پديد آورندگان :
شكوهي فرد، سيامك دانشگاه پيام‌نور - گروه اقتصاد، تهران، ايران , ابوالحسني، اصغر دانشگاه پيام‌نور - گروه اقتصاد، تهران، ايران , فرهنگ، اميرعلي دانشگاه پيام‌نور - گروه اقتصاد، تهران، ايران
كليدواژه :
شكنندگي مالي , فساد , ايران , رگرسيون كوانتايل
چكيده فارسي :
هدف: بحران‌هاي مالي به سرعت مي‌توانند بخش واقعي اقتصاد را تحت تأثير قرار داده و براي اقتصاد آسيب زننده باشند. از اين‌رو شايسته است كه مقابله با اين بحران‌ها و همچنين آمادگي در مقابل آن‌ها جزو مهم‌ترين الويت‌هاي اقتصادي قرار داده شوند. شايان ذكر است در چنين شرايطي، مفاهيمي همچون شكنندگي مالي اهميت پيدا مي‌كند كه از جمله مهم‌ترين عوامل تأثيرگذار بر آن نيز، فساد است.
روش: در اين پژوهش، با استفاده از روش رگرسيون كوانتايل، تأثير فساد بر شكنندگي مالي در بازه زماني 1399 -1391 مطالعه شده است. جامعه آماري اين تحقيق شامل شركت‌هاي فعال در بازار بورس اوراق بهادار تهران بوده كه از بين اين شركت‌ها، 86 شركت به عنوان نمونه تحقيق انتخاب گرديده‌اند.
يافته‌ها: نتايج برآورد مدل نشان داد كه بالا بودن سطح فساد (پايين بودن شاخص ادراك فساد)، شكنندگي مالي شركت‌ها را افزايش داده و از اين‌رو ناكارآيي فساد تأييد مي‌گردد. زيرا فساد به اشكال مختلف نظير اخذ رشوه براي اعطاي امتيازي ويژه به شركت‌هاي خاص، اعطاي وام كم بهره و همچنين حمايت‌هاي مالي و مالياتي از برخي شركت‌ها در مواجهه با بحران‌هاي مالي بر شكنندگي مالي شركت‌ها تأثيرگذار است. تأثير دارايي‌هاي ملموس و همچنين دارايي‌هاي ثابت شركت‌ها بر شكنندگي مالي منفي و معنادار است. تأثير اهرم مالي بر شكنندگي مالي شركت‌ها مثبت و معنادار است. رشد اقتصادي نيز تأثيري منفي بر شكنندگي مالي شركت‌هاي مورد مطالعه دارا است. همچنين تأثير تورم بر شكنندگي مالي شركت‌هاي مورد مطالعه مثبت و معنادار است.
نتيجه‌گيري: بالا بودن سطح فساد، شكنندگي مالي شركت‌ها را افزايش مي‌دهد؛ زيرا بالا بودن شاخص ادراك فساد (پايين بودن سطح فساد) با سطح بالاتري از شاخص Z- Score(پايين بودن شكنندگي مالي) همراه بوده و در نتيجه ديدگاه دوم تأثير فساد بر اقتصاد يا همان نظريه ناكارآيي فساد تأييد مي‌گردد.
چكيده لاتين :
Objective: Financial crises can quickly affect the real sector of the economy and be detrimental to the economy. Therefore, dealing with these crises as well as preparing for them should be among the most important economic priorities. It is worth noting in such a situation, concepts such as financial fragility become important which is one of the most important factors affecting corruption.
Methods: In this study, using the quantitative regression method, the effect of corruption on financial fragility in the period 2012-2021 has been studied. The statistical population of this research is includes companies active in the Tehran Stock Exchange market, among these companies, 86 companies were selected as the research sample.
Results: The results of model estimation showed that high level of corruption (low level of corruption perception index) increases the financial fragility of companies and therefore confirms the inefficiency of corruption. Because corruption in various forms such as taking bribes to grant special privileges to a particular company, low-interest loans and financial and tax protections of some companies in the face of financial crises affect the financial fragility of companies. The size of companies also had a negative effect on financial fragility, but this effect was not statistically significant at the 5% level. The impact of tangible assets as well as fixed assets of companies on financial fragility is negative and significant. Because the increase in the level of fixed and tangible assets of companies indicates the high (increase) of total assets of the company and generally increases their ability to cope with financial crises as well as bankruptcy, thereby reducing the financial fragility of companies. The effect of financial leverage on the financial fragility of the company is positive and significant. Because the higher the financial leverage of the company and in other words, the higher the corporate debt compared to its assets, the higher the probability of financial crisis and the risk of bankruptcy in the companies under study in the face of economic cycles. Economic growth also has a negative impact on the financial fragility of the companies under study. Because the higher the economic growth rate, the higher the company's revenues due to this economic growth and the lower the probability of financial problems and shortages in the company, which in turn reduces the financial fragility of companies. Also, the effect of inflation on the financial fragility of the studied companies is positive and significant. Because rising inflation increases the total cost of companies, including the cost of purchasing raw materials and machinery, as well as other consumption and current costs, and thus increases the likelihood of financial crises and bankruptcy.
Conclusion: High levels of corruption increase the financial fragility of companies. Because the high corruption perception index (low level of corruption) is associated with a higher level than the Z-Score index (low financial fragility) and as a result, the second view confirms the impact of corruption on the economy or the theory of corruption inefficiency. Therefore, in order to reduce financial fragility, the relevant institutions should pay serious attention to dealing with corruption.
