كليدواژه :
قتل , سرانۀ توليد ناخالص داخلي , مشاركت زنان در نيروي كار , بيكاري , تورم , ضريب نفوذ اينترنت
چكيده فارسي :
قتل، هولناك‌ترين جرم خشن، يك مسئلۀ مهم اجتماعي است كه مي‌تواند تحت‌تأثير شاخص‌هاي كلان‌اقتصادي باشد؛ اما در ايران به اين موضوع كمتر توجه شده است. در اين پژوهش كوشش شده است رابطه شاخص‌هاي اقتصادي مانند سرانۀ توليد ناخالص‌داخلي، مشاركت زنان در نيروي كار، بيكاري، تورم و ضريب نفوذ اينترنت با قتل بررسي شود. اين پژوهش از نوع طولي است كه به‌روش سري‌هاي زماني انجام‌شده و طي آن رابطۀ شاخص‌هاي اقتصادي و قتل در دور‌ه 1397-1374 تحليل شده است. براي بررسي رابطۀ كوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت متغيرهاي تحقيق، از الگوي خودرگرسيوني با وقفه‌هاي توزيعي در نرم‌افزار مايكروفيت استفاده شده است. براساس يافته‌هاي تحقيق، با بهبود شاخص‌هاي اقتصادي مانند توليد ناخالص‌داخلي و ضريب نفوذ اينترنت، از ميزان قتل كاسته شده است؛ اما با بهبود مشاركت زنان در نيروي كار ميزان قتل افزايش پيدا كرده است. با استناد به يافته‌هاي تحقيق، نتيجه‌گيري مي‌شود كه قتل‌ها در ايران تحت‌تأثير شاخص‌هاي اقتصادي‌ِكلان است؛ البته بايد به اين نكته نيز توجه داشت كه اقتصاد ايران يك اقتصاد دولتيِ وابسته به نفت و متأثر از تحريم‌هاي بين‌المللي است كه بخشي از نوسان‌هاي شاخص‌هاي اقتصادي، تحت‌تأثير تشديد يا تضعيف‌شدن آنهاست كه در تحليل‌هاي نهايي بايد به آن توجه شود.
چكيده لاتين :
More than 464,000 people are killed each year worldwide. Homicide as a violent crime occurs in all countries, regardless of political, religious, or economic background. It is considered as a major public health issue. In explaining homicide, some studies have examined this phenomenon at the macro level and tried to explain the relationship between economic indicators and homicide. As a result, 4 approaches have been developed. The first view is that by improving economic indicators, homicide rates decrease. The mechanism of this negative relationship involves the effect of economic development on reducing or eliminating deprivation. Economic deprivation causes anger, frustration, and aggression. By lowering the tolerance threshold, it paves the way for murder in the society. The second view is that by improving economic indicators, homicide rates increase. The mechanism of this positive relationship is that the improvement of economic indicators would lead to urbanization, which weakens social cohesion and control by increasing heterogeneity and inequality and thus, the homicide rate rises in the society. The third view is that by declining economic indicators, homicide rates increase. The mechanism of this positive relationship originates from Durkheim's idea, which states that in the context of economic recession, one's status is impaired and individuals have difficulty in matching their expectations and abilities. The last view is that by declining economic recession, homicide rates decrease. The mechanism of this negative relationship originates from Henry and Short's idea of how people interpret this situation. If they attribute their misery and deprivation to macroeconomics and its performance, the homicide rate will decrease, but if they attribute their feelings to themselves, the homicide rate will raise. Although Iran is considered as one of the low-rate countries in terms of homicide, the homicide rate has been fluctuated during the past three decades. Since there is no longitudinal study of the relationship between economic indicators and homicide in Iran, the key question of the present study was whether there was a relationship between economic indicators and homicide rates in Iran or not.
