ﻣﻌﺮﻓﯽ ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﻋﺎﻣﻞﺑﻨﯿﺎن در ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﺑﺎروري ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ

Introduction of Agent-Based Modeling in Explaining Low Fertility

ﯾﮑﯽ از اﻫﺪاف ﻣﻬﻢ در ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ ﮐﻤﮏ ﺑﻪ اﺗﺨﺎذ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ و ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار در ﻣﻮاﺟﻬﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺎروري ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع ﺑﺮاي اﯾﺮان ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ ﺑﺎروري ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦﺗﺮ از ﺣﺪ ﺟﺎﻧﺸﯿﻨﯽ اﻫﻤﯿﺖ وﯾﮋهاي دارد، و در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺗﯽ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روشﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﺑﺎروري اﻧﺠﺎمﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ اﺑﺘﺪا ﺿﻤﻦ ﻣﺮوري اﺟﻤﺎﻟﯽ ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت، روشﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﺑﺎروري ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ ﻧﻘﺪ و ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﻋﺪم وﺟﻮد ﯾﮏ راﺑﻄﻪ ﺧﻄﯽ، ﯾﮑﻨﻮاﺧﺖ و ﻫﻤﮕﻦ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار ﺑﺮ ﺑﺎروري ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ و ﻋﺪم درك ﻋﻤﯿﻖ از ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪه ﺑﺎروري ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ ﻣﻮاردي ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﮐﻪ در ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت اﻧﺠﺎمﺷﺪه ﻣﺸﻬﻮد اﺳﺖ. روش ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﻋﺎﻣﻞﺑﻨﯿﺎن ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮏ اﺑﺰار ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮑﯽ و راﻫﮑﺎر ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﻧﻮﯾﺴﯽ ﮐﺎﻣﭙﯿﻮﺗﺮي ﻣﻌﺮﻓﯽ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد ﮐﻪ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻣﺤﺪودﯾﺖﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﺟﻮد در روشﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ را ﺑﺮ ﻃﺮف ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ. اﻣﮑﺎن اﯾﺠﺎد ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﯿﻦ ﺳﻄﻮح ﺧﺮد و ﮐﻼن، و ﻧﯿﺰ ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪه ﻧﻘﺎط ﻗﻮت روشﻫﺎي ﻋﺎﻣﻞﺑﻨﯿﺎن در ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﺑﺎروري ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ.

One of the important issues in demography is helping to adopt appropriate and effective policies dealing with low fertility. This topic has a special importance in Iran due to the attainment of below-replacement fertility. Using analytical methods, some studies have been conducted to analyze low fertility in recent years. In this paper, the studies explaining low fertility using analytic method are critically reviewed. The absence of a linear, uniform and homogeneous relationship between the independent variables affecting low fertility and lack of deep understanding of the complex system of lower fertility are evident in previous studies. Agent-based modeling is introduced as a technical tool and a suitable solution developed based on computer programming. This approach can easily resolve the limitations associated with analytical methods. The ability of agent-based modeling in making bridge between micro and macro levels as well as the capability of complex system modeling are the strengths that can be employed in explaining the complex system of low fertility.