ﺗﺄﺧﯿﺮ ازدواج در اﯾﺮان: ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺗﻔﺎوتﻫﺎي ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻧﯽ در اﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺮد ﻣﺮدان و زﻧﺎن

Marriage Postponement in Iran: District-level Analysis of Youth Singlehood Patterns

در ﺳﺎﻟﯿﺎن اﺧﯿﺮ، دوران ﺗﺠﺮد ﺟﻮاﻧﺎن اﯾﺮاﻧﯽ ﻃﻮﻻﻧﯽﺗﺮ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. روﻧﺪ ﻣﺘﻔﺎوت ﺗﺄﺧﯿﺮ ازدواج در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﯾﺮان، ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﭘﺮاﮐﻨﺪﮔﯽ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪاي ﻗﺎﺑﻞﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ از ﻧﻈﺮ زﻣﺎنﺑﻨﺪي ازدواج در ﺑﯿﻦ اﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎ و ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﻮر ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ، ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ و ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦﮐﻨﻨﺪهﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺮد ﺟﻮاﻧﺎن در ﺳﻄﺢ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎي اﯾﺮان ﺑﻮده و واﺣﺪ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ، 429 ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن در ﺳﺮﺷﻤﺎري ﺳﺎل 1395 اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاي اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر، وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﺗﺠﺮد ﻣﺮدان و زﻧﺎن، ﺑﺎ ﺗﻤﺮﮐﺰ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻨﯿﻦ 25-39 ﺳﺎل، در ﺳﻄﺢ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ و ﺳﭙﺲ ارﺗﺒﺎط آن ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮﺧﯽ از وﯾﮋﮔﯽﻫﺎي اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي- اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ، ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎﯾﯽ در ﻏﺮب و ﺟﻨﻮب ﻏﺮب ﮐﺸﻮر ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻧﺴﺒﺖﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺮد و در ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ، ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎﯾﯽ در ﻣﺮﮐﺰ و ﺷﻤﺎل ﺷﺮق ﮐﺸﻮر ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻧﺴﺒﺖﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺮد را ﺑﺮاي ﻫﺮ دو ﺟﻨﺲ دارﻧﺪ. ﻧﺴﺒﺖﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺮد، ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﻌﮑﻮﺳﯽ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺖﻫﺎي ﺑﺎﺳﻮادي و ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ و ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻤﯽ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﯿﮑﺎري دارﻧﺪ. ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﺬﮐﻮر، ﺑﻪﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ، 51 درﺻﺪ و 27 درﺻﺪ از ﺗﻔﺎوتﻫﺎي ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻧﯽ در وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﺗﺠﺮد ﻣﺮدان و زﻧﺎن را در داﻣﻨﻪ ﺳﻨﯿﻦ 30-39 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﻨﺪ. ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻣﺘﻮازن ﻣﻠﯽ درﺟﻬﺖ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻧﺎﺑﺮاﺑﺮي ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺗﺴﻬﯿﻞ ازدواج ﺟﻮاﻧﺎن، ﺗﻔﺎوتﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪاي و ﭘﺮاﮐﻨﺪﮔﯽ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻧﯽ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد در وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﺗﺠﺮد ﺟﻮاﻧﺎن را ﮐﺎﻫﺶ دﻫﺪ.

In recent years, the era of Iranian youth celibacy has become longer. The different trend of marriage postponement in different regions of Iran has led to the significant regional diversity in marriage timing between the provincal and district-level of the country. The purpose of this study is to examine the status and determinants of youth celibacy in the districts of Iran. The unit of analysis is 429 districts in Iran according to 2016 census. For this purpose, the proportions of single people in the districs of Iran has been studied, focusing on the ages of 25-39 years for men and women. According to the findings, some districs in the west and southwest of the Iran have the highest and in contrast, the center and northeast of the country have the lowest single proportion for both sexes. Celibacy ratios are inversely related to literacy ratio and activity rate and has a positive relationship with unemployment ratio. Independent variables explain 51% and 27% of the spatioal differences in the celibacy status of men and women aged 30-39 in Iran, respectively. Balanced national development policies to eliminate districts inequality can facilitate youth marriage and reduce regional differences in youth celibacy in Iran.