طراحي مدل پويا بازارهاي مالي ايران با استفاده از پويايي شناسي سيستم

Designing A Dynamic Model of Iranian Financial Markets Using System Dynamics

ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎي ﮐﻼن و ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪﯾﺎﻓﺘﮕﯽ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻧﺸﺎن از ﻧﺎﮐﺎراﻣﺪي ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﯽ دارد. ﺑﺨﺶ ﻣﺤﺪودي از ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاري در ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﮐﺎﻻ و ﺧﺪﻣﺎت اﺧﺘﺼﺎص ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ و ﺑﺨﺶ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﻬﯽ از آن ﺟﺬب ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖﻫﺎي ﺳﻮداﮔﺮاﻧﻪ در ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﻏﯿﺮﻣﻮﻟﺪ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاي اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر اﺑﺘﺪا ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از دادهﻫﺎي ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﻃﻼ، زﻣﯿﻦ و ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن، ﺑﺎزار ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ، ﺳﭙﺮدهﮔﺬاري در ﺑﺎﻧﮏ، ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎ و ﭘﯿﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاري در ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﻣﺪل ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ و ﭘﺲ از اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﻣﺪل، ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي در اﻓﻖ ده ﺳﺎﻟﻪ )1398-1408( اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ رﻓﺘﺎر ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﯿﺖ ﻣﺪل، ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺑﺎزار ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ"، ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﭘﻮﻟﯽ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻧﻘﺪﯾﻨﮕﯽ"،"ﺳﺎﻣﺎﻧﺪﻫﯽ ﺑﺎزار زﻣﯿﻦ و ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن" و ﺳﺎﻣﺎﻧﺪﻫﯽ ﺑﺎزار ﻃﻼ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ و ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﺟﺪاﮔﺎﻧﻪ روي ﻣﺪل اﻋﻤﺎل ﺷﺪ و ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ و رﻓﺘﺎر ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎي ﻣﺪل، ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺒﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﺑﻬﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﻣﻮﻟﺪ ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﯽ اﯾﺮان اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ.

Examination of macro indicators and the level of economic development shows the inefficiency of financial markets. A limited portion of GDP is devoted to investing in the production of goods and services, and a significant portion of it is absorbed in speculative activities in unproductive financial markets. The present study has modeled the performance of financial markets using system dynamics. For this purpose, first using the financial markets data of gold, land and construction, capital market, bank deposits, market dynamics and financial consequences of investing in markets were examined. The financial markets dynamics model was designed and after model validation, simulation was performed on a ten-year horizon (1408-1398). According to the behavior of variables and model sensitivity analysis, financial market development policies including "capital market development", "liquidity reduction monetary policy", "land and building market organization" and "gold market organization" are identified and identified separately. The model was applied and the results of comparison and behavior were analyzed. According to the model findings, hybrid policies have been presented as the best policies for the development of productive financial markets based on the dynamics of Iran's financial markets.