بررسي ميزان فشردگي در گسترش شهري خوي با استفاده از مدل ماركوف

Investigation of compaction in urban development of Khoy )based on Markov model)

ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺳﺮﯾﻊ ﭘﻮﺷﺶ زﻣﯿﻦ در ﺣﻮﻣﻪ ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎي اﯾﺮان، از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﺷﻬﺮ ﺧﻮي در دﻫﻪ ﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ ﻣﺸﮑﻼت ﻓﺮاواﻧﯽ از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﺗﺨﺮﯾﺐ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ، آﻟﻮدﮔﯽﻫﺎي زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ و رﺷﺪ ﻧﺎﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎ را در ﺑﺮداﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﮐﻪ در اﻏﻠﺐ ﻣﻮارد، اﯾﻦ ﻋﻮارض ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻏﯿﺮ اﺻﻮﻟﯽ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي اراﺿﯽ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات و ﺗﺨﺮﯾﺐ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ در ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ و اﻣﮑﺎن ﺳﻨﺠﯽ و ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ اﯾﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات و اﻟﮕﻮي رﺷﺪ ﺷﻬﺮدر ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي آﯾﻨﺪه ﻣﯿﺘﻮاﻧﺪ ﮔﺎم ﻣﻬﻤﯽ در راﺳﺘﺎي ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰي و اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ در آﯾﻨﺪه ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ، ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺗﺼﺎوﯾﺮ ﻣﺎﻫﻮاره اي ﭼﻨﺪزﻣﺎﻧﻪ ﻟﻨﺪﺳﺖ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي 2002 ،1986 و 2019 اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﺟﺎﻧﺒﯽ و ﻣﺪل زﻧﺠﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺎرﮐﻮف ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي اراﺿﯽ و ﭘﻮﺷﺶ زﻣﯿﻦ ﺑﻪ وﻗﻮع ﭘﯿﻮﺳﺘﻪ، ﻃﯽ 33 ﺳﺎل، در ﺷﻬﺮ ﺧﻮي ﻣﺪل ﺷﺪه ﺗﺎ ﺑﺎ آﺷﮑﺎرﺳﺎزي ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات، ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻞ ﺑﺮاي ﻫﺮ دوره و ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﺘﯽ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي ﻫﺎ ﻣﻮرد ﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ آﯾﺪ. ﺟﻬﺖ اﻧﺠﺎم ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ اﺑﺘﺪا ﺗﺼﺎوﯾﺮ ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺑﺎﻧﺪﻫﺎ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺐ ﺑﺎﻧﺪي ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ و اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. در اداﻣﻪ ﺑﺎ روش ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪي اﻧﺠﺎم وارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺻﺤﺖ و دﻗﺖ ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪي ﺑﺎ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﮐﺎﭘﺎ و دﻗﺖ ﮐﻠﯽ ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. در ﭘﺎﯾﺎن ﺑﺎ ﺑﮑﺎرﮔﯿﺮي ﻣﺪل ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﺎرﮐﻮف ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي اراﺿﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﺳﺎل 2036 ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه ﺣﺎﮐﯽ از ﮔﺴﺘﺮش ﺑﯽ روﯾﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه و ﺗﺨﺮﯾﺐ ﺷﺪﯾﺪ اراﺿﯽ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻃﯽ دوره 2002 ﺗﺎ 2019 و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺷﺪﯾﺪ اراﺿﯽ ﺑﺎﯾﺮ و ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻞ آﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﻪ اراﺿﯽ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه در درون ﻣﺤﺪوده و ﺣﺎﺷﯿﻪ ﺷﻬﺮ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻣﺪل ﺳﺎزي ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ در دوره 2019 ﺗﺎ 2036 ﺟﻬﺖ رﺷﺪ ﺷﻬﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ اراﺿﯽ ﮐﻮﻫﺴﺘﺎﻧﯽ و ﺑﺎﻏﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ.

Speedy land-use changes in the suburbs of Iran, in present decades, have posed many problems, including the destruction of natural resources, environmental pollution, and inadequate urban growth. In most cases, these effects were due to unprincipled land-use change. Considering the rate of change and destruction of resources in previous years and feasibility, forecasting of these changes, and the growth pattern of the city in the coming years can be a significant step towards planning and optimal use of resources in the future. In this research, using Landsat multi-time satellite images related to 1986, 2002, and 2019, side information and Markov chain model of land-use and land cover changes that have occurred during 33 years in Khoy city to expose the extent of the changes. Convert for each period and forecast the desired uses. To conduct research, first, the images used in terms of the best bands for band composition were reviewed and selected. Then, the neural network method was used to classify and evaluate the accuracy of classification with the kappa coefficient and overall accuracy. Finally, land-use changes for 2036 were predicted using the Markov forecast model. The results show the uncontrolled expansion of built-up areas and severe destruction of agricultural lands from 2002 to 2019 and the sharp decline of barren lands and their conversion into built-up lands within the city limits and suburbs. Modeling the changes also shows that from 2019 to 2036, the city will change to a Mountainous area and gardens for growth.