ارزيابي اثرات اقتصادي اقدامات دولت در دوره پاندمي كرونا (شواهدي از بازار سرمايه ايران)

Assessing the Economic Impact of Government Measures in the COVID-19 Pandemic (Evidence from the Iran Capital Market)

ﭘﺎﻧﺪﻣﯽ ﮐﺮوﻧﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان اﺗﻔﺎﻗﯽ ﻧﺎدر و ﻏﯿﺮ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ در ﺳﺮﺗﺎﺳﺮ ﺟﻬﺎن ﺑﻪ وﻗﻮع ﭘﯿﻮﺳﺖ و دوﻟﺖﻫﺎي درﮔﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻤﺎري را ﺑﺪان واداﺷـﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺎ اﻗﺪاﻣﺎت اﺿـﻄﺮاري از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪﮔﺬاري اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ، اﻃﻼعرﺳﺎﻧﯽﻫﺎي ﮔﺴﺘﺮده ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ، ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي اﻧﺠﺎم آزﻣﺎﯾﺶ، ﻗﺮﻧﻄﯿﻨﻪ اﺟﺒﺎري و ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﺴـــﺘـﻪﻫﺎي درآﻣﺪي ﺑﻪ ﮐﻨﺘﺮل و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ اﺛﺮات ﺳـــﻮء اﯾﻦ ﺑﯿﻤﺎري ﺑﭙﺮدازﻧﺪ. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از دادهﻫﺎي روزاﻧﻪ اﺳﻔﻨﺪ 1398 ﺗﺎ ﺧﺮداد 1400 ﺑﻪ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ اﺛﺮات ﭘﺎﻧﺪﻣﯽ ﺑﯿﻤـﺎري ﮐﻮوﯾـﺪ-19 ﺑﺮ ﺑـﺎزار ﺳـــﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ اﯾﺮان ﺑﺎ ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮي از ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺗﻌﺪاد ﻣﺒﺘﻼﯾﺎن ﺑﻪ ﮐﺮوﻧﺎ، ارزش ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت ﺧﺮد، ﻧﺮخ اوراق ﺧﺰاﻧﻪ و ﻧﯿﺰ ﺷــﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﻢوزن ﺑﺎزار ﺳــﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷـﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ، وﺟﻮد ﯾﮏ راﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت ﻣﯿﺎن ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ را ﺗﺄﯾﯿﺪ ﻣﯽﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ ﮐﻪ در آن ﺗﻌﺪاد ﻣﺒﺘﻼﯾﺎن ﺑﻪ ﮐﻮوﯾﺪ 19 اﺛﺮ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺑﺮ ﺷـﺎﺧﺺ ﺳـﻬﺎم ﺑﺎزار ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ داﺷـــﺘﻪ درﺣﺎﻟﯽﮐﻪ ﻧﺮخ اوراق ﺧﺰاﻧﻪ داراي اﺛﺮ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺷـــﺎﺧﺺ اﺳـــﺖ. ﻫﻢﭼﻨﯿﻦ ارزش ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت ﺧﺮد ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺰﯾﻦ ﺑﺮاي اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺿــﺮﯾﺐ ﻧﻔﻮذ ﺑﻮرس، داراي اﺛﺮ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺑﺮ ﺷـﺎﺧﺺ اﺳـﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻧﺸـﺎن از اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاران ﺑﺨﺶ ﺣﻘﯿﻘﯽ در ﺑﺎزار ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ دارد. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻓﻮق، ﺣﻘﺎﯾﻖ آﺷـﮑﺎر ﺷﺪه در ﺑﺎزه زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ را ﺗﺼﺪﯾﻖ ﻣﯽﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ. در اﻧﺘﻬﺎ ﺳـﻪ ﺷـﺎﺧﺺ اﻗﺪاﻣﺎت ﻣﺤﺪودﯾﺘﯽ-ﺣﻤﺎﯾﺘﯽ دوﻟﺖ ﻧﯿﺰ وارد ﻣﺪل ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ و ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن دادﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ اﻗﺪاﻣﺎت ﻗﺮﻧﻄﯿﻨﻪاي و ﺣﻤﺎﯾﺘﯽ دوﻟﺖ واﮐﻨﺶ ﺑﺎزار ﺳــﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺑﻮده اﻣـﺎ ﺑـﻪ ﻟﺤـﺎظ آﻣـﺎري ﻣﻌﻨـﺎدار ﻧﯿﺴـــﺖ ﮐـﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻋﺪم ﻣﻌﻨﺎداري را ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﺑﻪ دوره زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﮐﻮﺗﺎهﻣﺪت دادهﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ و ﻧﯿﺰ اﺛﺮﮔﺬاري ﻏﺎﻟﺐ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ ﻣﻨﺘﺴﺐ ﻧﻤﻮد.

The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic came as a rare, unprecedented event and governments around the globe scrambled with emergency actions including social distancing measures, public awareness programs, testing and quarantining policies, and income support packages. In this paper, using the daily data of 1398's Esfand to 1400' Khordad, we examine the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on stock exchange of Iran. The variables used in this paper are the value of retail transactions, the data of daily COVID-19 confirmed cases, Government Treasury Bills rate and the Equivalent index. The findings indicate a long-run relationship among the variables, and the COVID-19 confirmed cases have positive and significant and Government Treasury Bills rate has the negative and significant effect on Equivalent index. Notably, the value of retail transactions as the proxy for infiltrate index has the positive effect on Equivalent index. Then, three Measurement of government actions entered the model and the results show no Sensitivity to this variables and attributed to short-time period of data. Lastly, all the findings are consistent with the stylized-facts of the stock exchange in that time period.