ارزيابي تأثير امنيت بر وفاداري گردشگران به مقصد با تأكيد بر نقش ميانجي رضايتمندي و تصوير مقصد (مورد مطالعه: گردشگران خارجي شيراز)

Evaluating the effect of security on tourists' loyalty to the destination with emphasis on the mediating role of satisfaction and destination image (Case study: Shiraz foreign tourists)

تبيين موضوع يكي از مهم ترين عواملي كه مي تواند وفاداري گردشگران را تحت تاثير قرار دهد امنيت مقصد مي باشد. بر همين اساس هدف اصلي پژوهش حاضر بررسي تاثير امنيت بر وفاداري گردشگران خارجي شهر شيراز با نقش ميانجي رضايتمندي و تصوير مقصد است. روش پژوهش به لحاظ هدف، كاربردي و بر اساس ماهيت و روش، توصيفي از نوع پيمايشي است. اطلاعات مورد نياز بر اساس روش اسنادي و ميداني (ابزار پرسشنامه) گردآوري گرديد. جامعه آماري تحقيق، گردشگران خارجي بازديد كننده از شهر شيراز در سال 1398 است. حجم نمونه طبق فرمول كوكران معادل 200 گردشگر برآورد گرديد. براي توزيع پرسشنامه از شيوه تصادفي ساده استفاده شد. داده هاي گردآوري شده بر اساس روش هاي آمار توصيفي و استنباطي مورد تجزيه و تحليل قرارگرفته اند. يافته ها امنيت با ضريب 0/20 به صورت مستقيم و با ضريب 0/07 با نقش ميانجي تصوير مقصد و با ضريب 0/26 با نقش ميانجي رضايتمندي تاثير مثبتي بر وفاداري گردشگران خارجي شهر شيراز دارد. تاثير كلي امنيت بر وفاداري گردشگران خارجي نيز برابر با 0/53 است. نتايج با افزايش سطح امنيت و بهبود اين عامل در شهر شيراز شاهد افزايش وفاداري گردشگران خارجي به اين شهر خواهيم بود كه رونق هر چه بيشتر صنعت گردشگري اين شهر را در پي دارد.

Objective: The trend of urbanization in developing countries has been faced with spatial imbalances, polarization of regions and social groups, and unstable urban growth. As the instability caused by this uneven growth has led to the formation of areas of poverty in urban areas. Spatial analysis of these areas determines the extent of deprivation in different areas and prioritizes measures to improve living standards. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to investigate the existing inequalities and show the pattern of poverty in Ardabil urban blocks with emphasis on social indicators during the years 2006 to 2016 and also to investigate the factors affecting the organization of this phenomenon. Methods: The research method is spatial analysis in terms of applied purpose and approach. The statistical population of this research is the legal limits of Ardabil in 2006 and 2016 and the sample size is all the statistical blocks of the mentioned years. In order to collect research data, the information available in the statistical blocks of 2006 and 2016 in Erbil and a questionnaire of academic elites and city managers have been used. To show the situation of social poverty, spatial autocorrelation technique was used using hot spot analysis in Arc / GIS software and to analyze the pattern of social poverty distribution, Moran statistic was used. To analyze the data of the second part of the research (identifying the factors affecting the expansion and spatial organization of social poverty zones), the structural equation analysis model in AMOS software has been used Results: Based on the obtained results, out of 5142 urban blocks in Ardabil in 2006, about 53% were in a very deprived and deprived condition, 26% were in a moderate condition and about 21% were in a well-off condition. In 2016, these percentages are 46, 22, 32 among 6439 urban blocks, respectively, and this also shows that Ardabil urban blocks in terms of social indicators in 2016 compared to 2006 they are in a better situation. Conclusion: Due to the spread of urban poverty in Ardabil over the past decades, empowerment of low-income and poor in the city should be done with a multidimensional perspective (and not just paying attention to the physical dimensions). In this regard, the role of facilitator of the city management system and the realization of bottom-up planning and participatory approach is essential.