مرکز منطقه ای اطلاع رساني علوم و فناوري - تحليل آسيب پذيري اجتماعي بافتهاي فرسوده شهري كلانشهر كرج در برابر بحران زلزله با استفاده از مدل ويكور (مطالعه موردي كرج كهن)

چكيده فارسي :

زﻟﺰﻟﻪ در ﺟﻬﺎن ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﺨﺮب ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﻧﻬﺪام ﺣﯿﺎت اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ ـﻤﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﻣﻄﺮح ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ و آﺳﯿﺐ ﻫﺎي ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از آن در اﺑﻌﺎد اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ وﻗﻮع زﻟﺰﻟﻪ اﺛﺮات ﻣﺘﻔﺎوﺗﯽ را ﺑﺮ ﮔﺮوه ﻫﺎ ي اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ داﺷﺘﻪ و ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻤﯽ ﺑﺎ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﺷﻬﺮوﻧﺪان دارد.ﺑﻄﻮرﯾﮑﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ آن ﻣﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﺑﺮ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﻧﺎﺑﺮاﺑﺮﯾﻬﺎي اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ در ﺟﻮاﻣﻊ ﺷﻬﺮي اﺳﺖ.ﮐﻼن ﺷﻬﺮ ﮐﺮج ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﮑﻞ وﺟﻮد 551 ﻫﮑﺘﺎر ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﻓﺮﺳﻮده ﺷﻬﺮي، ﺿﺮورت ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﺑﻌﺎد آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ را در اﯾﻦ ﺷﻬﺮ ﮔﺮﯾﺰ ﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﻣﯽ ﺳﺎزد.آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺷﻬﺮي در ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ در ﺑﺎﻓﺘﻬﺎي ﻓﺮﺳﻮده ﮐﻼن ﺷﻬﺮ ﮐﺮج ﺗﺎﺑﻌﯽ از رﻓﺘﺎرﻫﺎي اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﺷﻬﺮوﻧﺪان اﺳﺖ و در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻔﻬﻮم زﻟﺰﻟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮي اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات و در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻫﺎي اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ در داﺧﻞ ﻣﺤﻼت ﺷﻬﺮي ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد از اﯾﻦ رو ﺑﺪون آﮔﺎﻫﯽ از اﺑﻌﺎد آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ، ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺣﻮادث ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ زﻟﺰﻟﻪ اﻣﮑﺎن ﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﻧﺨﻮاﻫﺪ ﺑﻮد.ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ در ﮐﺎﻫﺶ و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ آﺛﺎر زﻟﺰﻟﻪ، در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺗﺎﮐﯿﺪ ﺑﺮ روي آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮑﯽ از اﺑﻌﺎد آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎ در ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ زﻟﺰﻟﻪ اﺳﺖ.اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻃﯿﻒ ﺑﻨﺪي آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﻣﺤﻠﻪ ﮐﺮج ﮐﻬﻦ در ﻗﺎﻟﺐ روش ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ ـﺘﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ و ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل VIKOR اﻧﺠﺎم ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ.در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ اﺑﺘﺪا ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﮔﯿﺮي ﻫﻔﺖ ﻣﺤﻠﻪ از ﮐﺮج ﮐﻬﻦ از ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﻓﺮﺳﻮده ﮐﺮج ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻃﺮح ﺗﻔﻀﯿﻠﯽ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب و ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻓﺮﻣﻮل ﮐﻮﮐﺮان ﺣﺠﻢ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪ.ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ اﺳﺎس در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺳﻨﺠﺶ آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ در ﻣﺤﻼت ﻣﻮرد ﻫﺪف ﺑﺪﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر اﺑﺘﺪا ﺷﺎﺧﺼﻬﺎي ﻣﻮﺛﺮ در آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﻣﺤﻼت ﺷﻬﺮي ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ و ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﭘﯿﻤﺎﯾﺸﯽ و اﺑﺰار ﭘﺮﺳﺸﻨﺎﻣﻪ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز ﺟﻤﻊ آوري ﺷﺪﻧﺪ و در ﻣﺮاﺣﻞ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش VIKOR ﻣﺤﻼت ﻣﻮرد ﻫﺪف ﻣﻮرد اوﻟﻮﯾﺖ ﺑﻨﺪي و در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از آﻣﺎر ﻧﺎﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮي ﻣﻮرد ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ.ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ اﺳﺎس در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺳﻨﺠﺶ آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ در ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﻗﻠﻤﺴﺘﺎن و ﮐﻼك در داﻣﻨﻪ آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﺧﯿﻠﯽ ﮐﻢ و ﻣﺤﻠﻪ ﺗﺮك آﺑﺎد در داﻣﻨﻪ آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ و داﻣﻨﻪ آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﻣﺤﻠﻪ ﺷﯿﺦ ﺳﻌﺪي و ﮐﺮج ﮐﻬﻦ ﺧﯿﻠﯽ زﯾﺎد اﺳﺖ و ﻣﺤﻼت اﺻﻔﻬﺎﻧﯽ ﻫﺎ و ﻗﻠﻤﺴﺘﺎن ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﺎ 0=QI و 883=QI ﺑﻪ ﮔﺰﯾﻨﻪ اﯾﺪه ال ﻣﺪل وﯾﮑﻮر ﻧﺰدﯾﮏ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ و از ﻧﻈﺮ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﮐﻤﺘﺮ در ﻣﻌﺮض ﺧﻄﺮ ﻗﺮار دارﻧﺪ.ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻇﺮﻓﯿﺘﻬﺎي اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ و اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ 0/37 ﻣﯿﺰان ﻃﯿﻒ آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ را در ﻣﺤﻼت ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ.ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ در ﺗﻤﺎم ﻣﺤﻼت ﻣﻮرد ﻫﺪف ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺬﮐﻮر)0/43= (P<0/001,Betaارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﺜﺒﺖ و ﻣﻌﻨﯽ دار ﺑﺎ ﻣﯿﺰان و ﻧﻘﺶ ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﮐﻨﻨﺪه آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ دارد.

چكيده لاتين :

This research was conducted with the aim of analyzing the social vulnerability of the Karaj district in the descriptive analytical method using the VIKOR model. In this research, sampling of seven neighborhoods of Karaj from the old texture of Karaj was selected on the basis of a detailed design. Based on the Cochran formula, the population size of the sample was determined. Accordingly, in this research, while measuring social vulnerability in targeted areas, firstly, identifying and defining operational indicators that affect the vulnerability of urban neighborhoods. Subsequently, using the survey method and the questionnaire, the required information was collected and then, by using the VIKOR method, the target areas were prioritized and finally analyzed using non-parametric statistics. Accordingly, in this study, while measuring social vulnerability in the results of the research, it showed that the time and place in the area of social vulnerability is very low and the area of Turkabad is in the range of medium vulnerability and the social vulnerability of Sheikh Saadi and Karaj is very high. an‎d Isfahani and Qalamstan neighborhoods with QI = 0 and QI = 883 respectively are close to the ideal model of the VIKOR model, are less vulnerable to social vulnerability indicators. The variables of human and social capacities predict 0.37 the rate of social vulnerability in the studied areas. Therefore, in all targeted neighborhoods, the mentioned indices