ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي اﻧﺮژي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺑﺎ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻋﺪم ﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ و ﻣﻔﻬﻮم اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻫﺪررﻓﺖ ﺗﻮان: ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪي ﻣﻮردي

Optimal planning of renewable energy systems with considering uncertainty and LPSP concept: A case study

در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ ﺑﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي اﻧﺮژي و ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪي ﺳﻮﺧﺖﻫﺎي ﻓﺴﯿﻠﯽ در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ دوراﻓﺘﺎده، ﺗﻤﺎﯾﻞ ﺑﻪ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ اﻧﺮژي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ از ﺷﺒﮑﻪ، رﺷﺪ ﭼﺸﻤﮕﯿﺮي داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ، ﭘﯿﺎدهﺳﺎزي ﻋﻤﻠﯽ ﯾﮏ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺒﯽ ﺗﻮرﺑﯿﻦ ﺑﺎدي/ ﻓﺘﻮوﻟﺘﺎﺋﯿﮏ/ ﺑﺎﺗﺮي/ دﯾﺰلژﻧﺮاﺗﻮر ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖآﻣﺪه از ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺑﺎر واﻗﻌﯽ در ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ دوراﻓﺘﺎدهي اﺳﺘﺎن ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و ﺑﻠﻮﭼﺴﺘﺎن اﺳﺖ. ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺗﻌﺪاد ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪي اﺟﺰاي ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺒﯽ در ﺣﻀﻮر ﻋﺪم ﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ و ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺗﻮان ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ، ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪي ﺳﺎﻟﯿﺎﻧﻪي ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻫﺪررﻓﺖ ﺗﻮان )LPSP( ﮐﻤﯿﻨﻪ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد. ﻣﺪل ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﺳﻪ اﻟﮕﻮرﯾﺘﻢ ازدﺣﺎم ذرات ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻟﯽ )PSO(، ﺑﺎ ﺿﺮاﯾﺐ اﻧﻘﺒﺎض )CPSO( و ﺑﻬﺒﻮدﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪي ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي )MPSO(، ﺣﻞ و ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﻗﺮار ﻣﯽﮔﯿﺮد ﮐﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن از ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﻫﻤﮕﺮاﯾﯽ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ و ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪي ﺑﻬﺘﺮ اﻟﮕﻮرﯾﺘﻢ ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي دارد. ﺟﻬﺖ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻧﻔﻮذ اﻧﺮژيﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ واﺑﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻮﺧﺖﻫﺎي ﻓﺴﯿﻠﯽ، ﻗﯿﺪ ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ ﻣﺠﺎز ﻣﺼﺮف ﺳﺎﻟﯿﺎﻧﻪي ﺳﻮﺧﺖ دﯾﺰلژﻧﺮاﺗﻮر ﺑﺮاي ﭘﯿﺎدهﺳﺎزي ﻋﻤﻠﯽ اﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﺑﺎ ﺟﻤﻊآوري اﻃﻼﻋﺎت واﻗﻌﯽ آبوﻫﻮا و در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ %1 = LPSPMax نتايج درﯾﺎﻓﺘﯽ ﭘﺲ از ﭘﯿﺎدهﺳﺎزي ﻧﺸﺎن از ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺑﺎر اﻟﮑﺘﺮﯾﮑﯽ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﯽ و ﺑﺮآورده ﺷﺪن ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ ﻗﯿﻮد ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎﺗﯽ دارد. در اﯾﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ، ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪي ﺳﺎﻟﯿﺎﻧﻪي ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ و ﻣﺼﺮف ﺳﻮﺧﺖ دﯾﺰل ژﻧﺮاﺗﻮر ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ 3974/50 و 98/33 ﻟﯿﺘﺮ در ﺳﺎل اﺳﺖ.

In recent years, the tendency to use renewable energy resources in remote areas has been raised due largely to increase in the energy demand and fossil fuel costs. In this paper, the aim is to find the optimal number of components of the off-grid hybrid PV/wind/battery/diesel system, in the presence of the load and renewable power generation uncertainty. Optimization is based on minimizing the value of the annualized cost of system, which meets the requirements of the desired loss of power supply probability (LPSP).Three various optimization algorithms including PSO, CPSO, and Modified PSO are proposed to solve the optimization problem. To exam the efficiency of the proposed model and optimization strategies, the proposed approach has been applied to a stand-alone hybrid energy system in Sistan and Bluchestan, Iran. Furthermore, the effect of different desired LPSP and optimization algorithms on the economic operation have been discussed. The results demonstrate that the MPSO has a faster solution and better performance than the PSO and CPSO. In this paper, while previous research has mainly focused on theoretical results only, for practical implementation, the maximum allowed constraint for diesel fuel consumption is added to the optimization algorithm and practical implementation has been done based on the simulation results and actual data.