VENSIM software. This study showed that international migration is mainly in the form of migration of specialized and capitalist people from the country and the entry of unemployed and poor people into the country. For immigrants entering the country, it is necessary to control the flow of immigration and appropriate laws and strategies in their implementation can reduce the harmful effects of these immigrants. The proposed model shows the negative effects of international and mental migration on the security of the country. Due to the upward trend of migration, it is necessary to pay attention to it as a priority. Intra-country migration has positive effects on the country's security in various aspects. The marginalization,must be controlled in order to reduce bad effects. The migration flows at the international and individual levels are intensified under the influence of media propaganda and soft war and need a soft and artistic confrontation and the desire to migrate should be controlled.