علل اختلاف داعش با جبهه النصره

Causes of ISIL's dispute with the Nusra Front

داﻋﺶ ﮐﻪ ﮔﺮوﻫﯽ ﺑﺮآﻣﺪه از اﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪه ﺑﺎ ﺧﻂ ﻣﺸﯽ ﺳﻠﻔﯽ ﺗﮑﻔﯿﺮي ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ، ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻣﺪﻋﯿﺎت رﻫﺒﺮاﻧﺶ ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل اﺣﯿﺎي ﺧﻼﻓﺖ اﺳﺖ ﺻﻒ ﺑﻨﺪي ﺳﻨﯽ ﺷﯿﻌﯽ ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ رﮐﻦ ﻓﮑﺮي داﻋﺶ اﺳﺖ و اﻧﮕﯿﺰه آﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﺮاي اﻧﺘﻘﺎم و روﯾﺎروﺋﯽ ﺑﺎ اﯾﻦ ﻋﻨﻮان ﺑﻪ ﭘﯿﺶ ﻣﯽ رود ﺑﺎ ﺷﺮوع ﻗﯿﺎﻣﻬﺎي ﻋﺮﺑﯽ ﺑﻪ رﻏﻢ ﺧﻮﺷﺒﯿﻨﯽ ﻫﺎ، ﺟﺮﯾﺎﻧﺎت دﻣﻮﮐﺮاﺗﯿﮏ اﺳﻼﻣﮕﺮا در ﮐﻮران ﺣﻮادث و ﺗﺤﻮﻻت ﺟﺎ ﻣﺎﻧﺪﻧﺪ و در ﻋﻮض ﮔﺮوه ﻫﺎي ﺗﮑﻔﯿﺮي ﻣﻮﻓﻖ ﺑﻪ ﮔﺴﺘﺮش و ﺑﺴﻂ ﺣﻮزه ﻧﻔﻮذ ﺧﻮد ﺷﺪﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻬﺎي ﮐﻪ در ﮐﻤﺘﺮ از ﭼﻬﺎر ﺳﺎل، ده ﻫﺎ ﮔﺮوه ﻧﻈﺎﻣﯽ و ﺷﺒﻪ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﯽ ﺗﮑﻔﯿﺮي ﺷﮑﻞ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻨﺪ ﻃﻮري ﮐﻪ ﻫﻢ اﮐﻨﻮن ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي وﺳﯿﻌﯽ از ﺳﻮرﯾﻪ و ﻋﺮاق در دﺳﺖ ﺟﺮﯾﺎﻧﺎﺗﯽ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ داﻋﺶ و اﻟﻨﺼﺮه و ﯾﺎ ﮔﺮوه ﻫﺎي ﺗﮑﻔﯿﺮي ﻫﻤﺴﻮ ﻗﺮار دارد. ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﭘﯿﺶ رو ﻣﯽ ﮐﻮﺷﺪ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﭘﺮدازي ﮐﻪ ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ روش ﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ آﯾﻨﺪه ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﯽ اﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﭘﺮﺳﺶ اﺻﻠﯽ ﭘﺎﺳﺦ دﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻋﻠﻞ اﺧﺘﻼف داﻋﺶ و ﺟﺒﻬﻪ اﻟﻨﺼﺮه ﭼﻪ ﺑﻮده و ﺑﻪ ﭼﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺳﻮﯾﯽ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ رﻓﺖ؟ ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎرت دﻗﯿﻖ ﺗﺮ، ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﻫﺎي ﺗﮑﻔﯿﺮي ﭼﮑﻮﻧﻪ ﭘﯿﺶ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ رﻓﺖ؟ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎرت دﻗﯿﻖ ﺗﺮ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﻫﺎي ﺗﮑﻔﯿﺮي ﭼﮑﻮﻧﻪ ﭘﯿﺶ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ رﻓﺖ و ﮐﺪام ﺗﻤﺎﯾﻼت ﻣﺮدﻣﯽ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ اﯾﻦ ﻧﻈﺎم ﻫﺎ را در آﯾﻨﺪه رﻗﻢ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ زد؟ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎي ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﮐﯽ از آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻓﺮﻗﻪ ﮔﺮاﯾﯽ و ﺑﺤﺮان دﻣﻮﮐﺮاﺳﯽ در ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﻠﯽ، رﻗﺎﺑﺘﻬﺎي ژﺋﻮﭘﻮﻟﯿﺘﯿﮑﯽ و ﻫﻮﯾﺘﯽ در ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ- اي و اﻧﻔﻌﻼل ﻧﺴﺒﯽ ﻗﺪرﺗﻬﺎي ﺑﺰرگ ﺑﻪ وﯾﮋه آﻣﺮﯾﮑﺎ در ﺳﻄﺢ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻠﻠﯽ زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﮔﺴﺘﺮش ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻦ ﺟﺮﯾﺎﻧﺎت ﺗﮑﻔﯿﺮي در ﻋﺮاق و ﺳﻮرﯾﻪ را ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﻧﻤﻮده اﺳﺖ ﮔﺴﺘﺮش ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻦ ﺟﺮﯾﺎﻧﺎت ﻓﻮق ﻧﯿﺰ ﻋﻤﻼ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﮔﺴﺘﺮش ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﻬﺎ و ﻣﻨﺎزﻋﺎت در ﺧﺎورﻣﯿﺎﻧﻪ و ﺗﺴﺮي ﭘﯿﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎي آن ﺑﻪ ﺟﻬﺎن ﻏﺮب ﺷﺪه و ﻟﺬا زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﻧﻘﺶ آﻓﺮﯾﻨﯽ و ﺗﺤﺮك ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ ﺑﺎزﯾﮕﺮان ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻠﻠﯽ را ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﻣﯽآورد.

The opposite article tries to answer the main question based on scenario planning, which is one of the most important analytical methods of future research, what are the causes of the difference between ISIL and Jabhat al-Nusra and where will it go? In other words, how will the takfiri currents go? In other words, how will the takfiri currents go, and what popular tendencies will determine the status of these systems in the future? With the start of the Arab uprisings, despite the optimism, the Islamist democratic currents remained in the throes of events and developments, and instead the Takfiri groups managed to expand their sphere of influence so that in less than four years, dozens of military and paramilitary groups Takfiris were formed in such a way that large parts of Syria and Iraq are now in the hands of currents such as ISIS and Al-Nusra or aligned Takfiri groups. an‎d the relative passivity of the great powers, especially the United States, at the international level has paved the way for the spread of takfiri movements in Iraq and Syria. The spread of the above currents has practically caused the spread of crises and conflicts in the Middle East and its consequences to the Western world, and therefore provides the ground for more role and mobility of international actors.