پديد آورندگان :
اماني، ماندانا دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي واحد اهواز - گروه جغرافيا، اهواز، ايران , برنا، رضا دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي واحد اهواز - گروه جغرافيا، اهواز، ايران , ظهوريان، منيژه دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي واحد اهواز - گروه جغرافيا، اهواز، ايران
كليدواژه :
ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ , اﺳﺘﺎن ﺧﻮزﺳﺘﺎن , ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ , ﻣﻦ ﮐﻨﺪال
چكيده فارسي :
در ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ روﻧﺪ ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ و ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﮥ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺑﺎرش ﻗﺎﺑﻞ اﻋﺘﻤﺎد در ﺧﻮزﺳﺘﺎن داده ﻫﺎي ﺑﺎرش ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ 11 اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه اﺳﺘﺎن ﻃﯽ دوره زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 25 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ )1993-2017( اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. در اداﻣﻪ ﺑﻪ ﮐﻤﮏ ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار SPSS اﺑﺘﺪا ﻣﺸﺨﺼﺎت آﻣﺎري ﺑﺎرش اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎ )ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ، ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﻫﻨﺪﺳﯽ، اﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎر، ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ و ﺗﺮﺳﺎﻟﯽ ﺷﺎﺧﺼﻬﺎي ﺳﻪ ﮔﺎﻧﻪ )DRI,PNPI, ZSIAP( ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس آﺳﺘﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﺎي ﺑﺎرﺷﯽ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ، ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي رﺧﺪاد ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ، ﻧﺮﻣﺎل و ﺗﺮﺳﺎﻟﯽ اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎ ﺑﺮاي ﻫﺮ ﯾﮏ از ﺷﺎﺧﺼﻬﺎ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﺿﻤﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎﺗﯽ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻇﺮ ﺷﺎﺧﺼﻬﺎي ﯾﺎد ﺷﺪه، ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﺎرش اﺳﺘﺎﻧﺪارد ﺷﺪه )ZSIAP( ﺑﺎ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن و ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ، ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺘﺮ ﺗﺸﺨﯿﺺ داده ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮرﺳﯿﻬﺎ آﺷﮑﺎر ﻧﻤﻮد ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﮔﺬر از ﺳﺎل 2007 و ورود ﺑﻪ دﻫﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺎﻧﯽ دوره آﻣﺎري ﻧﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺷﺪت و ﺗﮑﺮار ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﻫﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ ﺑﻠﮑﻪ ﺗﻌﺪد و ﺗﻨﻮع اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎي داراي ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ اي ﮐﻪ اﮐﺜﺮ اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎ ﺑﻮﯾﮋه ﺟﻨﻮب ﻏﺮﺑﯽ ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﻫﺎي ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮي را ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ ﮐﺮده اﻧﺪ. روﻧﺪﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻬﺮه ﮔﯿﺮي از آزﻣﻮن ﻣﻦ-ﮐﻨﺪال ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ در ﺑﺎزه زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺗﯽ، اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎي ﺑﺴﺘﺎن، ﺑﻬﺒﻬﺎن، ﺷﻮﺷﺘﺮ و دزﻓﻮل ﻓﺎﻗﺪ روﻧﺪ ﺑﻮده اﻧﺪ. اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎي اﻣﯿﺪﯾﻪ، اﯾﺬه، ﻣﺴﺠﺪ ﺳﻠﯿﻤﺎن، ﻣﺎﻫﺸﻬﺮ، آﺑﺎدان، راﻣﻬﺮﻣﺰ، اﻫﻮاز روﻧﺪ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ داﺷﺘﻪ اﻧﺪ ﯾﻌﻨﯽ ﺷﺪت ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ.
چكيده لاتين :
In this study, in order to determine the drought trend and calculate the reliable precipitation in Khuzestan, the data of annual precipitation of 11 stations in the province during the period of 25 years (2017-1993) was selected. In the next step, SPSS software was used to determine the statistical characteristics of precipitation stations (mean, geometric mean, standard deviation, coefficient of drought and drought variation of triple indices (DRI, PNPI, ZSIAP) for all stations. Then, based on the rainfall thresholds, the yearly, dry, normal, and wetting periods of the stations were calculated for each of the indices. The results showed that, comparing the corresponding computational values of the mentioned indices, the standardized precipitation index (ZSIAP) was more appropriately identified with greater reliability and reliability. Studies have revealed that, since 2007 and the entry into the final decade of the statistical period, not only the severity and frequency of droughts has increased, but also the multiplicity and diversity of drought stations have increased, so that most stations, especially the southwest, have more droughts have experienced. Drought regression using the Man-Kendall test showed that during the study period, Bostan, Behbahan, Shooshtar and Dezful stations have not been trendy. Omidieh, Izeh, Masjed Soleiman, Mahshahr, Abadan, Ramhormoz, Ahwaz have had a negative trend - the severity of droughts in these areas has increased.
