تأثير عملكرد صندوق‌هاي سرمايه‌گذاري بر مديريت سود پويا در عرضه اوليه

The effect of Mutual Fund Performance on Dynamics of Earnings Management in IPOs

هدف: اين پژوهش بررسي تأثير عملكرد صندوق‌هاي سرمايه‌گذاري بر مديريت سود پويا در مرحله عرضه اوليه در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران پرداخته است. روش: در اين راستا نمونه‌اي شامل 100 صندوق سرمايه‌گذاري طي سال هاي 87 تا 98 به روش تحليل-همبستگي مورد بررسي قرار گرفته است. جهت اندازه‌گيري مديريت سود پويا از مدل گلدسون (2019) و جهت اندازه‌گيري عملكرد صندوق‌ها از معيارهاي مدرن (شارپ، ترينر، جنسن، ترينر تعديل شده، جنسن تعديل شده) و فرامدرن (سورتينو، پتانسيل مطلوب، M2، نسبت ارزيابي) استفاده شده است. يافته‌ها: نتايج حاصل از پژوهش بيانگر اين امر است كه عملكرد مطلوب صندوق‌هاي سرمايه‌گذاري تأثير منفي و معناداري بر مديريت سود پويا در عرضه اوليه و پس از آن مي‌گذارد و عملكرد ضعيف صندوق‌هاي سرمايه‌گذاري در مرحله عرضه اوليه تأثير معناداري بر مديريت سود ندارد ولي در دوره پس از عرضه اوليه تأثيري مثبت ومعنادار دارد. نتيجه گيري: مديران شركت‌هاي با عملكرد مطلوب بر مبناي فرضيه هزينه سياسي تمايل به مديريت سود كاهشي در مرحله عرضه اوليه و مديران شركت‌هاي با عملكرد ضعيف بر مبناي فرضيه علامت‌دهي در بازار سرمايه تمايل به مديريت سود افزايشي در مرحله پس از عرضه اوليه دارند.

Objective: Earnings management can be motivated by capital market, political, contractual, tax, agency. In the capital market incentives that are considered in this study, in the IPOs, because the possibility of access to information for investors is very limited and the risk of information asymmetry for investors and determine the intrinsic value of relevant stocks is high. Therefore, Managers are probably motivated to earning management in the last period before the offering of shares using optional. According to the political hypothesis, companies with good performance usually try to manage declining earnings but companies with poor performance, according to the signaling hypothesis tend to manage incremental earnings in IPOs after earning management because cash profits in these companies are low, as cash flows may not be enough to hide the effect of the returned accruals. Therefore, in this study, the effect of mutual fund performance of dynamic earnings management at IPOs and after has been studied. According to the theoretical foundations and research background, two hypotheses have been proposed and evaluated. Hypothesis 1: Mutual fund performance has a significant effect on dynamic earnings management in IPOs. Sub-hypotheses: 1. Good performance of mutual funds during the IPOs has a significant effect on dynamic earnings management. 2. Poor performance of mutual funds during the IPOs has a significant effect on dynamic earnings management. Hypothesis 2: Mutual fund performance has a significant effect on dynamic earnings management in the period after the IPOs. Sub-hypotheses: 1. Good performance of mutual funds in the post-IPOs period has a significant effect on dynamic earnings management.2. Poor performance of mutual funds in the post-IPOs period has a significant effect on dynamic earnings management. Methods: The statistical population of this study includes all Mutual funds listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and the statistical sample includes 100 Mutual funds during the years 2009 to 2020, which have been selected by systematic elimination method. In this study, the model of Gledson (2019) was used to estimate the Dynamics of Earnings Management, Modern criteria (Sharp, Trainer, Jensen, Modified Trainer, Modified Jensen) and meta-modern (Sortino, Optimal Potential, M2, Evaluation Ratio) was used to estimate the Mutual Fund Performance. Also, to test the research hypotheses, combined data and multivariate regression using the panel with the fixed effects method based on generalized least squares method have been employed. Results: The results show that the good performance of Mutual funds has a negative effect on dynamic earnings management in the IPOs and after, and the poor performance of mutual funds in the IPOs has no significant effect on earnings management, but It has a positive effect in the after the IPOs. Conclusion: Based on the results obtained, good performance mutual funds use earning management decreasing methods to determine lower intrinsic values in the market, which is consistent with the political cost hypothesis. On the other hand, mutual funds with poor performance during the IPOs is consistent with the motivation of signaling in the capital market. Under capital market pricing rules, the minimum price is proposed and offered because of future ambiguities about the intrinsic value of the stock offered in the IPOs. However, after the IPOs to achieve in order to compensate for their poor performance and maintain a position in the capital market, they are required to increase earning management, and if they cannot improve their poor performance and sufficient cash flows to Concealment of the effect of accruals returned to the fund. The use of incremental earnings management in subsequent periods of activity will have an adverse effect on the results of their performance. Given that earnings management can affect future cash flows and the relationship between current and future earnings, it is recommended that investors and financial analysts pay sufficient attention to the incentives that affect earnings management because decision-making is based on managed earnings. May not lead to good results; Therefore, according to the results of this study, investors and financial analysts are advised to pay more attention to the performance of investment funds in the IPOs and after, because if they can, by examining the incentives of well-performing funds in the IPOs. This will lead to abnormal profits for the stakeholders. Profits will be incremental, which in the next periods of activity will have an adverse effect on performance results and therefore gain unusual losses for investors.