معرفي و محاسبه شاخص تركيبي بيكاري در ايران با استفاده از منطق فازي

Introducing and Calculating the Combined Unemployment Index in Iran using Fuzzy Logic

در ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺟﻮاﻣﻊ، از ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ، وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﻧﯿﺮوي ﮐﺎر اﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺣﺪي ﮐﻪ از ﻟﺤﺎظ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬاري و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎ و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎي اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي، اﯾﻦ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺎه ﺑﺴﯿﺎر وﯾﮋهاي ﭘﯿﺪا ﮐﺮده اﺳﺖ. اﻏﻠﺐ رﺳﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎ و ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬاران ﺑﺮاي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ و ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﺑﺎزار ﮐﺎر، ﺻﺮﻓﺎً ﻧﺮخ ﺑﯿﮑﺎري را ﻣﻼك ﻗﺮار ﻣﯽدﻫﻨﺪ؛ اﯾﻦ در ﺣﺎﻟﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻧﺮخ ﺑﯿﮑﺎري ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﯾﮏ ﺟﻨﺒﻪ از ﺑﺎزار ﮐﺎر اﺳﺖ و ﺗﺄﮐﯿﺪ ﺻﺮف ﺑﺮ آن، ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻧﺎدﯾﺪه ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻋﻼﺋﻢ ﺑﺎزار ﮐﺎر ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد. ﺑﻪ ﻏﯿﺮ از ﻧﺮخ ﺑﯿﮑﺎري، ﺳﻄﺢ ﺳﻮاد، درآﻣﺪ، دﺳﺘﻤﺰد و ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪﻫﺎي ﺟﺒﺮان ﺧﺪﻣﺎت و دﺳﺘﻤﺰد، ﻣﯿﺰان رﺳﻤﯽ ﯾﺎ ﻗﺮاردادي ﺑﻮدن، ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ درآﻣﺪ و ﭼﻨﺪﯾﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ دﯾﮕﺮ ﻧﯿﺰ در ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﻧﯿﺮوي ﮐﺎر داراي اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﺮاي اوﻟﯿﻦ ﺑﺎر ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﻣﻨﻄﻖ ﻓﺎزي، ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺒﯽ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﻧﯿﺮوي ﮐﺎر و ﺑﯿﮑﺎري در اﯾﺮان ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺪﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر از 8 ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﺳﺎﺳﯽ ﺑﺎزار ﻧﯿﺮوي ﮐﺎر در دوره زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 1384 اﻟﯽ 1398 اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺒﯽ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﻧﯿﺮوي ﮐﺎر ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻄﻖ ﻓﺎزي ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ از ﺳﺎل 84 ﺗﺎ 98 در اﯾﺮان وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﻧﯿﺮوي ﮐﺎر ﺑﺎ ﻧﻮﺳﺎن زﯾﺎدي ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻪﻃﻮريﮐﻪ از ﺳﺎل 86 اﻟﯽ 90 وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﺑﯿﮑﺎري روﻧﺪ ﻧﺰوﻟﯽ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. از ﻃﺮﻓﯽ از ﺳﺎل 90 اﻟﯽ 92 روﻧﺪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺒﯽ ﺑﯿﮑﺎري ﺻﻌﻮدي ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻣﺠﺪدا از ﺳﺎل 93 ﺗﺎ 96 روﻧﺪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺒﯽ ﻧﺰوﻟﯽ ﺷﺪه و ﻣﺠﺪدا ﺻﻌﻮدي ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد.

One of the most important issues in the study and analysis of the economic structure of societies is the situation of the labor force, to the extent that in terms of policy-making and analysis of the performance of economic policies and programs, this issue has found a very special place. Most media outlets and policymakers rely solely on the unemployment rate to analyze the state of the labor market, while the unemployment rate is only one aspect of the labor market and its mere emphasis on it ignores other signs of the labor market. In addition to the unemployment rate, the level of literacy, income, wages and compensation costs of services and wages, the degree of being formal or contractual, income distribution and several other variables are also important in determining the status of the workforce. This article, for the first time, uses a fuzzy logic approach to determine the combined index of labor force status and unemployment in Iran. For this purpose, 8 basic variables of labor market in the period 1384 to 1398 have been used. The results of the combined labor force status index to fuzzy logic show that from 1984 to 1998, the labor force situation in Iran has been fluctuating a lot. Unemployment has been declining from 1986 to 1990. On the other hand, from 1990 to 1992, the trend of the combined unemployment index will be upward. Also, from 1993 to 1996, the trend of the composite index decreased and rose again.